1988: Johnny Cash (D) vs. George H.W. Bush (R)

[Alben Barkley]

This is a bit of an odd scenario but hear me out.

We know that country music legend Johnny Cash was a Democrat: He endorsed Al Gore in his presidential campaigns and was very close to Jimmy Carter (who he was actually related to by marriage; Jimmy was a cousin of Johnny’s wife June Carter). His lyrics also consistently demonstrate empathy for the poor and downtrodden: Among other things, he wrote songs opposing Vietnam, calling for criminal justice reform (including opposition to the death penalty), and advocating Native American rights. But, like Jimmy Carter, he was also a Southerner and evangelical Christian.

Let’s suppose for a second that Cash enters politics in 1984, running for and winning the Tennessee senate seat that was actually won by Al Gore. He then enters the Democratic primary for president in 1988, and wins the nomination much like Carter did in 1976: Running as a dark horse outsider candidate who especially appeals to the South and the rural white working class. His politics are also somewhat similar to Carter’s: Socially moderate in many regards, but liberal on certain issues like the death penalty, though he justifies those positions as the product of his Christian faith. Economically he’s more populist.

Given all that, can  he beat Bush in 1988? Is it possible for him to sweep the South? I for one think he could.

[Kuumo]

I don't know if he would defeat Bush, but this would likely be his path to 270.

[Mr. Smith]

If there was ever a year where some kind of 2016 for Dems could happen, it was this year... so yes, I think it could've worked.

I'd guess if he won, it'd be similar to '92, 'cept with South Dakota rather than Colorado

[Fuzzy Bear]

Johnny Cash was a supporter of Nixon and Reagan who didn't care at all for Clinton.  He was certainly not a typical conservative, as he had legitimate care for the underdog. 

Cash's drug problems were of such a proportion that he'd have been found out if he ever seriously ran for office. 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I agree with Fuzzy. Cash's personal life was complicated, and he continued to struggle with drugs and alcohol until when he died. I think his last stint in rehab was like in 2000 or something, not long before he died. Cash's politics were a hodge-podge of generic populist sentiments, he'd likely run as an indie if he ran at all.

[Alben Barkley]

Johnny Cash was a supporter of Nixon and Reagan who didn't care at all for Clinton.  He was certainly not a typical conservative, as he had legitimate care for the underdog.  

Cash's drug problems were of such a proportion that he'd have been found out if he ever seriously ran for office.  

Citation needed for claims he supported Nixon and Reagan. He played at the White House for Nixon, but ignored his request to play the conservative anthem “Okie From Muskogee” (not even his song) and instead played his blistering anti-war and anti-establishment song that sympathized with the youth protest movement, “What Is Truth.” He also played the similarly progressive “Man in Black” and pro-Indian “Ballad of Ira Hayes.” (At a time when there were a lot of tensions between the Native American community and Nixon administration.) His performance seemed to be more of a bold anti-Nixon political statement than anything.

And again, he supported Carter and Gore in their presidential runs in the 80s. I cannot find any evidence whatsoever he supported Reagan, and plenty that suggests he opposed him. He sure as hell did in 1980, and he opposed the GOP in 1988 as well. Don’t think he made an endorsement in 1984.

The drug thing is more of a legitimate issue, but I can see Cash in this timeline turning it into almost a strength of sorts by claiming he was a changed and better man thanks to his faith.

[Alben Barkley]

I agree with Fuzzy. Cash's personal life was complicated, and he continued to struggle with drugs and alcohol until when he died. I think his last stint in rehab was like in 2000 or something, not long before he died. Cash's politics were a hodge-podge of generic populist sentiments, he'd likely run as an indie if he ran at all.

There is a lot of evidence that suggests Cash was a partisan Democrat. From his endorsements to his background to his friendships to his lyrics to even his family after his death (they supported Obama).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I agree with Fuzzy. Cash's personal life was complicated, and he continued to struggle with drugs and alcohol until when he died. I think his last stint in rehab was like in 2000 or something, not long before he died. Cash's politics were a hodge-podge of generic populist sentiments, he'd likely run as an indie if he ran at all.

There is a lot of evidence that suggests Cash was a partisan Democrat. From his endorsements to his background to his friendships to his lyrics to even his family after his death (they supported Obama).

Probably, to an extent. I like he liked Jimmy Carter a lot, but overall I get the feeling that he was probably apolitical.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Johnny Cash was a supporter of Nixon and Reagan who didn't care at all for Clinton.  He was certainly not a typical conservative, as he had legitimate care for the underdog.  

Cash's drug problems were of such a proportion that he'd have been found out if he ever seriously ran for office.  

Citation needed for claims he supported Nixon and Reagan. He played at the White House for Nixon, but ignored his request to play the conservative anthem “Okie From Muskogee” (not even his song) and instead played his blistering anti-war and anti-establishment song that sympathized with the youth protest movement, “What Is Truth.” He also played the similarly progressive “Man in Black” and pro-Indian “Ballad of Ira Hayes.” (At a time when there were a lot of tensions between the Native American community and Nixon administration.) His performance seemed to be more of a bold anti-Nixon political statement than anything.

And again, he supported Carter and Gore in their presidential runs in the 80s. I cannot find any evidence whatsoever he supported Reagan, and plenty that suggests he opposed him. He sure as hell did in 1980, and he opposed the GOP in 1988 as well. Don’t think he made an endorsement in 1984.

The drug thing is more of a legitimate issue, but I can see Cash in this timeline turning it into almost a strength of sorts by claiming he was a changed and better man thanks to his faith.

You might want to check out Cash's live performance of "Peace in the Valley" live from the White House. He clear as day voices his support for the President, who he credits for ending the war, and then says its patriotic to stand behind the President regardless of party. He was smart enough to not make any bold and directly political statements for anyone up until Jimmy Carter, but he clearly liked Nixon even if he didn't publicly endorse him.

I will concede that he probably didn't like Reagan all too much. But then again, nither do I.

[NewYorkExpress]

Johnny Cash getting elected President would have been about as likely as Mike Lindell getting elected Governor of Minnesota in 2022.

[Alben Barkley]

Johnny Cash was a supporter of Nixon and Reagan who didn't care at all for Clinton.  He was certainly not a typical conservative, as he had legitimate care for the underdog.  

Cash's drug problems were of such a proportion that he'd have been found out if he ever seriously ran for office.  

Citation needed for claims he supported Nixon and Reagan. He played at the White House for Nixon, but ignored his request to play the conservative anthem “Okie From Muskogee” (not even his song) and instead played his blistering anti-war and anti-establishment song that sympathized with the youth protest movement, “What Is Truth.” He also played the similarly progressive “Man in Black” and pro-Indian “Ballad of Ira Hayes.” (At a time when there were a lot of tensions between the Native American community and Nixon administration.) His performance seemed to be more of a bold anti-Nixon political statement than anything.

And again, he supported Carter and Gore in their presidential runs in the 80s. I cannot find any evidence whatsoever he supported Reagan, and plenty that suggests he opposed him. He sure as hell did in 1980, and he opposed the GOP in 1988 as well. Don’t think he made an endorsement in 1984.

The drug thing is more of a legitimate issue, but I can see Cash in this timeline turning it into almost a strength of sorts by claiming he was a changed and better man thanks to his faith.

You might want to check out Cash's live performance of "Peace in the Valley" live from the White House. He clear as day voices his support for the President, who he credits for ending the war, and then says its patriotic to stand behind the President regardless of party. He was smart enough to not make any bold and directly political statements for anyone up until Jimmy Carter, but he clearly liked Nixon even if he didn't publicly endorse him.

I will concede that he probably didn't like Reagan all too much. But then again, nither do I.

I've heard the tape. Just because he offers a few pat phrases praising the president who let him into the White House to sing does not mean he politically endorsed him or voted for him. In fact, emphasizing that it's important to support the president REGARDLESS OF PARTY would if anything seem to just be more evidence that he was a Democrat. Maybe he voted Nixon 1972 over McGovern like a hell of a lot Democrats (especially in the South) did, but that doesn't really mean anything about how he voted before or after that. Hell, even what he chose to focus his praise on -- Nixon's steps towards ending the war -- would seem to suggest where his priorities lied quite clearly, and they were plainly pretty liberal as they were before and since. It wasn't like Elvis where he went in begging for a DEA badge and praising the War on Drugs. In fact, in the lead-in to "What Is Truth," Cash openly admitted to having a drug problem... in front of Nixon... while barely hiding his contempt for Nixon's "war on drugs" or his own views on the subject and the youth of the day.

And again, all of the context and content of the very same performance besides that would seem to suggest that it was at least as much of a passive-aggressive middle finger to Nixon as it was praise of him.

Also I know this is an old thread but I remembered making it after forgetting about it for a long time so I just figured I'd try to revive it in case anyone else has any ideas about this.

[MATTROSE94]

Johnny Cash getting elected President would have been about as likely as Mike Lindell getting elected Governor of Minnesota in 2022.

Mike Lindell does have a non-zero chance at winning in 2022 considering that the midterm elections are going to be a bloodbath for the Democrats and almost result in a clean Republican sweep of most races at all levels. 

[Agonized-Statism]

Prison reform unfortunately might not be what the nation wants to hear in the days of Willie Horton dogwhistle ads. He would get in trouble with the "lock 'em up and throw away the key" law and order voters. The media would totally tear apart his image and undermine his coolness, so that's gone. Would flip New York but don't wanna upset someone.


Vice President George Bush (R-TX) / Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) ✔
Activist Johnny Cash (D-TN) / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Johnny Cash was a supporter of Nixon and Reagan who didn't care at all for Clinton.  He was certainly not a typical conservative, as he had legitimate care for the underdog.  

Cash's drug problems were of such a proportion that he'd have been found out if he ever seriously ran for office.  

Citation needed for claims he supported Nixon and Reagan. He played at the White House for Nixon, but ignored his request to play the conservative anthem “Okie From Muskogee” (not even his song) and instead played his blistering anti-war and anti-establishment song that sympathized with the youth protest movement, “What Is Truth.” He also played the similarly progressive “Man in Black” and pro-Indian “Ballad of Ira Hayes.” (At a time when there were a lot of tensions between the Native American community and Nixon administration.) His performance seemed to be more of a bold anti-Nixon political statement than anything.

And again, he supported Carter and Gore in their presidential runs in the 80s. I cannot find any evidence whatsoever he supported Reagan, and plenty that suggests he opposed him. He sure as hell did in 1980, and he opposed the GOP in 1988 as well. Don’t think he made an endorsement in 1984.

The drug thing is more of a legitimate issue, but I can see Cash in this timeline turning it into almost a strength of sorts by claiming he was a changed and better man thanks to his faith.

There was a good documentary about this on Netflix that talked about how he was seen as one of the only well known figures of that era that transcended the culture war but because he’d never made his political views known publicly until that time Nixon could plausibly believe that he was conservative or at least could be useful as a political tool. It’s kind of similar how to very early on in the Colbert Report some conservatives didn’t realize he was playing a character which could plausibly explain his invitation to host the White House press correspondents dinner.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I think an unbeatable ticket would have been Cash-Glenn. The country music singer and the astronaut would have won in a landslide.

[Alben Barkley]

Prison reform unfortunately might not be what the nation wants to hear in the days of Willie Horton dogwhistle ads. He would get in trouble with the "lock 'em up and throw away the key" law and order voters. The media would totally tear apart his image and undermine his coolness, so that's gone. Would flip New York but don't wanna upset someone.


Vice President George Bush (R-TX) / Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Activist Johnny Cash (D-TN) / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) ✔

LOL this is ridiculous. There would simply be no way to undermine Cash's tough country image entirely and paint him as Dukakis 2.0. Even if he lost, the map would not be identical; the coalitions would be entirely different. Cash would probably win Arkansas and Tennessee at least on the strength of his close personal ties and immense popularity there alone.

And I never said Cash would campaign on prison reform as his top issue that year; it's not inconceivable he would moderate or downplay his views on criminal justice and play up the law and order credentials he did have instead, and/or at least run a campaign more effective than Dukakis's at hitting back on the Bush-Atwater attacks. Plus you have the fact that you're dealing with a Southern evangelical far more akin to (and more charismatic than) Jimmy Carter than the "Massachusetts liberal" Dukakis, and that alone undercuts Atwater's attacks somewhat; Cash could always just fall back on his faith to turn the tables on Bush if need be in response to those attacks.

Also I'm getting real tired of you "subtly" pretending like you have to coddle me in every single map you make to avoid "triggering" me or whatever. The only times I have ever argued with you have been because I simply think your arguments are wrong and bad, not because I am personally offended that you would dare disagree with me. If anything, you are the one who seems to possess the authoritarian impulse to treat all disagreement with what you seem to think are your god-given truths as ludicrous hysteria. When in actuality I have agreed with you at least as often as I have disagreed with you, probably more in fact, and have never hesitated to say so. It's just that you can't seem to tolerate it when I pick at your arguments and, rather than logically respond to them with effective counter-arguments, all you can do is try to pre-emptively portray me as some kind of crazy nutjob for daring to disagree with your logically strained arguments. (Ironically, and pretty embarrassingly for you, you have done this repeatedly even at times when it turns out I almost totally agree with you.)

Never mind the fact that I always explain in precise logical detail exactly why I disagree with you when I do, and have literally NEVER thrown a hissy fit at you (or anyone for that matter) for simply flipping a state I wouldn't on your maps the way you act like I do. It's sad, really. Truth is I would have disagreed with your map with red OR blue New York, and it wouldn't have even been a special focus of mine if you didn't keep it blue to "appease" me because I think your position is wrong for way, way more reasons than that. There is in fact a legitimate argument that Cash could have lost New York AND lost worse overall than Dukakis, but you didn't make it. You were just lazy.

And frankly, it's a sign that "someone" never got over the fact that he is literally incapable of citing even a single source that supports his outlandish claim that Al Gore would have been a proponent of the Iraq War and everything would have gone down basically the same as if Bush won in 2000 no matter what; that seems to me to be the fundamental source of your disdain for me, and it's childish and pathetic. Get the hell over it already and either engage with me as a mature adult capable of reason or don't bother engaging with me at all.

Look man, I'm sorry if you voted for Nader in 2000, but no amount of ad hominem arguments and desperate copium inhaled in a vain attempt to pretend that was a good idea will ever change the fact that it wasn't. It is what it is.