Inverted swings and trends

[bagelman]

Or in other words, inverted swings by state. In any particular election, the swing is reversed in the state without regard to the national swing.

Starting with 1932.




I was hoping to avoid any nonsense starting with this year, but noo still over 100% R OK.



FDR is more forceful with the New Deal and Landon avoids embarrassment.

1940



1944



1948 and 1952 are D landslides.

1956

[bagelman]

1960 and '64 are both R landslides. 1968 and 1972 are D landslides. 1976 is an R landslide.

1980 is a D landslide, but is at least worth mapping:

[bagelman]

1984: an infuriating election for Democrats, as they lose all 3 of the deciding states by very narrow margins: Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

[bagelman]

1984: an infuriating election for Democrats, as they lose all 3 of the deciding states by very narrow margins: Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

PV result: 50.29% R, 49.04% D. So the EV was actually biased against Reagan because of his monster margins in the farm states. I'm relieved that he won the PV while winning the EC.

1988 is of course a 50 state R landslide, with MN at 52.7% R. 1992 is also an R landslide.

Here's 1996, which is interesting:

[Iacon]

That 1996 map is very weird looking, but for some reason it's aesthetically pleasing to me

[bagelman]

2000:



2004



2008



More plausible in an R landslide with Clinton.

2012



2016



2020

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is... interesting. I think something even more fascinating would be to pick a starting point and then at every election apply the inverted swing compared to real life but without resetting it every time - in other words a full timeline that develops autonomously. I would start from 1960 since the national popular vote was so close, thus avoiding a systemic bias towards one party or the other in the timeline.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1964. Also known as Al Smith 2: Electric Boogaloo (thus me switching LBJ for a JFK that survived his assassination attempt, which makes this map a tad less absurdly unrealistic). I counted the Alabama unpledged electors from real life as a standard Democratic ticket for obvious reasons.




1968. Interesting map which resembles that of eight years prior but with a more Democratic West, reason why I picked Frank Church as the candidate who defeats President Goldwater.




1972. President Church is re-elected in a landslide against Senator George McGovern, who entered politics as a progressive Republican in this timeline (and who wasn't allowed on the ballot in Georgia - closest I can do to simulating a 100.6% Democratic margin of victory).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1976. The map keeps transforming into something never seen before. This is presumably the first time a clear majority of the white South votes Republican. Despite that, the Democrats luck out as they win the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote, the first such split since 1888. Given Louisiana's result I chose Edwin Edwards (a profile similar to Carter in some ways but different in others), going up against Howard Baker.




1980. An immensely popular Edwards has an easy time in a rematch with Baker, who runs a more unappealing campaign, maybe? Democratic dominance keeps going unabated, in a sort of second New Deal era.




1984. Vice President Bayh destroys a way too old and too conservative Ronald Reagan. Will the Plains ever vote Democratic again? A side effect of this timeline I wasn't expecting is the Dakotas voting differently most of the time.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1988. President Bayh sets a record of six consecutive Democratic victories winning again with a map we all know by now.




1992. The Republican Party puts an end to its drought, and I decided it would be cool if this happened in the same way as it did forty years prior: by nominating a general. Colin Powell defeats "Massachusetts elitist" Michael Dukakis (and businessman Ross Perot). This timeline clearly has the Solid South stuck in a loop forever...




1996. Powell reelected against Senator Sam Nunn. Since it's inverted swings, the Republican Party gains a lot of ground in the Northeast while losing some states out West.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2000. A third Republican term is inaugurated, in a victory that is larger in the Electoral College than in the PV, as Vice President Sununu beats Senator Clinton.




2004. This timeline is not very keen on flips in the presidency - this time it's Republican President Sununu to win reelection despite losing the popular vote.




2008. Suddenly a map with a quite compact geography, even if bizarre to our eyes. Of course, the Republican Party wins yet again. This exercise is much more boring than I expected.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2012. President McCain is reelected... yawn. Only one state flips (but after all it was only two in real life).




2016. Close but no cigar... modernizing conservative Mitt Romney (whose candidacy is rather controversial within the LDS Church) gets a record seven consecutive W for the Grand Old Party.




2020. Lol. Suppose Romney had to resign at some point for some spiciness.




My apologies to bagelman for occupying his thread with a spin-off that turned out to be less interesting than the original due to some weird coincidences, but at this point I may as well finish.