Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Velasco]

Leaving aside  war crimes in Gaza, Benny Gantz will go down in history as an useful idiot. Sad

[Velasco]

Leaving aside  war crimes in Gaza, Benny Gantz will go down in history as an useful idiot. Sad

Worse, his name will now mean being fooled like an idiot. Though we can look on the bright side, the centre-left will be suspicious of ex generals (3 stars) from now on. 3 of them are in the Knesset atm, 2.5 of them are complete morons.

It"s positive that people can learn lessons from past mistakes. The problem is that... well... the centre-left in Israel strikes to me as The Incredible Shrinking Man, let alone Labor. If I wanted to look on the bright side, I'd say something like "the present is dire but the future is an open book". Gantz would be on the centre-right in a normal country anyway

Regarding 3 Star generals, you had better men in the past

[Velasco]

Anyway, yeah, I'm back after a breif hiatus. I also recommend this thread stops viewing it as a left-right vote, cause Labor is DOA, and more as a Secular vs Religious & their Enablers, cause that was for several years now - and likely will be - how blocks and coalitions are structured.

I agree with you as the main cleavage is not left vs right, amomg other things because the left in Israel is increasingly irrelevant. However, my impression as a non-expert outsider is that the main cleavage is not on the religious question, even though it's an important element. I'd say there's a national-religious-settler bloc opposed to the weakened proponents of a secular state. I think the ultranationalist element (the evolution of the so-called "revisionist zionism") is more important than the religious one. Liberal zionism is in a steep decline, on the other hand

[Velasco]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

[Velasco]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

There's no alternative to Bibi's bloc without the coooeration of the Joint List, so Netanyahu will stay forever if he wants to.  According to the Wikipedia "New Hope" is "conservative" and "national liberal", something like the German People's Party in the Weimar era.

[Velasco]

What's the stance of Gideon Sa'ar and his new secular conservative party with regards the annexation of (large swathes of) the West Bank? It's clear that Bibi prefers buying time and status quo, as the deal with the UAE demonstrates and regardless his campaign promises. But the far-right settlers must be very displeased and their seats could be neccessary to forge a new majority...

[Velasco]

What's the stance of Gideon Sa'ar and his new secular conservative party with regards the annexation of (large swathes of) the West Bank? It's clear that Bibi prefers buying time and status quo, as the deal with the UAE demonstrates and regardless his campaign promises. But the far-right settlers must be very displeased and their seats could be neccessary to forge a new majority...

Pro annexation, not unlike Bennet or the Likud.

I think Bibi genuinely wanted to annex something but Gantz and Ashkenazi did swift moves in DC to prevent it. he won't do so with a dem president the white house

I'm sure that Bibi and Gantz wanted to anex something. It's a question of timing and opportunity. I doubt Gantz has any strategic visión, but Netanyahu is diffferent

Anyway this article in Times of Israel explains things a bit. It's all again focused on the figure of Netanyahu, plus the emergence of two ambitious challengers on the right and  the far right, Sa'ar and Bennet. This election will certificate the defunction of the centre-left Labor party and the vanishment of Blue & White (claiming Gantz, Lapid or Peretz are "centre-left" politicians is a joke but whatever). Israel drifts further and further to the right and elections are no longer about ideology or different projects but a matter of personal ambitions. Whoever wins the course f destruction continúes. Sad

https://www.timesofisrael.com/whoever-wins-well-be-a-fundamentally-changed-israel-when-this-election-is-over/

[Velasco]

It was basically Ashkenazi who Stopped the annexation...I think he will be on the move, paradoxically maybe even to the right.

The collapse of the left and the left-right distinction as an ideological spheres competing for dominance is the essence of Bibism. I’m too tired to start writing on text walls on political and sociological changes since Bibi first appeared in 88. And too old as most posters here can hardly remember the pre Bibi era. So I’ll just leave it be.

I’m not registered to any party for almost two years now and quite happy about. As to the “left” they got what they deserved

It seems that Israel is reaching the final stages of that process of political and sociological changes you are referring to. Apparently there exists the possibility to see Netanyahu ousted from power by his adversaries, but this is becoming increasingly irrelevant. The most important feature to watch, in my opinion, is that we are witnessing the definitive and irrevocable end of the idea of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. Regardless what the future will be, that mythological Israel (the "beacon of democracy") no longer exists. That idea is dead an buried and will never come back. I'm sorry for the forum members fond of romantic ideas about Israel, but this is it

[Velasco]

I think Bibi will be gone by June. But Bibism is here to stay. And that’s the pickle, because the Bibists gen 2 would be less savvy and clever than the original, but far more ignorant and violent. Like Amir Ohana or his wretched son

You are giving me a new reason to oppose surrogacy, but the son of Amir Ohana is not guilty. Anyway I get the idea: Bibi's gene is mutating into something more destructive

What can we expect from Biden?

[Velasco]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

How do Likud match the definition of populism?

You ever saw their ads? low and shallow, cheap shots, and blaming everyone on being a radical leftist arab lover. plus the electorate is by definition populist

I don't know what is a "populist voter", but I think one of the defining features of rightwing populism is the search for enemies. Donald Trump and your crazed criminal rightwingers cannot exist without enemies: either internal or external, real or imaginary.  So yes, Likud and other parties (nearly all the parliamentary forces, actually) are in that brand of populism

[Velasco]

Per Jerusalem Post, Ra’am is going to back Netanyahu and will make it official on Monday

Where are you seeing this? Its not a story up on their website or on twitter.

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/bennett-to-decide-coalition-after-netanyahu-lapid-meetings-663632/amp

Sorry, I thought I included the link.  They bury the lead a bit (it comes late-ish in the article) and the announcement will be tomorrow rather than Monday.

The funny thing is that Mansour Abbas says he could change his mind in case there's a better offer from the opposite camp, but anyway there's no room for that manoeuvre since the announcement is tomorrow. So we have an Islamist kingmaker (it's not strange JPost tries to conceal that) who likes trolling and is about as despicable as their Zionist and Ultra-orthodox counterparts. Amazing developments to come in Dystopia

[Velasco]

By the moment Mansour Abbas is crowning himself as the leader of the Palestinian citizens of Israel and possibly this Islamist counterpart is what the Jewish Israelis deserve

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-speech-to-jewish-israel-abbas-crowns-himself-new-leader-of-countrys-arabs

 Love him or hate him, Mansour Abbas has proven himself to be an adept politician. He has defied expectations at every turn: first, breaking off from the Joint List alliance rather than submit to party orders; then, running a disciplined electoral campaign that carried his party, all on its lonesome, well over the voter threshold.

Now Abbas seems poised to complete his hat trick: to make his Arab Israeli party an active player in a right-wing government. And not just any right-wing government, but one run by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is widely reviled among Arab Israelis for years of race-baiting remarks and advancing legislation denounced as discriminatory

 (...)

"I, Mansour Abbas, a man of the Islamic Movement, am a proud Arab and Muslim, a citizen of the state of Israel, who heads the leading, biggest political movement in Arab society,” Abbas said, a reference to his victory over Hadash.

Odeh has ceaselessly preached the values of Arab-Jewish partnership, coexistence, equality, and mutual respect. But he has done so on terms unacceptable until now to Jewish Israeli politicians, as he refuses to compromise on invoking the Palestinian national cause. Nor would he have ever have considered sitting with Netanyahu.

But the Joint List head had to be clenching his fists while watching Thursday night’s broadcast from Nazareth. After all, if the center-left had been either as courageous or as desperate as Netanyahu may well be today, it could have been Odeh standing on that platform last year, seeking to usher in a new era in Arab-Jewish relations within the Green Line.

Bibi isn’t trying to form a government. It’s a sham, be doesn’t want to be in the mercy of Bennett. He’s trying to make Ra’am their demands so high so no one else could agree to give them what they want.

As I predicted two years ago, the presidential election is where the focus will be now. The fifth cycle is looking grim to him atm, he’ll try going in with more mustard.

I don't live there,  nor follow Israeli politics on a daily basis. I suspect, however, but even if I was an insider I'd be unable to predict the immediate future. I guess Netanyahu will do whatever is neccessary to survive and fear that your country is in a full descent into hell. I mean the real country shared by Jewish and Palestinians under a regime of apartheid, not only the ethno-state containing a despised Arab minority

[Velasco]

 I think it's amazing to see how passionate can be the discussion  on whether the leader of the National (Netanyahu) or the Conservative (Bennett) parties become PM, using the Afrikaner nationalist equivalents to Likud and Yamina. In the end, this situation of endless deadlock and election repetitions is a mere symptom of some malfunction

[Velasco]

I think it's amazing to see how passionate can be the discussion  on whether the leader of the National (Netanyahu) or the Conservative (Bennett) parties become PM, using the Afrikaner nationalist equivalents to Likud and Yamina. In the end, this situation of endless deadlock and election repetitions is a mere symptom of some malfunction

To be fair, this ignores that Lapid (~Democratic Party) is also likely to become the PM, and that leftist and Arab parties are somewhat significant.

The equivalences are not complete (they never are), for Israel has proportional representation and a multi-party political system (not to mention the oddity of Shas and UTJ).

 Lapid is not the equivalent to a Democratic Party leader,  because his political faction has never questioned the apartheid state. The only loose equivalent to that liberal party in Israeli politics is Meretz. On the other hand, the Zionist left is irrelevant these days (Labor is a walking corpse). In the past the zionist faction reprsesented by Ben Gurion and and his successors was somewhat reminiscent of the United Party (imo), while the rightwing revisionist faction has a clear counterpart in the National Party.

Finally the 'Arab' parties are systematically ignored, so their role in Israeli politics is anecdotal, aside from voicing their opposition to apartheid (I value the role of Odeh, but he's powerless). For that matter,  they could be part of a 'colored' chamber

[Velasco]

I think it's amazing to see how passionate can be the discussion  on whether the leader of the National (Netanyahu) or the Conservative (Bennett) parties become PM, using the Afrikaner nationalist equivalents to Likud and Yamina. In the end, this situation of endless deadlock and election repetitions is a mere symptom of some malfunction

While you for sure are one of the best posters on here, your stance on Israel is disturbing. Especially coming from a Spaniard, a country which actively denies the right to self determination to Basques and Catalans, and doesn't recognize the right to unilateral secession (Kosovo). Why are Palestinians worthy of a state while others aren't?

I think talking about Basque Country and Catalonia in relation to the situation of Israel-Palestine is mixing apples and oranges. I have no problem in discussing if Basques and Catalans have the right to self-determination (surely I stated my opinion on this subject more than once), but regardless what you may think, the population of these regions is not living under an oppressive military dictatorship, apartheid or colonial regime. Catalans and Basques are Spanish citizens enjoying full rights. I know, the Spanish government is contrary to the indy-ref, but even separatists live in a democratic state and are protected from abuse by the laws ruling for all. Trying to compare these realities with the situation of a stateless people submitted to a brutal military occupation -under an apartheid or a colonial regime- must be a joke, because otherwise I don't understand what are you trying to mean with your post.

I don't support unilateral seccession as a general rule (I'm in the opinion these processes must be negotiated), even though I admit the situation of Kosovo was special because of the blatant oppression by the Milosevic regime. These matters are complex. As for the Palestinians, rather than a separate state for them, I simply advocate they enjoy the same status of the Jewish Israelis. The fact the former are not allowed to do the same things the latter are permitted, is the most obvious evidence of the existence of an apartheid regime.  Do you think is disturbing that Palestinians are allowed to vote the government that rules over their lives?

[Velasco]

What happened?

Ra'am froze talks because of an escalation with Hamas after some sort of clash at the Al-Aqsa Mosque the other day.

That "sort of clash" might trigger a civil war or a new Intifada, but you frame it as it was an anecdotical event.  I don't want to disturb your speculations on coalition talks, but it's extremely difficult to dissociate them from reality. It's like emperor Nero playing the lyre while Rome Jerusalem bursts into flames. In any case, from what I've been gathering, the anti-Bibi coalition wouldn't change anything and the chances for another electoral repetition are high,  so my interest in these dealings is very limited in comparison to the impending violence that darkens the horizon
 

[Velasco]

Indeed, Biden did his part. Is it the first time Bibi uses the *right of Israel to defend itself* within the *escalation of the conflict* to his advantage?

I hope nobody is surprised to discover that Bibi is the smartest beast in that pack of hyenas. Otherwise wake up, folks. Don't pretend Israel is a democracy and you are discussing coalition formation in Belgium or the Netherlands

[Velasco]

What difference does it make?

 Bennett, Sa'ar snd Lieberman are brutal and racist; they would implement brutal and racist policies. Lapid and Gantz are slightly more moderate on the surface, but not different in essence. Labour and Meretz are insignificant and their opinion wouldn't be taken into account, in case their leaders protest for some abuse. I mean, a government of the anti-Bibi block would be equally right-wing and implement exactly the same policies, especially on the issues that define the democratic or undemocratic character of the state. In other words, the only difference between right-wing government A and right-wing government B is the penal fate of Bibi. It's quite a feat for a politician to become the center of everything for decades. In that respect Bibi is admirable (don't take me wrong, I think he is evil). But regardless how important Bibi is for Israel,  he is not the root cause. The causes of the conflict between Israel and democracy are structural.

[Velasco]

I don't think anyone is under the illusion that the anti-Netanyahu bloc would be meaningfully dovish on security or the peace process. It's just a vehicle to restore Israeli democratic and anti-corruption norms by jailing Bibi. That's better than the alternative.

The cleavage between "hawks" and "doves" is long gone and there is nothing resembling a "peace process". You are missing my point, because the structural problems I'm referring to concern the essence of democracy, issues bigger than security or anti-corruption policies

[Velasco]

What difference does it make?

 Bennett, Sa'ar snd Lieberman are brutal and racist; they would implement brutal and racist policies. Lapid and Gantz are slightly more moderate on the surface, but not different in essence. Labour and Meretz are insignificant and their opinion wouldn't be taken into account, in case their leaders protest for some abuse. I mean, a government of the anti-Bibi block would be equally right-wing and implement exactly the same policies, especially on the issues that define the democratic or undemocratic character of the state. In other words, the only difference between right-wing government A and right-wing government B is the penal fate of Bibi. It's quite a feat for a politician to become the center of everything for decades. In that respect Bibi is admirable (don't take me wrong, I think he is evil). But regardless how important Bibi is for Israel,  he is not the root cause. The causes of the conflict between Israel and democracy are structural.

This post is both facetious and inflammatory, especially since you know the difference but willfully ignore it. I understand your anger, I'm currently depressed via the whiplash of this situation, but that isn't an excuse. What if I decided to walk into the Spanish Politics thread, decided to ignore all the nuance from past research, and say there is no difference between the CUP, Pudigmont, and ERC?

It's a pity,  but I respect your decision.

Regarding Israel and democracy,  I just read this article in the WaPo. I recommend you to read the full text before claiming bad faith or facetiousness

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/israel-has-chosen-a-two-tiered-society-violence-is-the-inevitable-result/2021/05/14/3ab35f2e-b424-11eb-a980-a60af976ed44_story.html?s=09

 
 It is a commonly accepted falsehood that Israel is a “Jewish and democratic” state. In fact, it is neither: It is a binational, inherently undemocratic entity governed through an apartheid regime. The fragmentation of Palestinians may serve to obfuscate the truth, but how can a reality of demographic parity — some 7 million Jews, some 7 million Palestinians — be considered only “Jewish”? And when most of those Palestinians are kept disenfranchised, how can it be considered “democratic”?

It's understandable thst you are depressed with this situation, but don't blame me for saying all this violence is structural