Will China invade Taiwan?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Curious as to what yall think.  I say Yes/2006, maybe 7 if they have to deal with NK 1st.

[J. J.]

It's going to be a while, if at all. 

[Lunar]

China doesn't want to invade Taiwan.  They reason why they want Taiwan is for its industry base.  China's goal, I believe, is to adopt a policy similar to the one they have with Hong Kong: local autonomy and political freedom in exchange for Chinese dominance.  China wants to use its position as a growing superpower to pressure Taiwan (through the rest of the world, direct pressure, whatever) Taiwan until it becomes more advantageous for Taiwan to accept the crooked deal than to turn them down.

Taiwan would not be easy to take, they have an extremely defensive military (can you say, anti-aircraft missiles?) and they have strong political alliance with many countries China does not want to piss off, hah.

[Jake]

Uh, No, and at least not for 20 years or more. China's economy right now is not, repeat not, built for war. They are dependant on foreign investment, money that would be completely cut off by invading Taiwan. Not to mention what harm it would do to the overall world economy.

[MODU]

No, I don't think they are that stupid.

[MasterJedi]

It's going to be a while, if at all. 

^^^^^^

[Democratic Hawk]

No, never!

Dave

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Taiwan would not be easy to take, they have an extremely defensive military (can you say, anti-aircraft missiles?) and they have strong political alliance with many countries China does not want to piss off, hah.

Us and Russia to name 2 big ones.

[DanielX]

Not anytime soon, if Hu Jintao has a brain. Any Chinese action on Taiwan will see trade sanctions by the US, Japan, and maybe others that would cripple its economy, too dependent on selling consumer goods on the American and Japanese markets. Not to mention that military action by the US is quite likely, which could mean anything from a 'Super Falklands War' to World War III. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not at the moment. However, if the export-driven Chinese economy were to go into meltdown for some reason, then it might be one way for the regime to stay in power. Nowt like appealing to base nationalism.

[Colin]

Uh, No, and at least not for 20 years or more. China's economy right now is not, repeat not, built for war. They are dependant on foreign investment, money that would be completely cut off by invading Taiwan. Not to mention what harm it would do to the overall world economy.

Yes exactly. Who is currently supplying the impetous for all of their economic development? The United States and the EU both of which would, at the least, call on sanctions of China and Chinese goods or actually prepare a full scale war against China.

If a war between the US and China became a reality it would almost certainly end in a US victory. Chinese naval assets are mostly old Soviet equipment which wouldn't stand a chance against American naval forces rendering an amphibious invasion of Taiwan complete suicide if US forces are in the area.

On the ground it would be much different. While we have the more advanced technology they have a distinct advantage in numbers at the beginning of the war, outnumbering the entire US Army by over 2:1 not including National Guard and Civil Defence elements. It would be a hard fought war probably on the scale of WWII in size and scope although help from other Asian nations plus EU countries would help the American side if Russia stays neutral in any conflict.

In a nuclear engagement any Chinese officials would know that he is screwed, utterly and completely. The Chinese have about 35 missles capable of reaching targets in the continental US as compared to the over 1500 such devices in the American arsenal. Which basically means that any Chinese leader would have to succomb to the fact that if he launches his weapons his entire country would be reduced to radioactive slag, a very strong deterent against the starting of a nuclear war.

Russian involvement would be key. While I see them as mostly staying neutral in the conflict it is likely that they would actually join the American side due to a mutual distrust between China and Russia. India would also be a major factor. Again there are unresolved conflicts between those two powers that may force the Indians into the American camp, as well as the spectre of a militarily dominant Asian superpower in China dominating the subcontinent.

Lastly why in the name of hell do you think China will attack Taiwan in 2006? They have no reason to and unless Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao have been smoking crack cocaine for the last year and a half would not commit themselves to what basically accounts for national suicide.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Uh, No, and at least not for 20 years or more. China's economy right now is not, repeat not, built for war. They are dependant on foreign investment, money that would be completely cut off by invading Taiwan. Not to mention what harm it would do to the overall world economy.

Yes exactly. Who is currently supplying the impetous for all of their economic development? The United States and the EU both of which would, at the least, call on sanctions of China and Chinese goods or actually prepare a full scale war against China.

If a war between the US and China became a reality it would almost certainly end in a US victory. Chinese naval assets are mostly old Soviet equipment which wouldn't stand a chance against American naval forces rendering an amphibious invasion of Taiwan complete suicide if US forces are in the area.

On the ground it would be much different. While we have the more advanced technology they have a distinct advantage in numbers at the beginning of the war, outnumbering the entire US Army by over 2:1 not including National Guard and Civil Defence elements. It would be a hard fought war probably on the scale of WWII in size and scope although help from other Asian nations plus EU countries would help the American side if Russia stays neutral in any conflict.

In a nuclear engagement any Chinese officials would know that he is screwed, utterly and completely. The Chinese have about 35 missles capable of reaching targets in the continental US as compared to the over 1500 such devices in the American arsenal. Which basically means that any Chinese leader would have to succomb to the fact that if he launches his weapons his entire country would be reduced to radioactive slag, a very strong deterent against the starting of a nuclear war.

Russian involvement would be key. While I see them as mostly staying neutral in the conflict it is likely that they would actually join the American side due to a mutual distrust between China and Russia. India would also be a major factor. Again there are unresolved conflicts between those two powers that may force the Indians into the American camp, as well as the spectre of a militarily dominant Asian superpower in China dominating the subcontinent.

Lastly why in the name of hell do you think China will attack Taiwan in 2006? They have no reason to and unless Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao have been smoking crack cocaine for the last year and a half would not commit themselves to what basically accounts for national suicide.

They said they were going to invade Taiwan in the near future to regain what they had lost, and 2006 was the predicted year by most people.

[2952-0-0]

No, definitely not. It doesn't make any political or economic sense, and I don't know what will provoke Beijing to move against the island. Last year their rubber-stamp parliament passed the Anti-Separation Act, which stipulated that they are not to take any military action against Taiwan unless the Republic of China actually renames itself as Taiwan.

In 2004 president Chen was reelected in a razor-thin election (thanks to an election-eve "shooting"), and proposed a timetable that would declare Taiwan an independent state by 2008. Of course Beijing was furious at this, and vowed to pressure him accordingly (they already have a history of doing something whenever Taiwan votes; just before the 1996 election China fired a missile into the Taiwan Strait).

For the past two years things have been looking miserable for Chen. His party has lost election after election, and his coalition has been hit be scandal after scandal. Chen is now highly unpopular (his approval rate is almost literally in the single digits) and his talk of separation has accordingly been forgotten. Just last week he narrowly escaped being censured by the legislature, and even then no one dared to vote against the motion. Needless to say, his dreams of independence are deader than a dodo. Hence, the chance of war in Taiwan are near zero.

[Michael Z]

Curious as to what yall think.  I say Yes/2006, maybe 7 if they have to deal with NK 1st.

You really can't wait for an all-out war in the Far East, can you?

[Colin]

Uh, No, and at least not for 20 years or more. China's economy right now is not, repeat not, built for war. They are dependant on foreign investment, money that would be completely cut off by invading Taiwan. Not to mention what harm it would do to the overall world economy.

Yes exactly. Who is currently supplying the impetous for all of their economic development? The United States and the EU both of which would, at the least, call on sanctions of China and Chinese goods or actually prepare a full scale war against China.

If a war between the US and China became a reality it would almost certainly end in a US victory. Chinese naval assets are mostly old Soviet equipment which wouldn't stand a chance against American naval forces rendering an amphibious invasion of Taiwan complete suicide if US forces are in the area.

On the ground it would be much different. While we have the more advanced technology they have a distinct advantage in numbers at the beginning of the war, outnumbering the entire US Army by over 2:1 not including National Guard and Civil Defence elements. It would be a hard fought war probably on the scale of WWII in size and scope although help from other Asian nations plus EU countries would help the American side if Russia stays neutral in any conflict.

In a nuclear engagement any Chinese officials would know that he is screwed, utterly and completely. The Chinese have about 35 missles capable of reaching targets in the continental US as compared to the over 1500 such devices in the American arsenal. Which basically means that any Chinese leader would have to succomb to the fact that if he launches his weapons his entire country would be reduced to radioactive slag, a very strong deterent against the starting of a nuclear war.

Russian involvement would be key. While I see them as mostly staying neutral in the conflict it is likely that they would actually join the American side due to a mutual distrust between China and Russia. India would also be a major factor. Again there are unresolved conflicts between those two powers that may force the Indians into the American camp, as well as the spectre of a militarily dominant Asian superpower in China dominating the subcontinent.

Lastly why in the name of hell do you think China will attack Taiwan in 2006? They have no reason to and unless Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao have been smoking crack cocaine for the last year and a half would not commit themselves to what basically accounts for national suicide.

They said they were going to invade Taiwan in the near future to regain what they had lost, and 2006 was the predicted year by most people.

You must not be that old Inks. They've been saying things like that since 1949. You need to take the Chinese governments statements with about a boatload full of salt. You wouldn't trust them if they said, "we have no political prisoners! They're in jail for serious crimes but we still treat them as well as any other country. No human rights abuses here." Why trust them if they said they would attack and reclaim Taiwan in a year.

[Flying Dog]

China would not invade Taiwan for fear of provoking a U.S. embargo on all their goods. Ofcourse, that would hurt us as well.

[J. J.]

In looking at the Hong Kong/Macao models, it seems prudent for the PRC just to wait.

[NewFederalist]

In looking at the Hong Kong/Macao models, it seems prudent for the PRC just to wait.

I would like to associate myself with those remarks.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Curious as to what yall think.  I say Yes/2006, maybe 7 if they have to deal with NK 1st.

You really can't wait for an all-out war in the Far East, can you?

I just want to see those countries corrected; if that means war, then absolutely.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Uh, No, and at least not for 20 years or more. China's economy right now is not, repeat not, built for war. They are dependant on foreign investment, money that would be completely cut off by invading Taiwan. Not to mention what harm it would do to the overall world economy.

Yes exactly. Who is currently supplying the impetous for all of their economic development? The United States and the EU both of which would, at the least, call on sanctions of China and Chinese goods or actually prepare a full scale war against China.

If a war between the US and China became a reality it would almost certainly end in a US victory. Chinese naval assets are mostly old Soviet equipment which wouldn't stand a chance against American naval forces rendering an amphibious invasion of Taiwan complete suicide if US forces are in the area.

On the ground it would be much different. While we have the more advanced technology they have a distinct advantage in numbers at the beginning of the war, outnumbering the entire US Army by over 2:1 not including National Guard and Civil Defence elements. It would be a hard fought war probably on the scale of WWII in size and scope although help from other Asian nations plus EU countries would help the American side if Russia stays neutral in any conflict.

In a nuclear engagement any Chinese officials would know that he is screwed, utterly and completely. The Chinese have about 35 missles capable of reaching targets in the continental US as compared to the over 1500 such devices in the American arsenal. Which basically means that any Chinese leader would have to succomb to the fact that if he launches his weapons his entire country would be reduced to radioactive slag, a very strong deterent against the starting of a nuclear war.

Russian involvement would be key. While I see them as mostly staying neutral in the conflict it is likely that they would actually join the American side due to a mutual distrust between China and Russia. India would also be a major factor. Again there are unresolved conflicts between those two powers that may force the Indians into the American camp, as well as the spectre of a militarily dominant Asian superpower in China dominating the subcontinent.

Lastly why in the name of hell do you think China will attack Taiwan in 2006? They have no reason to and unless Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao have been smoking crack cocaine for the last year and a half would not commit themselves to what basically accounts for national suicide.

They said they were going to invade Taiwan in the near future to regain what they had lost, and 2006 was the predicted year by most people.

You must not be that old Inks. They've been saying things like that since 1949. You need to take the Chinese governments statements with about a boatload full of salt. You wouldn't trust them if they said, "we have no political prisoners! They're in jail for serious crimes but we still treat them as well as any other country. No human rights abuses here." Why trust them if they said they would attack and reclaim Taiwan in a year.

They never said when--that was just the general prediction.

[Michael Z]

Curious as to what yall think.  I say Yes/2006, maybe 7 if they have to deal with NK 1st.

You really can't wait for an all-out war in the Far East, can you?

I just want to see those countries corrected; if that means war, then absolutely.

The question is "if". War would cause more problems than it would solve.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Curious as to what yall think.  I say Yes/2006, maybe 7 if they have to deal with NK 1st.

You really can't wait for an all-out war in the Far East, can you?

I just want to see those countries corrected; if that means war, then absolutely.

The question is "if". War would cause more problems than it would solve.

No, war would eliminate it.

[Michael Z]

Curious as to what yall think.  I say Yes/2006, maybe 7 if they have to deal with NK 1st.

You really can't wait for an all-out war in the Far East, can you?

I just want to see those countries corrected; if that means war, then absolutely.

The question is "if". War would cause more problems than it would solve.

No, war would eliminate it.

How?

[Lunar]

Curious as to what yall think.  I say Yes/2006, maybe 7 if they have to deal with NK 1st.

You really can't wait for an all-out war in the Far East, can you?

I just want to see those countries corrected; if that means war, then absolutely.

The question is "if". War would cause more problems than it would solve.

No, war would eliminate it.

War is a magical pill that has no adverse side effects?  Oh golly, I hope someone declares war on *me.*

But seriously, war causes the death of innocents and much suffering.   Invading to eliminate suffering isn't always to the best solution.

[Rob]

No, war would eliminate it.

How?

I assume he's using the war in Iraq as a point of reference; as we all know, freedom and democracy have blossomed across the Middle East since 2003. Why wouldn't that work in China?