Inauguration Day poll: Does Trump get convicted or acquitted by the Senate?

[John Dule]

For now, I'm going with tilt convict. I think McConnell knows that a lengthy Senate proceeding on this issue will only serve to keep Trump in people's minds, thus emboldening Democrats. He is also probably concerned about the rumors (albeit unsubstantiated ones) that Trump intends to launch a third party. He might try to nip this in the bud by giving the Democrats their conviction in exchange for a speedy trial process.

The most likely path I see for conviction right now would require a number of GOP senators who are on the fence to simply not show up to the vote. This would make it easier for the Democrats to reach the 2/3rds majority (out of members present), and would allow them to escape voting one way or the other on a potentially damaging issue like this. The Cruzes and Hawleys would still vote to acquit, of course.

[Ferguson97]

Lean Acquit, I don’t think the votes are there so we won’t see anything beyond the usual suspects.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Depends on how many Republicans don't vote at all.
10 voting to convict and 10 not voting would be enough.

[Del Tachi]

I doubt Trump gets convicted

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Amendment XIV Section 3 seems like a better option at this point. If it isn't already on the books, a law passed under Section 5 thereof to establish how the government determines who has engaged in insurrection or giving aid or comfort to those so engaged would only require a majority to pass. The only reason to consider the impeachment process at this point is that it would require there be at least some Republican buy-in to the idea that Trump did something seriously wrong.

[thumb21]

Given the number of Republicans who need to defect, I doubt it.