Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[jaymichaud]

Lol good. The 35th government was totally illegitimate.

[jaymichaud]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

Not sure. I’ll doubt they’ll run alone considering how unpopular Peretz is. Shmuli might jump ship. They might run win Meretz (with a shotgun wedding) or with B&W if they run at all. Or they will run with the new Holdai party.

Is there really going to be a Huldai party? I feel like there's been speculation about this for the last two decades and it's never happened. Why would Huldai run now that he's 76 and probably wouldn't be a prime ministerial contender, which he could have been in the past?

Well firstly because he said he’ll run a few days ago. So I guess that’s happening.
Secondly he rightly senses that there is a sentiment right now of people looking for good managers regardless of left and right post Covid. Honestly he’s the best managerial type the left has to offer.

Even if he doesn’t propel himself to the top he’ll get a ministerial position. And after 22 years as mayor it might look an interesting change for him

What's the point in starting a new political party? Judging by where he'd be on the political spectrum a 'Huldai party' would just be Havoda in drag.

[jaymichaud]

This is becoming hilarious

We asked?

[jaymichaud]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

Meretz won’t back Sa’ar.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/justice-minister-avi-nissenkorn-joining-tel-aviv-mayors-party-653611

Awful name, but hopefully it'll help motivate the center-left to get out and vote.

Policy wise i'm assuming it'll just be the Labor Party in drag, but i'm wondering whether it'll absorb Labor for the sake of saving a few tens of thousands of votes or if that party will just die altogether.

[jaymichaud]

Eisenkot officially sits this one out. We might see him if there's a fifth-round but otherwise, I think he's cleverly avoiding the predictable mistake.

Polling from after Huldai's announcement shows his party of 8 seats, Meretz on 5, B&W on 4 close to the threshold. Likud are starting to get closer to the 25 mark. So far anti Bibi coalition is at least mathematically possible in all polls

Even if Likud can get Bennett back on board (Gantz, you’re no longer the biggest wimp to run for PM if this happens) that’s still only 53 seats. Very poor

[jaymichaud]

This scenario, literally impossible, was polled:

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1344250385150701569

Still interesting, though.

Excluding Telem, that alliance seems more like the old Labor than anything else we've seen lately. Let's not forget that Meretz was only founded in 1992, and Alignment was very big tent had everyone ranging from left wing socialists to liberal centrists.

[jaymichaud]

backdoor deals in Meretz as usual. Primaries canceled the list will be:
1. Horowitz
2. Zandberg
3. Golan
4. Rinawi-Zoabi (a new figure, a female Arab who did work in local governance)
5. Freg

Former MK Gilon and leader of the red faction will not run this time, considering he nearly died of Covid I think it's safe to say he'll never run again. his faction controls the party but has no immediate figure to replace Gilon.

It still remains to be seen whether Meretz will run alone this time. could be.

Related to Haneen?

[jaymichaud]

Lapid and Ya'alon have officially parted ways. Right decision tbh, YA-T was a rump party and given the difference in ideology there really wasn't anything to keep them together.

Telem MKs are off to join YB or Sa'ar I assume?

[jaymichaud]

Channel 13 Poll
Likud - 29
New Hope - 16
Yesh Atid - 13
Yamina/New Right - 13
Joint List - 10
Shas - 8
UTJ - 8
Yisrael Beitenu - 7
Israelis - 6
Meretz - 5
B&W - 5
----------------------------
NEP - 2.7%
Religious Zionist Party - 2.5%
Labor - 1.1%
Telem - 0.7%
Jewish Home - 0.7%
Otzma - 0.7%
Tnufa - 0.3%
Gesher - 0.0%

Sa'ar + Gantz + Lapid + Bennett + Lieberman + Huldai is 60.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

How do Likud match the definition of populism?

[jaymichaud]

Ch.13 poll:
Likud - 32
Yesh Atid - 18
New Hope - 14
Joint List - 10
Yamina - 10
UTJ - 7
YB - 6
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
B&W - 4
Israelim - 4
LABOUR - 4

[jaymichaud]

"Meteor guided personally by Yisrael Katz destroys the city of Beersheva and surrounding area, sending up plume of dust that will obscure sun, dooming agriculture for 100 years"

Likud: 32

[jaymichaud]

Soo the Joint List is officially split. Ra'am and Ta'al are both running on their own.

[jaymichaud]

Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

Otzma got 20k votes in round 3, hardly substantial. Round 1 was the big waste in votes.

I think Zalicha burns votes from both blocs. Telem will get a pathetic showing (Ephraim Sneh style). Shelah will either join some union or quit before. So the biggest waste will probably come from the religious right again, and maybe one Arab party.

There seem to be four center-to-left parties close to the threshold: Meretz, Labour, Blue&White and The Israelis. Do you think that there will be mergers (e.g. Labour and The Israelis)? Do you think that some might not even run (e.g. Blue&White)? Do you think that all lists that eventually run will cross the threshold? What makes you sure that they will?

Labour and Israelim certainly, idk about Gantz though.

[jaymichaud]

I'm not even center-left but Merav's determination has me rooting for her, what a woman!

[jaymichaud]

Channel 13 Poll:
Likud 29
Yesh Atid 16
New Hope 16
Joint List 10
Yamina 10
Labor 8 (!!)
UTJ 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beytenu 7
Meretz 5
Blue and White 4

[jaymichaud]

Smotrich and Otzma's Ben Gvir reached an agreement to run together. Ben Gvir placed third, the representative of rabidly homophobic party Noam 6th.

Absolutely disgusting. There’s no depth these guys and the other usual suspects won’t sink to.

The court needs to disqualify Ben Ari and the leader of Noam immediately.

[jaymichaud]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

Orly Levy is going to be listed as number 26 in Likud. And she's basically Gesher's only member and voter.

Uhhh? So was she actually a fifth column or is she just that self absorbed?

[jaymichaud]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

Here's the interesting thing. Yamina is just Bennett right now, no NU and JH is only a background ally. Yamina has also expressed interest in the anti-Bibi/anti-Haredi govt, so they might end up betraying Bibi for the Sa'ar - Lapid -Lieberman option. There is a reason why Bibi tried to build up a new "Yamina" coalition among the minor right-wing religious Zionists and fascist groups.

However, Bibi will will end up with the most seats this election, that much is guaranteed. There is additionally no cut-and-dry opposition govt that can easily be formed based on political similarities. So Likud will end up with the structural advantage when looking to form a government, which could easily lead to previous doubter joining his govt - similar to Gantz last round. There is additionally an undercurrent that if Sa'ar or Bibi end up with momentum after the election then some MK's elected for Likud/NH may jump ship to the other, to preserve their own personal access to power, changing the math entirely. This is why Sa'ar still is the likely non-Bibi PM candidate, even though Lapid has more MK's in polls.

At most there could be a YA/NH/Labor/Yamina/YB/B&W frankenstein coalition with Lapid and Sa'ar as rotating PMs, but government formation could be hard work and they probably wouldn't get sh**t done anyways.

[jaymichaud]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

It’s pretty simple. If Likud+Haredi+Smotric+Yamina is >= 61 that’s going to be the government and Bennett will squeeze Bibi out to the max. If there’s a majority of 61 for the anti Bibi without JL and with Yamina, Bennett will sweat for weeks before agreeing to join a Saar government. If we get a scenario with no overall majority with the joint list we’ll be heading to another election.
With all the personal animosity, I do think Bennett prefers the first option. Shaked defiantly does.

Most polls have had that alliance in the high 50s, i'm not too sure if there'll be an overperformance though cause whenever Likud exceeds expectations then it's always at the expense of other right wing parties, no?

Anyways, how would the Joint List even fit into the equation? Especially if they truly do get 10 seats or less.

[jaymichaud]

Oh, then Lapid left the coalition? Clear.

Lapid has gone back to using the Yesh Atid name.

🟠🦍

monke

[jaymichaud]

Yesh Atid beginning to poll in the 20s now 🟠🦍

[jaymichaud]

Either Bennett is a huge wimp or genuinely stupid.

I’ll be surprised if he gets more than 6-7 seats tomorrow.

[jaymichaud]

Final countdown prediction:
Gantz is in
Meretz and Ra'am out.
Bibi has no government with Yamina
Lapid has no government for a YA coalition
All hell is going to break loose in the house as the non Bibi majority will try to get rid of Levine and pass  a change to the basic law

http://objectivevote.org.il/?page=platforms&lang=he
a decent whodoIsidewith

Yesh Atid: 17
Meretz: 11
New Hope: 10
Labor: 10
B&W: 7
Yamina: 6
Yisrael Beiteinu: 3
Likud: 2
RZ: 1
------------
NEP: 0
------------
UAL: -1
UTJ: -3
Shas: -3
Joint List: -3

No correlation lol.