Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

Probably around March 23

[Hnv1]

You heard it here first - in late August December some mediocre centrist right-wing party surges in the polls and everyone gets all kinds of hopeful that Bibi is finally on the way out. Come election day, Likud wins outright and the right wins 70 90 seats.

May as well hold the bloody thing tomorrow.

Doubt it. It might have been true for Bennett, but Sa’ar is a big prick but he’s not going to seat under Bibi.

[Hnv1]

Its going to be a(nother) right wing win tho, innit?

Another? The right bloc didn’t win outright since 2015. But yes if Bibi will be replaced it will probably be by Sa’ar from his right (but with a moderate coalition)

[Hnv1]

Its going to be a(nother) right wing win tho, innit?

Another? The right bloc didn’t win outright since 2015. But yes if Bibi will be replaced it will probably be by Sa’ar from his right (but with a moderate coalition)

What's the odds and/or procedure for Bibi being replaced? I imagine he's of a mind to stick around if he can.

Clarify the question?
The basic procedure is as usual, if you have over 61 recommendations or simply the most the president gives you the mandate to form a government, you then have 45 days to reach an agreement with different parties and then need to win a simply confidence vote.
Currently it looks as if a Sa’ar Yamina YB YA B&W coalition might have a majority or at least the ability to swear in a government.

[Hnv1]

How did it come to this.  Given B&W will get wiped out in another election would they not do everything possible to compromise and avoid an election ?

Well they had little left to compromise on. The rotation was clearly not going to happen and Gantz had no ability to force any compromise on his MKs. He knows he’s done so at least he chose not to prolong his political death and being ridiculed daily. B&W was created to get Bibi out and defend the judicial system, any compromise on that would have been unacceptable.
His MKs will find new homes. Ashkenazi will be grumpy, Nissenkorn will probably end up elsewhere. Hell I’m not even sure B&W will take part next time.

[Hnv1]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

Not sure. I’ll doubt they’ll run alone considering how unpopular Peretz is. Shmuli might jump ship. They might run win Meretz (with a shotgun wedding) or with B&W if they run at all. Or they will run with the new Holdai party.

They are going to have primaries to kick Michaeli out.

As to the JL...unknown, Ra’am collaborated with Likud yesterday. They might run in 2 different lists.

This is the closest Israel has to snap elections as the Knesset usually dissolves with a law giving 4-5 months of campaigning. We have 90 days now. Lists need to be submitted in 45 days. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen real fast from now on

[Hnv1]

Leaving aside  war crimes in Gaza, Benny Gantz will go down in history as an useful idiot. Sad

Worse, his name will now mean being fooled like an idiot. Though we can look on the bright side, the centre-left will be suspicious of ex generals (3 stars) from now on. 3 of them are in the Knesset atm, 2.5 of them are complete morons.

[Hnv1]

So that is how Israeli Labour goes away. Not with a bang but like this. RIP FF

FF? They dug their own graves. Picked terrible leaders since the 60’s and pissed against the wind. Shas and the settlers would have been nothing without them.

Goodbye and good riddance

[Hnv1]

Leaving aside  war crimes in Gaza, Benny Gantz will go down in history as an useful idiot. Sad

Worse, his name will now mean being fooled like an idiot. Though we can look on the bright side, the centre-left will be suspicious of ex generals (3 stars) from now on. 3 of them are in the Knesset atm, 2.5 of them are complete morons.

It"s positive that people can learn lessons from past mistakes. The problem is that... well... the centre-left in Israel strikes to me as The Incredible Shrinking Man, let alone Labor. If I wanted to look on the bright side, I'd say something like "the present is dire but the future is an open book". Gantz would be on the centre-right in a normal country anyway

Regarding 3 Star generals, you had better men in the past

The centre left has actually grown a bit in 2019-20. The Zionist left is indeed dying, but that’s not necessarily bad, new alternative will come about only will let the ghosts of Mapai stop haunting us.

Gantz is actually very old school Labour, the real semi hawkish not sophisticated labour. Shelly and Michaeli were the LINOs

As to former CoGS, part for Rabin all that ventured into politics were a massive failure. And so many failures in a short time span is too much for the centre left, that’s why Eisenkot isn’t that hot in the market now.

[Hnv1]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

Not sure. I’ll doubt they’ll run alone considering how unpopular Peretz is. Shmuli might jump ship. They might run win Meretz (with a shotgun wedding) or with B&W if they run at all. Or they will run with the new Holdai party.

Is there really going to be a Huldai party? I feel like there's been speculation about this for the last two decades and it's never happened. Why would Huldai run now that he's 76 and probably wouldn't be a prime ministerial contender, which he could have been in the past?

Well firstly because he said he’ll run a few days ago. So I guess that’s happening.
Secondly he rightly senses that there is a sentiment right now of people looking for good managers regardless of left and right post Covid. Honestly he’s the best managerial type the left has to offer.

Even if he doesn’t propel himself to the top he’ll get a ministerial position. And after 22 years as mayor it might look an interesting change for him

[Hnv1]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

Not sure. I’ll doubt they’ll run alone considering how unpopular Peretz is. Shmuli might jump ship. They might run win Meretz (with a shotgun wedding) or with B&W if they run at all. Or they will run with the new Holdai party.

Is there really going to be a Huldai party? I feel like there's been speculation about this for the last two decades and it's never happened. Why would Huldai run now that he's 76 and probably wouldn't be a prime ministerial contender, which he could have been in the past?

Well firstly because he said he’ll run a few days ago. So I guess that’s happening.
Secondly he rightly senses that there is a sentiment right now of people looking for good managers regardless of left and right post Covid. Honestly he’s the best managerial type the left has to offer.

Even if he doesn’t propel himself to the top he’ll get a ministerial position. And after 22 years as mayor it might look an interesting change for him

What's the point in starting a new political party? Judging by where he'd be on the political spectrum a 'Huldai party' would just be Havoda in drag.

No need to work through the channels of an existing party and more bargaining power in a later merger (what will probably happen)

It’s more than likely that labour will “join” giving him a Skelton party to work with.

[Hnv1]

As this the closest to a snap election I thought I'll do daily updates to keep track:

- Sharon Haskel is resigning from Likud today moving to Sa'ar meaning Ayoub Karah the legend is going back to the knesset!! priceless. Haskel is very big with the incels and right-libertarians, they have between 30-60k votes.

- Bennett is going to give a speech tonight proclaiming he's running for PM. vacuous statements legally but it might clarify his position on a future Bibi coalition.

- Knesset officially dissolved hence we are back at the interim government now only Bibi can't sack B&W ministers. This is going to be odd.

- early morning poll from panel4all (decent pollster):
Likud 28
New Hope 18
YA 15
Yamina - 14
JL - 11
UTJ - 8
Shas - 8
YB - 7
Meretz - 6
B&W - 5 (lol to the power of rofl)


- Likud are reembracing the Trump techniques and oppose any reform in voting procedures due to Covid.

[Hnv1]

Anyway, yeah, I'm back after a breif hiatus. I also recommend this thread stops viewing it as a left-right vote, cause Labor is DOA, and more as a Secular vs Religious & their Enablers, cause that was for several years now - and likely will be - how blocks and coalitions are structured.

I agree with you as the main cleavage is not left vs right, amomg other things because the left in Israel is increasingly irrelevant. However, my impression as a non-expert outsider is that the main cleavage is not on the religious question, even though it's an important element. I'd say there's a national-religious-settler bloc opposed to the weakened proponents of a secular state. I think the ultranationalist element (the evolution of the so-called "revisionist zionism") is more important than the religious one. Liberal zionism is in a steep decline, on the other hand

Left-Right as Doves-Hawks is indeed dead as disco. I would say the Conservative-Liberal axis is better but not that fine tuned (a lot of Likud voters are secular-traditionalists who don't care much for religious norms).
The better definition is a blast from the past (oh the 80's) Jews-Israelis, and to some extent Sephardi-Ashkenazi now that YB is in the Israeli camp. Shas is basically a sister party of Likud at this stage and UTJ are the exception. both blocs have some that don't follow the distinction well, but this is it.

[Hnv1]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

[Hnv1]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

There's no alternative to Bibi's bloc without the coooeration of the Joint List, so Netanyahu will stay forever if he wants to.  According to the Wikipedia "New Hope" is "conservative" and "national liberal", something like the German People's Party in the Weimar era.

I think Sa'ar broke that equation as he's taking votes from the Bibi bloc (Yamina as well to a smaller extent). as it stands he might be able to form a government with Meretz abstaining (it remains to be seen what Smotric and Shaked will do after Bennett inevitably crashes to tops 12 seats.

That's why Bibi was bricking it and tried to delay the election he wanted, Sa'ar is the biggest threat on him for a long while. He already proved that he can outmaneuver Bibi in politics when needed, not religious so can't be smeared like Bennett, and very strong with the Likud politicos.

[Hnv1]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

Meretz won’t back Sa’ar.

They won’t vote against his government in a confidence vote.

That is if Meretz even runs alone which is unlikely

[Hnv1]

Peretz announces he won’t seek re-election as Labour’s leader in the imminent convention primaries. I assume Michaeli and Shmuli will run against each other, maybe some Omer Bar Lev type, or Huldai to save the logistical hassle as he’s already a Labour member. Nissenkorn was also a Labour member once...

Peretz will seek the presidency in April I suppose and if that fails he’ll leave politics.

[Hnv1]

Now this I didn’t see! Zeev Elkin is leaving Likud for Sa’ar! That’s a massive blow to Bibi (not electorally). Elkin and Levine were Bibi contractors and very important ground work in the Knesset and in coalition talks. Bibi just lost one of the only political competent allies he had

[Hnv1]

Shelah is leaving YA and starting a new party with the independents (i.e., the self employed). Not sure what his end game here is honestly. Bargaining power with Huldai?
Shelah is very intelligent, but sometimes over intelligent and over does it in politics.

[Hnv1]

What's the stance of Gideon Sa'ar and his new secular conservative party with regards the annexation of (large swathes of) the West Bank? It's clear that Bibi prefers buying time and status quo, as the deal with the UAE demonstrates and regardless his campaign promises. But the far-right settlers must be very displeased and their seats could be neccessary to forge a new majority...

Pro annexation, not unlike Bennet or the Likud.

I think Bibi genuinely wanted to annex something but Gantz and Ashkenazi did swift moves in DC to prevent it. he won't do so with a dem president the white house

[Hnv1]

Well Uvda (the top Israeli TV investigative journalism programme) did a very very unflattering piece of Gantz today. From his misconduct with Iran hacking his phone to implicit allegations to sexual scandals.

He’s finished. B&W will not run under him.

[Hnv1]

Didn't Likud attack him about the Iran hack in the previous election campaign?

Yes. Apparently he was the idiot and he leaked it himself by mistake

[Hnv1]

What's the stance of Gideon Sa'ar and his new secular conservative party with regards the annexation of (large swathes of) the West Bank? It's clear that Bibi prefers buying time and status quo, as the deal with the UAE demonstrates and regardless his campaign promises. But the far-right settlers must be very displeased and their seats could be neccessary to forge a new majority...

Pro annexation, not unlike Bennet or the Likud.

I think Bibi genuinely wanted to annex something but Gantz and Ashkenazi did swift moves in DC to prevent it. he won't do so with a dem president the white house

I'm sure that Bibi and Gantz wanted to anex something. It's a question of timing and opportunity. I doubt Gantz has any strategic visión, but Netanyahu is diffferent

Anyway this article in Times of Israel explains things a bit. It's all again focused on the figure of Netanyahu, plus the emergence of two ambitious challengers on the right and  the far right, Sa'ar and Bennet. This election will certificate the defunction of the centre-left Labor party and the vanishment of Blue & White (claiming Gantz, Lapid or Peretz are "centre-left" politicians is a joke but whatever). Israel drifts further and further to the right and elections are no longer about ideology or different projects but a matter of personal ambitions. Whoever wins the course f destruction continúes. Sad

https://www.timesofisrael.com/whoever-wins-well-be-a-fundamentally-changed-israel-when-this-election-is-over/

It was basically Ashkenazi who Stopped the annexation...I think he will be on the move, paradoxically maybe even to the right.

The collapse of the left and the left-right distinction as an ideological spheres competing for dominance is the essence of Bibism. I’m too tired to start writing on text walls on political and sociological changes since Bibi first appeared in 88. And too old as most posters here can hardly remember the pre Bibi era. So I’ll just leave it be.

I’m not registered to any party for almost two years now and quite happy about. As to the “left” they got what they deserved

[Hnv1]

It was basically Ashkenazi who Stopped the annexation...I think he will be on the move, paradoxically maybe even to the right.

The collapse of the left and the left-right distinction as an ideological spheres competing for dominance is the essence of Bibism. I’m too tired to start writing on text walls on political and sociological changes since Bibi first appeared in 88. And too old as most posters here can hardly remember the pre Bibi era. So I’ll just leave it be.

I’m not registered to any party for almost two years now and quite happy about. As to the “left” they got what they deserved

It seems that Israel is reaching the final stages of that process of political and sociological changes you are referring to. Apparently there exists the possibility to see Netanyahu ousted ftom power by his adversaries, but this is becoming increasingly irrelevant. The most important feature to watch, in my opinion, is that we are witnessing the definitive and irrevocable end of the idea of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. Regardless what the future will be, that mythological Israel (the "beacon of democracy") no longer exists. That idea is dead an buried and will never come back. I'm sorry for the forum members fond of romantic ideas about Israel, but this is it

I think Bibi will be gone by June. But Bibism is here to stay. And that’s the pickle, because the Bibists gen 2 would be less savvy and clever than the original, but far more ignorant and violent. Like Amir Ohana or his wretched son

[Hnv1]

I think Bibi will be gone by June. But Bibism is here to stay. And that’s the pickle, because the Bibists gen 2 would be less savvy and clever than the original, but far more ignorant and violent. Like Amir Ohana or his wretched son

You are giving me a new reason to oppose surrogacy, but the son of Amir Ohana is not guilty. Anyway I get the idea: Bibi's gene is mutating into something more destructive

What can we expect from Biden?

Obviously talked about prince Joffrey aka Yair Netanyahu for those who didn't get the jest.

Biden...who knows, Biden has been rather unsympathetic to the Israeli right as the archives can tell from the early 80's but generally pro-Israel. with the Senate so close I doubt he will want to give Bibi excuses to go behind his back and pressure the Dem caucus there. Bibi lost a massive card with Trump gone, but Biden has enough on his plate to tackle Bibi right now. Most of the business will be about Iran, whether Biden will disown Trump's peace plan altogether remains to be seen.