GA (JMC Analytics) - Ossoff +7, Warnock +9

[MplsDem]

Also the respondents were 55% female and 45% male. Is the gender gap expected to be that big?

According to https://www.georgiavotes.com/, the early vote so far is 55.5/44.3 female.  If the Election Day vote is really that small a share of the overall turnout, this would be reasonable.

FWIW, the Trafalgar poll released yesterday has a similar gender gap.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

why would you embarrass yourself like this? even if ossoff and warnock win, this poll is ridiculous

[Young Conservative]

Obvious outlier. Respect to the pollster I guess for not herding but a bad result for sure.

[Brittain33]

Nope.

[brucejoel99]

Is that hope creeping in now that 2020 is finally coming to a close? No way this is real. At the very least, I highly doubt that these will be the final margins (& only 7% of voters voting on Election Day seems pretty sus), but hopefully this means that Ossoff/Warnock at least have the momentum on their side going into Election Day.

[wbrocks67]

If this type of result would happen, it would just prove that the GOP is way less reliable when Trump is not on the ballot.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Even if you triple the Election Day vote to 21% Loeffler and Perdue would still be (barely) behind. I would rather be the Democrats right now.

[Bootes Void]

why would you embarrass yourself like this? even if ossoff and warnock win, this poll is ridiculous

I remember Trafalgar 2016 and Quinnipiac 2017 VA race where they got the right results, but we'll see it might be too optimistic

[President Johnson]

NUT

Honestly, if I were conducting polls and this was the result, I wouldn't release these numbers. It's ditached from reality. Ossoff and Warnock could win of course, but it will be very close then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see why this is a surprise to anyone, D's in an Economic crisis do well, re 2008/ the only reason why Ds lost seats in 2020 Prez Election, was due to ACB bump, and most of our female candidates lost

D's will win back everything they lost and win VA/NJ and 2022 Congressial races, 2021/2022

[Tintrlvr]

Also the respondents were 55% female and 45% male. Is the gender gap expected to be that big?

That's pretty typical in the South as black men have terrible turnout, but black women actually have great turnout compared to white women (whereas there's not much difference in turnout between white men and white women, or among other ethnic groups more generally, so the largest gender gaps tend to be in areas with large black populations, i.e., the South). It's of course even more pronounced in Democratic primaries, where the electorate in some Southern states can be as much as 65% female.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Also the respondents were 55% female and 45% male. Is the gender gap expected to be that big?

That's pretty typical in the South as black men have terrible turnout, but black women actually have great turnout compared to white women (whereas there's not much difference in turnout between white men and white women, or among other ethnic groups more generally, so the largest gender gaps tend to be in areas with large black populations, i.e., the South). It's of course even more pronounced in Democratic primaries, where the electorate in some Southern states can be as much as 65% female.

Racial bias in policing effects black men much more then black women. Black women are the heart and soul of the Democratic party.

[MT Treasurer]

Not a good pollster.

[AGA]

Obvious garbage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not a good pollster.

Sour 🍇, if Perdue and Loeffler were ahead you want them to win, you will be eating Crow next week when Ossoff and WARNOCK both win🌊🌊🌊 don't forget Rs accelled in Prez Election they had a bump from ACB and 2018/ when Trump wasn't on ballot Rs Underperformed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obvious garbage.

You really think Perdue and Loeffler are gonna win and Mcconnell just blocked 2K checks, and both Perdue and Loeffler weren't on Senate floor to stop Mcconnell as they said they were for the checks

[Devils30]

JMC has an R bias in 538! That said, it doesn't have the track record of Selzer so you gotta be skeptical of this and then some.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are in deep trouble but the race is gonna be closer than this and the last to report are the Atl and the suburbs, the final straw was today when Mcconnell obstructed the 2K checks for the last time and Perdue and Loeffler whom claim they support the checks were no where to be found, on the Senate floor stopping Mcconnell

But, the D's should pair liability reform with these 2K checks, I don't have any objections to it

Both Ossoff/Warnock win 51/49, The End🌊🌊🌊, wave insurance for 2022 for WI, PA and NC, when Ds are gonna expand their Senate Majority

[Matty]

does anyone have any theories as to WHY this particular poll, assuming it is off, is off? bad sampling/weighting?

[Adam Griffin]

does anyone have any theories as to WHY this particular poll, assuming it is off, is off? bad sampling/weighting?

Almost everything in the poll looks sound, but the one big throw-off factor I noticed is that it shows Democrats winning one-third of the white vote in Central/South GA. That's identical with the statewide white vote totals: will never happen. Democrats will be lucky to get 15-20% of the white vote from the southern half of the state. Once you adjust for that, you're in a more reasonable 3-4 point range.

Both Democrats are garnering the support of one third of white respondents – Jon Ossoff is getting 40% of the white vote in Cobb and Gwinnett Counties (43% support Warnock), while in the “core counties” of Clayton, DeKalb, and Fulton, both Ossoff and Warnock are getting 55% of the white vote. Even in the central and south Georgia media markets, 33% of white voters are supporting Warnock while 36% are supporting Ossoff.

[Adam Griffin]

Also the respondents were 55% female and 45% male. Is the gender gap expected to be that big?

That's pretty typical in the South as black men have terrible turnout, but black women actually have great turnout compared to white women (whereas there's not much difference in turnout between white men and white women, or among other ethnic groups more generally, so the largest gender gaps tend to be in areas with large black populations, i.e., the South). It's of course even more pronounced in Democratic primaries, where the electorate in some Southern states can be as much as 65% female.

More specifically, black population =/= black eligibility. Throughout most of the Deep South, you have 1 in 4 black men ineligible to vote due to the machinations of the criminal justice system (the number is closer to 1 in 10 for black women). There are also plenty of "prison counties" where the bulk of black population is actually inmates.

This is why the average black electorate in many predominantly-black counties is 60-62% female (and of course why the overall electorate in Georgia is often 55% female).

[Alben Barkley]

Just remember, GA polls were the most accurate of any state in the general. Or close to it at least.

[skbl17]

Just remember, GA polls were the most accurate of any state in the general. Or close to it at least.

To be fair, the averages were on point. We had plenty of crazy outliers here: Trafalgar (Trump +5), Quinnipiac (Biden +7), Monmouth (Biden +5). SurveyUSA wasn't that far off (+2 Biden vs. +0.25 actual).

Right now, the averages are:

- Ossoff +1 (538)/+3.2 (270toWin)/+0.8 (RCP)
- Warnock +2 (538)/+4 (270toWin)/+1.8 (RCP)

RCP does not include this poll but does include Trafalgar. 538 and 270toWin include both.

[Sir Mohamed]

Sure.jan

[Hope For A New Era]

What's gonna be the discourse if the results look even remotely similar to these?

Shock and awe at the extreme power of the Trump-on-the-ballot effect, I guess.