2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[jaichind]

Different  polls for Taipei 3rd by-election (The seat Chiang is vacating)

TVBS has KMT ahead 49-37 while an internal DPP poll has the KMT lead 42.2-40.3

[jaichind]

It looks more and more likely that 2024 will be DPP Lai vs KMT Hou.  But going further out in the future, other than Chiang, it seems the next generation of talent are all women going by up-and-coming politicians that were prominent and promoted by the MSM this election cycle

What is clear is that after 2024 KMT Chu, KMT Hou, and DPP Lai will not run for any political office if they are not elected ROC Prez.  

On the DPP side looking ahead. former DPP mayor of Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4)) Cheng has been damaged by the plagiarism scandal while Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6) mayor Chen has limited appeal up North.  

On the KMT side, it is clear that Chiang is the next superstar and would be expected to run in 2032.  Clearly, Chiang would prefer if the DPP won in 2024 and 2028 which would make his election in 2032 a breeze.

The next DPP superstar would have to be 高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-Yu) (age 42) who is the DPP MP from Taipei 4th district.  She is a DPP maverick and has very strong appeal with independent and light Blue voters.  It would not surprise me at all if 2032 it will be KMT Chiang vs DPP Kao.  If DPP Kao runs in 2032 after an 8-year KMT administration and KMT does not run Chiang I can see DPP Kao destroying KMT in a landslide given her ability to appeal to light blue voters.  Her main problem is getting through the DPP primary but in 2032 if the DPP has been out of power for 8 years they might be desperate enough to nominate Kao.


As for the generation after that on the KMT side, it would have to be Taipei City MLA 徐巧芯 (Hsu Chiao-Hsin) (age 33).    She was already worked as a spokesperson for the KMT Ma administration and is a clear superstar on the KMT side.  She is expected to run for and win a MP spot in 2024.  I can see her running as the KMT Prez candidate in 2040.


On the TPP side after Ko, there is clearly Ann Gao the new TPP mayor of Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3)  but given her outstanding legal issues, there is some cloud of her ability to rise to an even higher level of politics.  There is no one beyond that but the generation after next there is 楊寶楨(Christina Yang) (age 33) (nickname: goddess) who was a spokesperson for TPP in 2020 and just lost a race in the Taipei City assembly as TPP.  She ran in the same district as 徐巧芯 (Hsu Chiao-Hsin) and will become MLA as soon as 徐巧芯 (Hsu Chiao-Hsin) resigns to take her likely MP spot in 2024.  楊寶楨(Christina Yang) is unlikely to make it to Prez but I can see her being a VP candidate for TPP in a KMT-TPP ticket (as long as the KMT candidate is not 徐巧芯 (Hsu Chiao-Hsin)) or she joined the KMT by then running as the KMT VP candidate.
  
 

[jaichind]

The DPP regime buckling under USA pressure to increase the draft service time from 4 months to 1 year is in contrast to ROK's latest Indo-Pacific strategy where the PRC was called a "key partner".

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3204788/south-koreas-key-partner-china-barely-gets-mention-seouls-new-indo-pacific-strategy

"South Korea’s ‘key partner’ China barely gets a mention in Seoul’s new Indo-Pacific strategy"

The difference between the two, it seems to me, has to do with the nature and organization of the business sector.  Both ROK and ROC business sectors have a large level of economic integration with the PRC.  But on ROK the business landscape is dominated by organized big capital while on the ROC the business landscape is dominated by a bunch of disorganized small businesses (including a few run by my extended family.)  This means ROK even though the ROK Prez Yoon is a known PRC hawk the ROK business lobby pretty much arm-twisted Yoon to go against the USA's desires and come out and pretty much said they will not join on some sort of USA Cold War on PRC.  On the ROC the same business interests are not as organized and are not able to exert the same pressure on the ROC government to counter what the USA wants.

USA pressure on DPP Prez Tsai is so well known that at the press confidence where DPP Prez Tsai announced the extension of the draft service time from 4 months to 1 year she proactively said that this was NOT done under USA pressure.   Of course, it seems the most recent wave of USA pressure indicates that the USA is not so positive on DPP chances in 2024 after the most recent DPP rout in the 2022 local elections.  I think the USA is underestimating DPP for 2024 but the USA should be free to make the call they want based on what they think.  It is also likely that DPP Prez Tsai is telling the USA that things do not look good for the DPP in 2024 which drives USA decision making process.

[jaichind]

Hou made the first step toward running for ROC Prez in his New Year address.  In a veiled attack on DPP and USA, he said "We are not some sort of Great Power chess piece" which attacks the USA for using ROC against the PRC and attacks the DPP for allowing it to take place.

Hou has not taken a more pro-PRC position over the years mostly focusing on domestic issues and avoiding the PRC-ROC controversy as a way to appeal to light-green voters.  But getting involved in such issues is a must if he wants to run in 2024.  Hou has started to weigh in on such matters in a sign he will likely run for the KMT nomination.  His strategy seems to be to avoid the PRC part of the equation (a pro-PRC position will lose him light green support but an anti-PRC position will lose him deep blue support) and instead flip the DPP position of sovereignty against DPP by focusing on how the DPP is enabling the USA is eroding ROC sovereignty by "turning ROC into a chess piece (pawn) against PRC."  The Russia-Ukraine War actually at a certain level helps Hou's narrative given the massive economic damage Ukraine has taken the last year.

[jaichind]

After days of rumors of mafia-related vote buying in the  Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) city assembly speaker election the  Tainan City (臺南市) anti-mafia unit finally swung into action. It arrested 6 MLAs (2 DPP MLAs including the newly elected speaker, 3 KMT MLAs, and 1 NPB MLA who defected to vote for the DPP for speaker).  All of them were let go with bail. 

Note that this is the anti-mafia unit and not an anti-corruption unit that came out to do this which seems to indicate this is not just a case of vote buying but one of organized crime.  The rumors have been that 3 KMT MLAs and 2 NPB MLAs were bribed with ~1$ million each to defect to vote for the DPP candidate which in turn intimidated DPP rebels into voting DPP.  Again the mafia angle in this seems to be around the green energy sector in  Tainan City (臺南市) where a lot of local DPP MLAs and organized crime are involved in cashing in on the green energy boondoggle for years.

Will be interesting to see how this develops.  This could lead to the DPP speaker being stripped of her position.  BTW, this took place in 2014 as well but only the other way around.  In 2014 the pan-Green forces won a clear majority on the Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) city assembly but a key KMT kingpin bribed a bunch of DPP MLAs to vote for him for speaker in a stunning upset.  After a year of investigations and prosecution was the vote declared null and the KMT speaker arrested for corruption.

[jaichind]

Various news says that Hou and Guo meet several times this last couple of weeks and came to a consensus that only one of the two will run for Prez.  These stories also seem to indicate that the proto-consensus between the two is that Hou will run.  It seems Gou who is staunchly anti-Taiwan Independence was rattled by the fact that Lai is likely to be the DPP candidate and decided that Lai (versus Tsai who is a moderate on Taiwan Independence) must not be allowed to be elected in 2024.

[jaichind]

Out of the dozens of people arrested by the Tainan City (臺南市) anti-mafia unit related to the   Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) city assembly speaker election, it is said that at one of the locations they found over $300K in cash.  So there is for sure smoke here and very likely fire.

What this is really about is the Tainan City (臺南市) solar energy and waste disposal sectors.  Given DPP's anti-nuclear power stance, the DPP regime has accelerated green energy subsidies since 2016.   Since  Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) is only one of the few cities where DPP controls the mayor's office AND the city assembly there was a big push for solar energy in  Tainan City (臺南市) starting 10 years ago

This means Tainan City (臺南市) now looks more and more like this with solar panels becoming big business.  Also various local factions, pro-DPP politicians/investors and also the mafia got involved to cash in on these subsidies.


The main problem is a lot of these solar panels are getting in the way of local farmers and fisheries as well as making a lot of residential areas a lot hotter than before.  After a DPP rebel allied with the KMT captured Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) city assembly speaker spot back in 2018 the City assembly put in all sorts of limits on the expansion of solar panels in  Tainan City (臺南市).   This is why the pro-solar panels forces needed to bribe their way for the DPP to recapture the city assembly speaker spot to reverse these regulations.

[jaichind]

It seems one of the people the Tainan City (臺南市) anti-mafia unit investigating Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) city assembly speaker election wants to arrest flew the coop.  That person is the father of one of the DPP MLAs.  He ran for DPP in the 2018 Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) city assembly and lost.  In 2022 he had his daughter run and she won.  But it seems he is the real power behind his daughter and is a local political and business kingpin.  It seems he found about about the Tainan City (臺南市) anti-mafia unit plans to arrest to him and disappeared.  Now there is a manhunt for the father of a DPP MLA.

[jaichind]

The latest TVBS poll has Prez Tsai's approval/disapproval at 36/50 and PM Su's approval/disapproval at 33/54.

These numbers are not that bad for DPP Prez Tsai when compared to where she was in early 2019 and where DPP Prez Chen was in early 2007 and KMT Prez Ma was in early 2015.  In all 3 cases, the approval rating was in the 10s or 20s.

This shows that DPP Prez Tsai still has a strong personal appeal even as support for her party heads downhill.  The limelight relates to her 2020 landslide victory I think still carries her personally.

[jaichind]

The Taipei 3rd by-election is this Sunday.  This district is a Blue+3 seat given the national environment I would expect this to be a 55-45 KMT victory.  If it gets worse than that, say 60-40 KMT victory, then it would mean that the DPP base is failing to turn out. 

In the case it is something like a 60-40 KMT win, I would expect greater DPP pressure for PM Su to resign.   That scenario would go against the interests of both DPP Prez Tsai and also KMT.  DPP Prez Tsai needs PM Su to stay as a counterweight to her rival Lai who will become DPP chairperson.  KMT wants PM Su to stay since he is fairly unpopular and his being around also means the Tsai-Lai civil war continues to the benefit of the KMT for 2024.  So for this upcoming election KMT and DPP Prez Tsai would want a run-of-the-mill KMT win (55-45) while DPP VP and soon DPP chairperson Lai would want a KMT blowout (60-40.)

[jaichind]

Taipei 3rd by-election mostly counted.  KMT won but DPP outperformed expectations

KMT    52.5%
DPP     47.0%

This is a Blue+3 district so this result pretty much implies a neutral national environment.  Many, including me, expected a 55-45 KMT win.  Sort of its the pattern of outperformance for incumbents and opposition outperformance for open seats.

Given this result, it is a relief to the DPP Tsai faction which could now push for PM Su to stay in place to counter DPP VP and soon-to-be Chairperson Lai. 

[jaichind]

That is a wrap for the 2022 ROC local elections

Any new developments are really should be viewed as the 2024 ROC Prez/Legislative elections

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=535793.0