SUSA - GA Senate: Ossoff +5, Warnock +7

[Matty]

I've a hard time believing that the Electorate in GA will be more D-friendly then it was for Biden November 3rd!

Rs Underperformed in 2018/2019 races when Trump hasn't been on ballot and Trump has blundered in ordering enough vaccines, his Admiral said so why he has beautified the military

In 2018, turnout WAS high on gop side, just not has high as what dems got

[Person Man]

I can believe this as much as I do Trafalgars last poll. This election might be a harbinger of what to expect with no Trump though I doubt this one election will tell us if we need to play defense in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania or whether it’s now the time to get aggressive with Georgia and North Carolina. Everything would be easier if Democrats actually had smart people in Florida.

[AGA]

Nonsense. If Ossoff and Warnock win, it will be by no more than 2 points.

[emailking]

Anyone who believes this is a total fool, sorry

The race is absolutely a tossup, not lean R, but this poll is a joke

But this is within the MOE of a tossup, at least the Ossoff number. So why do you say it's a joke?

I also don't know how you're so sure it's a tossup, unless you just mean the average of polls show the races about even (polls can be systematically off).

[2016]

Anyone who believes this is a total fool, sorry

The race is absolutely a tossup, not lean R, but this poll is a joke

But this is within the MOE of a tossup, at least the Ossoff number. So why do you say it's a joke?

I also don't know how you're so sure it's a tossup, unless you just mean the average of polls show the races about even (polls can be systematically off).

No other Poll has Ossoff up 5 and Warnock up 7 in GA except SurveyUSA and they have become trash.

[wbrocks67]

I wish some of these polls would ask about favorability. None of the recent ones have and I feel like that would give us a window into things as well, especially if Warnock's favorability advantage has held up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyone who believes this is a total fool, sorry

The race is absolutely a tossup, not lean R, but this poll is a joke

But this is within the MOE of a tossup, at least the Ossoff number. So why do you say it's a joke?

I also don't know how you're so sure it's a tossup, unless you just mean the average of polls show the races about even (polls can be systematically off).

No other Poll has Ossoff up 5 and Warnock up 7 in GA except SurveyUSA and they have become trash.

2 weeks until the Election and we will see whom is right, but Ossoff and Warnock aren't trailing and that is good news in a Runoff, where Rs should have the advantage

[Adam Griffin]

Jon Ossoff (D) +5
Raphael Warnock (D) +7

[Brittain33]

Jon Ossoff (D) +5
Raphael Warnock (D) +7

I have been waiting for someone to post this runway look to Atlas.

[emailking]

Anyone who believes this is a total fool, sorry

The race is absolutely a tossup, not lean R, but this poll is a joke

But this is within the MOE of a tossup, at least the Ossoff number. So why do you say it's a joke?

I also don't know how you're so sure it's a tossup, unless you just mean the average of polls show the races about even (polls can be systematically off).

No other Poll has Ossoff up 5 and Warnock up 7 in GA except SurveyUSA and they have become trash.

So what? You think this is the first time I've looked at polls before? Variances like this are not uncommon even from the best pollsters. It doesn't mean the polls are a joke because they're a few points higher than the average and no other pollster has had those numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nonsense. If Ossoff and Warnock win, it will be by no more than 2 points.

D's being naysayers is bad, we should look at the bright.side of the polls, especially Snowlabrador whom is the most pessimistic on this forum

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The sample is Biden+4 and Ossoff+6 (among those voted in November), just saying...

People tend to wrongly remember themselves as voting for the winner. it's a weird by very observable effect.

Trump supporters remember themselves as voting for Biden?

Probably nonsense and in any case I don't care about polls in this race

Both parties should follow this approach, honestly (regardless of what result they’re showing).

Clinton voters remembered themselves as voting for Trump. It's a very observerable effect.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is this the likely voter filter being weird again?

[Adam Griffin]

Jon Ossoff (D) +5
Raphael Warnock (D) +7

I have been waiting for someone to post this runway look to Atlas.

[bilaps]

I've a hard time believing that the Electorate in GA will be more D-friendly then it was for Biden November 3rd!

There's arguments you could make for either way tbh

Yes, it’s just as likely that the incredible Trump surge that was missed by the polls doesn’t show up in as large numbers without Trump on the ballot. We don’t really know.

Problem with this argument is that Trump was driving force for democrats as well, they voted also because of Trump, not for Biden

[Brittain33]

I've a hard time believing that the Electorate in GA will be more D-friendly then it was for Biden November 3rd!

There's arguments you could make for either way tbh

Yes, it’s just as likely that the incredible Trump surge that was missed by the polls doesn’t show up in as large numbers without Trump on the ballot. We don’t really know.

Problem with this argument is that Trump was driving force for democrats as well, they voted also because of Trump, not for Biden

Yes, that's likely a factor, too. We just don't know what's going to happen.

[forsythvoter]

I've a hard time believing that the Electorate in GA will be more D-friendly then it was for Biden November 3rd!

There's arguments you could make for either way tbh

Yes, it’s just as likely that the incredible Trump surge that was missed by the polls doesn’t show up in as large numbers without Trump on the ballot. We don’t really know.

Problem with this argument is that Trump was driving force for democrats as well, they voted also because of Trump, not for Biden

Yes, that's likely a factor, too. We just don't know what's going to happen.

If Ossoff / Warnock lose, it won't be because they didn't get the base to turnout. Looking at the turnout data so far, Dem turnout has been extremely strong, especially in urban Atlanta and the rural black belt. Turnout is weakest in rural North Ga, where Trump was strongest.

[Frenchrepublican]

I've a hard time believing that the Electorate in GA will be more D-friendly then it was for Biden November 3rd!

There's arguments you could make for either way tbh

Yes, it’s just as likely that the incredible Trump surge that was missed by the polls doesn’t show up in as large numbers without Trump on the ballot. We don’t really know.

Problem with this argument is that Trump was driving force for democrats as well, they voted also because of Trump, not for Biden

Yeah, many people tend to forget that Trump driven turnout is working both ways, a lot of people who voted for Biden didn't vote for him because they support his positions or love him, but simply because they wanted to oust Trump from the White House

It's why I find very silly some of these talks about 2022 being a good year for democrats because ''Trump voters will stay home without him on the ballot''.

[Frenchrepublican]

The sample is Biden+4 and Ossoff+6 (among those voted in November), just saying...

People tend to wrongly remember themselves as voting for the winner. it's a weird by very observable effect.

And ? Ossoff was not the winner, I can understand your point concerning Biden but why would some Perdue voters tell a pollster that they backed Ossoff in November ?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just remember the turnout in Atlanta was the last to come in and Trump was leading in GA, just because the Rs will be leading, once Atlanta gets the vote in, D's will win both races, it's the lag of Atlanta votes that will put D's over the top
 

We as the D's are getting close to Statehood and PR and DCc
 and Majority Leader Schumer will deal with Manchin on Statehood and Fillibuster

[Brittain33]

Yeah, many people tend to forget that Trump driven turnout is working both ways, a lot of people who voted for Biden didn't vote for him because they support his positions or love him, but simply because they wanted to oust Trump from the White House

Literally no one has forgotten that. You may safely assume that even if someone doesn't say it in every post, they are aware that opposition to Trump was the main driver behind Biden's win.

[MillennialModerate]

Give up following politics if you think this is even within a country mile of being correct

[WD]

Give up following politics if you think this is even within a country mile of being correct

People should give up listening to your takes on Georgia elections.

[brucejoel99]

Give up following politics if you think this is even within a country mile of being correct

Only if you promise to do the same

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Give up following politics if you think this is even within a country mile of being correct

GA is filled with Moderate WC voters and  AA voters, the WC isn't Dixiecrat anymore, you see what happened to MS and it's flag, they changed it.

WC voters in Deep South aren't aligned with Southern Strategy after.BLM movement and many Northern WC voters are moving to Atlanta.

The only reason why FL isn't D, which will be in 2024/ due to 🎯 Rick Scott, due to Cuban Embargo.

Ossoff and Warnock have life in them until all the votes are counted in Atlanta and Biden won on a recount and very well will happen during Runoffs