Home Towns

[True Democrat]

I was looking up presidential candidate's home counties, and I came across some interesting data:

(Third parties can mess this up somewhat)

2004:

Kerry: Suffolk County
2000: 23.6% more Dem than the state
2004: 27.9% more D

Swing of 4.3% to the Democrats

Edwards: Wake County
2000: 5.91% more D
2004: 10.32% more D

Swing of 4.41% to the Democrats

Moore County (childhood county):
2000: 14.81% more R
2004: 16.63% more R

Swing of 1.82% to the Republicans

2000:

Gore: Smith County
1996: 29.87% more D
2000: 37.9% more D

Swing of 8.03% to the Democrats

Lieberman: New Haven County
1996: 3.86% more D
2000: 4.52% more D

Swing of 0.66% to the Democrats

Bush: Midland County
1996: 37.59% more R
2000: 39.02% more R

Swing of 1.43% to the Republicans

McLennan County:
1996: 0.8% more R
2000: 8.47% more R

Swing of 7.67% to the Republicans

Cheney: Natrona County
1996: 6.09% more D
2000: 5.57% more D

Swing of 0.52% to the Republicans

1996:

Dole: Russell County (Perot got second in 92, but I did difference between Bush and Clinton)
1992: 1.24% more R
1996: 44.13% more R

Swing of 42.89% to the Republicans

Kemp: Erie County
1992: 1.06% more R
1996: 6.38% more R

Swing of 5.32% to the Republicans

1992

Clinton: Hempstead County
1988: 12.94% more D
1992: 16.9% more D

Swing of 3.96% to the Democrats

Garland County:
1988: 10.7% more R
1992: 1.27% more R

Swing of 9.43% to the Democrats

Gore: Smith County
1992: 46.16% more D
1988: 24.53% more D

Swing of 21.63% to the Democrats

1988:

Bush: Midland County
1984: 37.05% more R
1988: 43.68% more R

Swing of 6.63% to the Republicans

Harris County:
1984: 4.35% more D
1988: 2.3% more R

Swing of 6.65% to the Republicans

Quayle: Huntington County
1984: 16.29% more R
1988: 29.88% more R

Swing of 13.59% to the Republicans

Dukakis: Norfolk County
1984: 4.59% more R
1988: 4.68% more R

Swing of 0.09% to the Republicans

Bentsen: Harris County
1984: 4.35% more D
1988: 2.3% more R

Swing of 6.65% to the Republicans

Travis County:
1984: 13.48% more D
1988: 21.87% more D

Swing of 8.39% to the Democrats

I'll keep going later.  I have a feeling I messed up some of the calculations, so If i I did, just tell me.

[TomC]

Wow! Big swing for Dole.

[True Democrat]

Wow! Big swing for Dole.

Well, Perot nearly beat Bush there, so that's why it's such a big swing.  The Democratic % only decreased by 12.7% (which is still a big swing).

[True Democrat]

1984:

Mondale: Hennepin County
1980: 4.9% more D
1984: 3.31% more D

Swing of 1.59% to the Republicans

Ferraro: Queens County
1980: 5.84% more D
1984: 14.97% more D

Swing of 9.13% to the Democrats

1980:

Reagan: Los Angeles County
1976: 3.69% more D
1980: 6.75% more D

Swing of 3.06% to the Democrats

Bush: Midland County
1976: 45.28% more R
1980: 41.77% more R

Swing of 3.51% to the Democrats

Harris County:
1976: 8.37% more R
1980: 5.95% more R

Swing of 2.42% to the Democrats

1976:

Carter: Sumter County
1972: 5.89% more R
1976: 10.6% more D

Swing of 16.49% to the Democrats

Mondale: Hennepin County
1972: 0.32% more D
1976: 3.47% more R

Swing of 3.79% to the Republicans

Ford: Kent County
1972: 6.39% more R
1976: 30.55% more R

Swing of 24.16% to the Republicans

Dole: Russell County
1972: 12.09% more R
1976: 29.12% more R

Swing of 17.03% to the Republicans

1972:

McGovern: Davison County
1968: 7.63% more D
1972: 19.34% more D

Swing of 11.71% to the Democrats

Shriver: Carroll County
1968: 38.48% more R
1972: 33.14% more R

Swing of 5.34% to the Democrats

1968:

Humphrey: Hennepin County
1964: 6.01% more R
1968: 0.24% more R

Swing of 5.77% to the Democrats

Muskie: Kennebec County
1964: 0.28% more R
1968: 2.77% more D

Swing of 3.05% to the Democrats

Nixon: Los Angeles County (I know he lived in NY, but he really was from CA)
1964: 3.41% more R
1968: 1.45% more D

Swing of 4.86% to the Democrats

Agnew: Baltimore County
1964: 10.8% more R
1968: 14.5% more R

Swing of 3.7% to the Republicans

1964:

Johnson: Blanco County
1960: 17.58% more D
1964: 34.12% more D

Swing of 16.54% to the Democrats

Humphrey: Hennepin County
1960: 4.18% more R
1964: 0.28% more R

Swing of 3.9% to the Democrats

Goldwater: Maricopa County
1960: 7.64% more R
1964: 6.94% more R

Swing of 0.7% to the Democrats

Miller: Niagara County
1960: 3.61% more R
1964: 2.96% more D

Swing of 6.57% to the Democrats

1960:

Kennedy: Suffolk County
1956: 26.94% more D
1960: 28.52% more D

Swing of 1.58% to the Democrats

Johnson: Blanco County
1956: 1.49% more R
1960: 17.58% more D

Swing of 19.07% to the Democrats

Nixon: Los Angeles County
1956: 0.03% more D
1960: 1.35% more D

Swing of 1.32% to the Democrats

Lodge: Essex County
1956: 1.47% more R
1960: 6.68% more R

Swing of 5.21% to the Republicans

1956:

Kefauver: Hamilton County
1952: 10.59% more R
1956: 8.87% more R

Swing of 1.72% to the Democrats

[True Democrat]

Someone could log this into the wiki if he wants to.

[jimrtex]

Bentsen: Harris County
1984: 4.35% more D
1988: 2.3% more R

Swing of 6.65% to the Republicans

Travis County:
1984: 13.48% more D
1988: 21.87% more D

Swing of 8.39% to the Democrats

Bentsen was county judge of Hidalgo County, and then congressman from the area from 1948-54.  He then moved to Houston, and became senator in 1970, but I'm pretty sure he retained connections and land in the Rio Grande Valley.  I don't know of any particular connection to Austin.

[True Democrat]

Bentsen: Harris County
1984: 4.35% more D
1988: 2.3% more R

Swing of 6.65% to the Republicans

Travis County:
1984: 13.48% more D
1988: 21.87% more D

Swing of 8.39% to the Democrats

Bentsen was county judge of Hidalgo County, and then congressman from the area from 1948-54.  He then moved to Houston, and became senator in 1970, but I'm pretty sure he retained connections and land in the Rio Grande Valley.  I don't know of any particular connection to Austin.

Oh, I just use the political graveyard website, which lists a politician's hometown.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LBJ was born in Gillespie county.

[True Democrat]

LBJ was born in Gillespie county.

I used the county that political graveyard gave.  Also remember, the county your born in isn't necessarily your home county (John Kerry was born in Colorado).

[jimrtex]

LBJ was born in Gillespie county.

Which is just across the county line from Blanco County, where he moved when he was 5.

BTW, Eisenhower didn't know he was born in Dennison, TX.  His father had lost his job in Abilene, KS, and was working at various places in Texas.  Ike's brothers told him he had been born in Tyler.  The family moved back to Abilene, where Eisenhower grew up before going to West Point.

During WWII, when he became famous, a neighbor in Dennison recalled that the Eisenhower's had rented a house there when Ike was born.  This house is now the Eisenhower birthplace.

Is there GOP effect for 1948 and 1952 for Denver, Colorado?  Mamie was from Denver.

[jimrtex]

Bentsen was county judge of Hidalgo County, and then congressman from the area from 1948-54.  He then moved to Houston, and became senator in 1970, but I'm pretty sure he retained connections and land in the Rio Grande Valley.  I don't know of any particular connection to Austin.

Oh, I just use the political graveyard website, which lists a politician's hometown.

In his obituary in the AAS, I didn't find a mention of Austin.  The closest connection appears to be people who worked in his Austin office when he was senator.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LBJ was born in Gillespie county.

Which is just across the county line from Blanco County, where he moved when he was 5.

Oh true, very true.

But there seems to have been a noticable home town effect in both counties in '64; must have been the first (and last) time Gillespie voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for a very long time. It's part of that strongly German area isn't it?

[Rob]

But there seems to have been a noticable home town effect in both counties in '64; must have been the first (and last) time Gillespie voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for a very long time. It's part of that strongly German area isn't it?

Here's an old post of mine regarding that (in a thread started by you, as it happens):

Gillespie County is very interesting. It was settled by German immigrants who hated slavery; Gillespie voted 96 percent against secession. During the Civil War, the county was terrorized by Confederate marauders, which translated into intense, lasting loyalty to the Party of Lincoln.

After the War, Gillespie voted heavily Republican, an island of GOP sentiment in a Democratic sea. However, it didn't always support the Republicans. In both 1888 and 1892, Gillespie voted for Grover Cleveland, presumably out of distaste for Republican Benjamin Harrison's anti-immigrant and prohibitionist views. This was a powerful issue; in 1887, the county had voted over 95 percent against prohibition.

In 1896 Gillespie returned to the party fold, backing the tolerant William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan, the moral crusader. It remained strongly Republican after that, with several exceptions.

In 1912, the county voted 67 percent for the Bull Moose candidacy of Teddy Roosevelt; in 1924, Gillespie voted 49 percent for Robert LaFollette to 42 percent for Coolidge and only 9 percent for Democrat John Davis; and in 1932, FDR carried it with a staggering 80 percent of the vote, a sign of how unpopular Hoover was (Hoover had never been popular in Gillespie; Al Smith had done extremely well there, cracking 40 percent due to his opposition to Prohibition).

In 1936, Gillespie returned to its Republican tradition and voted 56 percent for Alf Landon. Since then, its been solidly Republican with the exception of 1964, when native son Lyndon Johnson carried it- and then only with an underwhelming 57 percent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(in a thread started by you, as it happens)

Clearly my memory is less than great at times

Thing about Prohibition is interesting.

[adam]

As a former resident of Harris County, TX, I find it hard to believe that Bush won with Bentsen on the opposing ticket.