San Jose State University: Schwarzenegger (R) has a 7 point lead on Angelida

[Alcon]

I go by LV polls: Gallup, Zogby, and Associated press Ipsos. Any other that uses variety like Knight Ridder, Mason Dixon, or Quinnepiac I forget about. Just like that Univ of Cincy poll had DeWine ahead by 10 and it was registered voters.

It was a university poll.  They might as well be polling Tredrick's dog.  And what's "just like"?  You can't base an entire type of poll's effectiveness on one poor university poll.

Look, you can trust whomever you want, but Zogby did a horrendous job in 2004 with everything, Gallup was pretty much crap, and Mason-Dixon absolutely killed.  You will see the mistake you are making this fall.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that I don't trust Registered voters. Of course Mason Dixon killed their prediction of oversampling republicans panned out because their was more republican enthusiam.  So, their number of sampling republicans turned out to be correct. But this year, the energy is on the left, the republicans aren't going to turn out like they did in 2004 and we the house, the senate and the governors mansions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

we are going to get a sweep and win the open seat in TN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I disagree with you in MI, the loss of manufacturing jobs are going to kill republicans in MI and Granholm will pull through.

[ATFFL]

I go by LV polls: Gallup, Zogby, and Associated press Ipsos. Any other that uses variety like Knight Ridder, Mason Dixon, or Quinnepiac I forget about. Just like that Univ of Cincy poll had DeWine ahead by 10 and it was registered voters.

It was a university poll.  They might as well be polling Tredrick's dog.  And what's "just like"?  You can't base an entire type of poll's effectiveness on one poor university poll.

Look, you can trust whomever you want, but Zogby did a horrendous job in 2004 with everything, Gallup was pretty much crap, and Mason-Dixon absolutely killed.  You will see the mistake you are making this fall.

Lucky was accurate  in 14 out of 18 states missing 22.2%.  This makes him more accurate than Quinnipiac, Zogby, ARG, FOX/OD, Strategic Vision and CNN/USA Today/Gallup. 

I would expect Gallup to come back.  Zogby, however, appears to remain quite insane.  I firmly believe his early success in the primaries caused him to believe that his polls did not reflect reality, but created it.  He changed his Iowa and NH predictions at the last miunute, both to be accurate on all the top candidates within 1%.  He then spent the last few months talking about how Kerry would win and, at 5:30 on election day, posted his polls that had Kerry taking Virginia and Colorado and called for a 311 EV win for Kerry.

He then had the unmitigated gall to post that he was the most accurate pollster in 2004 the next day.

If there is no republican in the race, by all means trust Zogby.  Otherwise, not so much.  He has not had a good year in federal elections since 1996.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There you guys go again. Zogby before the election night predicted that on his website that the Kerry would win NH and FL and lose NM. And Larry Sabato and Fox News had the same prediction. He only changed it because he was going by the exit polls.  And by the evening time he said that it was wrong and went back to his online polls. His online polls were the accurate ones. And he said he would trust those over projections anytime. And by the way like I said before Mason Dixon was only accurate because they had a high republican turnout.  The turnout will not be that way this way and I doubt if they predict based on in the past it will turn out that way. The Dems will turnout and we will sweep everything.

[ATFFL]

There you guys go again. Zogby before the election night predicted that on his website that the Kerry would win NH and FL and lose NM. And Larry Sabato and Fox News had the same prediction. He only changed it because he was going by the exit polls.  And by the evening time he said that it was wrong and went back to his online polls. His online polls were the accurate ones. And he said he would trust those over projections anytime. And by the way like I said before Mason Dixon was only accurate because they had a high republican turnout.  The turnout will not be that way this way and I doubt if they predict based on in the past it will turn out that way. The Dems will turnout and we will sweep everything.

You are calling his online polls accurate?

You have just made it very clear that we may safely ignore you.

My source for the following is Zogby himself

State ....... Error
AR..............6%
AZ..............5%
CO.............3%
FL..............2%
IA..............7%
MI..............3%
MN.............5%
MO.............5%
NC.............9%
NH.............3%
NM.............10%
NV..............2%
OH.............3%
OR..............6%
PA..............2%
TN..............11%
VA..............9%
WA.............4%
WI.............3%
WV............9%
Avg. error: 5.45%

I have no idea how he comes up with his claim that the average error was 4%,

Only Gallup, who has spent the past 2 years admitting they blew up and are trying to fix it, did worse than Zogby Interactive.

Part of being a pollster is correctly predicting turnout (Rass and MD were very good at this in 2004).   Another part is knowing that exit polls, especially only from the morning, can be horribly inaccurate since they are  (much like is Interacticve polls) a self-selected sample.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have to respond to your post. Eventhough you claim all these errors, you don't look at the approval ratings of these governors and senators. Vilsack might be going down because he has high disapproval ratings. MN has elected a Dem governor I don't know how long. And what other poll got Schwarzenegger ahead. And don't forget Baustamante was ahead early in the recall election and he lost. Just because you are ahead don't mean you are going to win especially like in IA and MN within the margin of error.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who is to say that Zogby isn't and the other ones are. You can argue that Zogby is right and the others are wrong. All I know is that Fox news and Larry Sabato had the same number of states Bush and Kerry won in 2004 and both are liberal and conservative. As long as Zogby is respected by Dems and Republicans I will respect his polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One last thing is like I said before, since the same the republicans turned out in the same number as Mason Dixon said and that isn't normal, then republicans win. But if you go by the Gallup and Zogby they  usually don't oversample republcians and the republicans aren't going to turn out like they did in 2000, 2002, and 2004 and they will lose and Mason Dixon will be on the losing in this time.

[ATFFL]

I am beginning to think that the paid forum goers are coming back.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like I said I believe more so likely voters not registered voters. I believe Survey USA polls.

[ATFFL]

Like I said I believe more so likely voters not registered voters. I believe Survey USA polls.

My biggest complaint with S-USA is that they have a tendency to use somewhat small samples at times.  Since they are limited by the budget of the poll sponsors, you can hardly fault them for this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not necessarily. They say that they talk to 1000 people, 800 are registered to vote and 600 are likely to vote. Gallup uses the same method. That is reflective of the voting population. And that isn't a small number.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I made a mistake Knight Ridder Mason Dixon had WI close and MN going to Bush.

[Jake]

I am beginning to think that the paid forum goers are coming back.

It's certainly possible, especially considering even money can cause good sense to abandon you.