IL-GOV 2022 megathread (user search)
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News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  IL-GOV 2022 megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: IL-GOV 2022 megathread  (Read 21154 times)
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« on: April 15, 2021, 10:32:10 AM »

Rodney Davis making some noise about unfavorable redistricting potentially influencing a run for Governor-

https://wtax.com/news/101101-davis-a-lot-is-riding-on-remap/
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2021, 11:15:13 AM »

I doubt Pritzker will follow through on retiring (he’s already put millions in a campaign fund), but even if he does Stratton or whoever would be considerably favored.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2021, 03:26:12 PM »

Pritzker is officially running for reelection-

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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2021, 01:13:28 PM »

I’m in IL today and I see that JB already has billboards everywhere on the expressways touting Dems’ accomplishments and touting GOP’s obstruction to those policies.  On a side note, a bit anecdotal but I saw a smattering of Gary Rabine signs in McHenry County.

Also anecdotal, but I was recently traveling through Northwest Cook and saw a couple of Rabine signs along the way. Yard signs obviously don't vote, but I do think his chances in the primary are underestimated. He's the only candidate from Chicagoland (Bailey/Davis/Schrimpf aren't as well known here compared to downstate) and he has the money to sell himself to the Republican voter base in the expensive market as a political outsider who aligns with conservatives on both traditional cultural issues and animus toward Pritzker/the General Assembly.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2021, 07:31:47 PM »

What do my Illinoisites here think the future of the Willie Wilson Party is?

I doubt he will ever get more than 5% in a statewide race. Wilson is a joke outside of a subset of the Chicago-area African American population.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2022, 12:03:54 PM »

I don't think Irvin is even favored to get through the primary-



The attack ads just write themselves. I'm sure Darren Bailey or whoever will latch onto these points.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2022, 03:41:28 PM »

I don't think Irvin is even favored to get through the primary-



The attack ads just write themselves. I'm sure Darren Bailey or whoever will latch onto these points.
TBF Irvin does not have a prochoice record, it is just rumored that he is prochoice. His running mate is also decidedly to his right. That should help some.

Yes, I realized shortly after posting this that his record on abortion isn't pro-choice. The fact remains that he is still a poor fit for the GOP primary electorate in Illinois - and I still don't see him having much of a shot.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2022, 08:07:11 AM »



Democrats will probably take the lead in DuPage once they count all the VBM.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2022, 03:57:57 PM »



Democrats will probably take the lead in DuPage once they count all the VBM.

Update: As expected, Democrats have taken the lead in total votes cast in DuPage for both parties' gubernatorial primaries (as of July 1, with some VBM still left to count):

Combined Dem gubernatorial vote - 69,832 (50.41%)
Combined GOP gubernatorial vote - 68,706 (49.59%)
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2022, 08:46:28 AM »



I don't think this will make much of a difference since nobody really bases their votes on newspaper endorsements anymore (especially true for a publication that endorsed Gary Johnson in 2016 lol). However, it's still pretty notable given the Trib's conservative history and endorsing GOP gubernatorial nominees for as long as I can remember.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2022, 05:04:03 PM »

Pritzker going hard for the crucial Swiftie vote:

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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2022, 05:05:07 PM »

Somewhat off-topic, but the Worker's Rights Amendment to the Illinois Constitution will probably pass. It is below the 60% threshold for Yes votes on the question, but I'm fairly certain it has a majority of Yes votes as a percentage of all ballots cast (the estimates I've seen are in the 51-52% range). As I expected, though, it's producing some notable divergences from statewide Democratic candidates - specifically underperforming Pritzker in much of the upscale parts of the collar counties despite the amendment running ahead of Pritzker's vote share statewide. For example, one precinct in DuPage is Biden + 22, Pritzker +14 this year, yet the amendment is currently failing by over 20 points.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2022, 02:47:56 PM »

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-

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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2022, 06:36:05 PM »

Yes votes on the Worker's Rights Amendment account for 54.5% of total ballots cast so far, which means it should pass. Here is a tentative map of Yes votes as a percent of total ballots cast by county-


Was initially rather shocked by those Lake County numbers but apparently there just actually was a 20K undervote on the amendment.

Kind of amazing how much you can see the old party coalitions in this result. Huge over performance downstate in places like Vermillion or Gallatin, retaining old Dem holdouts like Knox, but way under performing in richest two collar counties.

It's still quite underperforming the gubernatorial vote share, though; the amendment is getting 55.4% of the vote compared to Pritzker's 59.4% so far (ditto DuPage where it's getting 53.1% vs. Pritzker's 55.9%). I'm not too surprised - these areas are still fairly fiscally conservative even though they have shifted to Democrats. You could see a similar pattern with 2020's Fair Tax Amendment.

Will County is seeing the biggest overperformance of all the collar counties (getting an 8% higher vote share than Pritzker!), which harkens back to the days when it was the most Democratic of the collars.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,043


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2022, 01:55:39 PM »

The final certified results are in, and Pritzker won by a resounding 12.5% margin - which aligns with the state's lean adjusted for the national environment. It is the largest margin a Democratic governor had won reelection in IL in over a century (since Augustus French in 1848 - before our current two-party system began).
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