Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021 (user search)
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  Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021  (Read 69012 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: December 23, 2020, 01:44:33 AM »


Who is we? Are you Israeli? I thought you were Canadian.

And yeah four elections in two years is pretty hilarious. Just more proof that Israel is a dysfunctional, failed democracy.

I mean, if the voters are polarized, fail to give either block a majority and punish anyone who breaks ranks like B&W, can we blame em? The parliamentary system tends to struggle in these scenarios cause no one wants to cooperate even though the system needs you to.

Anyway, yeah, I'm back after a breif hiatus. I also recommend this thread stops viewing it as a left-right vote, cause Labor is DOA, and more as a Secular vs Religious & their Enablers, cause that was for several years now - and likely will be - how blocks and coalitions are structured.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2020, 01:59:15 PM »

I assume just based on the current state of polling that the parties excluded from any Sa'ar, Yamina, other potential anti-Bibi govt are the JL, Shaas, UTJ, and Likud. That gives a bit of wiggle room, less if you think Sa'ar would rather work with Arab confidence than Yamina, or if Yamina will fall behind Bibi. Of course, if, and its a big if, a anti-bibi govt begins to form then theres a good chance a bunch of Likudniks jump ship to keep access to power since its Sa'ar who would likely be leading.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2020, 07:22:51 PM »

Huldai to announce a new party tomorrow. Rather pointless as we all know it will end in all sorts of mergers

Lapid is courting Livin to return and might axe Boogie (good riddance). Might help him with funds and electorally, might make future coalition talks with Sa’ar harder.

Meretz appears to be heading towards a solo run.

Sa’ar got some more Likud mayors to join today.

Bennett is really bad at campaigning.


* since Huldai will resign as mayor elections will be held within 60 days of his resignation, direct election. As it’s Tel Aviv and it’s a prestigious position we might see some big names run. I knew Akunis from Likud is thinking about it. Zamir from B&W will be there. I suppose someone from Meretz will enter. The Tel Aviv elections is usually the left vs centre left.

Does he have the power to choose when exactly he will resign, or is simply the act of adding his name to a national list require resignation. I can think of quite a few reasons why one would want the election to coincide with the national one for example, but that would require resigning on a exact date.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2020, 01:51:51 PM »

Kann poll:
Likud - 28
Sa'ar - 18
Yamina - 14
Yesh Atid 13
JL 11
Huldai 8
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 5
Meretz - 4
B&W - 4

fit to be PM:
Bibi - 41%
Sa'ar - 33%

Sa'ar + Yamina + Huldai + B&W + YA + YB = 62
no need for JL or Meretz here

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Balfour now...

Given what’s happened to Labour would Huldai be okay to get in to bed with Saar and Bennett? Or is the reason fir Gantz/Labor’s fall more attributable to opposition to Netanyahu himself than opposition to right wing politics? I ask because to an outsider Saar/Bennett seem to be more right wing than Netanyahu and further from Huldai (and his presumed base).

This election (at least as an outsider) appears to be the culmination of the past three votes. Each election eventually returned enough MKs to oppose a Likud government, but not enough to form a opposition one or crucially deny Likud from utilizing its political capital from seizing the dominant position post-election. Every govt needed to flow through Likud, even a Gantz led one, despite the voters opposing this. Given a bit of reflection time, the parties have realized that there is no Bibi heir, and the public wouldn't mind seeing him go. So, we get an election where there are more than enough candidates opposed to a Bibi govt for once, because those candidates may have the opportunity to take the reins.

So personally, I suspect its better from Huladi[s perspective to take the deal and roll the dice. This election is all about removing Bibi the hard way, so furthering that goal is a perfectly legitimate immediate goal. The political earth will immediately begin to shift if any anti-Bibi govt is formed - a good number of the MKs elected on the Likud ticket will probably immediately hop over to Sa'ar or Bennet for example. You always have the option of bringing down the govt after the immediate goal is satisfied and the resulting political upheavals make such a coalition unworkable.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2021, 07:47:25 PM »

YA and Telem part ways as expected.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2021, 02:04:50 PM »



The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2021, 05:00:48 PM »



The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!
Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

How do Likud match the definition of populism?

They arn't, Likud is a Party of Power. The play seems to be that the anti-Authoritarian Conservatives of Lincoln are naturally at home with a Conservative seeking to stop creeping authoritarianism. I assume they are going adjust their tactics to the environment, similar to Bibi and McLaughlin previously.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2021, 02:51:15 PM »

Smotrich and Otzma's Ben Gvir reached an agreement to run together. Ben Gvir placed third, the representative of rabidly homophobic party Noam 6th.

New Hope list:
1. Gideon Sa'ar
2. Yifat Shasha Biton
3. Ze'ev Elkin, former major Likud figure
4. Yoaz Hendel, trojan horse
5. Sharen Haskel, libertarian darling from Likud
6. Benny Begin, former MK and son of former PM Begin
7. Meir Yitzhak Halevi, Eilat Mayor
8. Zvi Hauser, trojan horse
9. Michal Shir, former MK and Sa'ar aide
10. Hila Shai Vazan, former KL MK

Fairly unimpressive list. A nobody from KL in the top 10? Who's in places 10-15 which are currently realistic?

Oh, and their calling JH to join their list, so the Fascist ticket may not be final.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2021, 12:26:29 PM »

Tnufa is also out BTW, if anyone cared.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2021, 03:34:46 PM »

JH withdraws their ticket, endorses their former Yamina partners in exchange for potential ministerial seat. Sounds like a slap in the face to Bibi's attempt to build a united Fascist ticket if Yamina is actually gonna end up deserting him for that potential Non-Haredi/Non-Bibi right-wing govt.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2021, 11:59:15 AM »

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

Here's the interesting thing. Yamina is just Bennett right now, no NU and JH is only a background ally. Yamina has also expressed interest in the anti-Bibi/anti-Haredi govt, so they might end up betraying Bibi for the Sa'ar - Lapid -Lieberman option. There is a reason why Bibi tried to build up a new "Yamina" coalition among the minor right-wing religious Zionists and fascist groups.

However, Bibi will will end up with the most seats this election, that much is guaranteed. There is additionally no cut-and-dry opposition govt that can easily be formed based on political similarities. So Likud will end up with the structural advantage when looking to form a government, which could easily lead to previous doubter joining his govt - similar to Gantz last round. There is additionally an undercurrent that if Sa'ar or Bibi end up with momentum after the election then some MK's elected for Likud/NH may jump ship to the other, to preserve their own personal access to power, changing the math entirely. This is why Sa'ar still is the likely non-Bibi PM candidate, even though Lapid has more MK's in polls.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2021, 05:17:24 PM »

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.
It’s pretty simple. If Likud+Haredi+Smotric+Yamina is >= 61 that’s going to be the government and Bennett will squeeze Bibi out to the max. If there’s a majority of 61 for the anti Bibi without JL and with Yamina, Bennett will sweat for weeks before agreeing to join a Saar government. If we get a scenario with no overall majority with the joint list we’ll be heading to another election.
With all the personal animosity, I do think Bennett prefers the first option. Shaked defiantly does.

Most polls have had that alliance in the high 50s, i'm not too sure if there'll be an overperformance though cause whenever Likud exceeds expectations then it's always at the expense of other right wing parties, no?

Anyways, how would the Joint List even fit into the equation? Especially if they truly do get 10 seats or less.

The Joint List this cycle has no prospects - if they couldn't get access under Gantz, they certainly won't with Sa'ar. This means that the list is clearly an opposing 3rd pillar, so any anti-Bibi potential government must obtain more than 61 without the Arab parties.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2021, 10:26:25 AM »

Well, Bibi's trial resumed today.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2021, 11:32:31 AM »

What do this people want, to get 1% in the polls like Peretz? Well, the answer is yes, as long as they get to control the party.

I genuinely don't get this determination to "control" a smoking ruin at almost any cost.

(and yes, recent parallels with certain other social democratic parties are certainly available)

When a party is imploding, it this type of infighting only becomes more common even though it has a high chance of facilitating the parties destruction in the long term. Those that seek positions of leadership are more likely to recognize the long term trajectory and want to readjust that trend, whatever the cost. However, everyone comes in with this mindset. This means only one 'reformer' can only ever really be satisfied, all the others always see the current leadership as continuing to facilitate or even encouraging the parties decline. They therefore take steps to oppose this leadership before it does any perceived damage, which means more infighting.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2021, 10:15:38 AM »


However, imagine this situation: Likud + Haredim + Kahanists + Yamina can't reach 61, only Yesh Atid + New Hope + Yamina + YB + Labour + KL + outside support from Meretz can. What'll happen first- Bennet breaks his promise and sits in a Lapid government with Labour, Sa'ar breaks his promise and joins Netanyahu, or a new election? Hard to say, but I wouldn't completely discount the first.

I'd like to think that deadlock would be broken by the Likud MKs who would jump to New Hope once it appears the opposition actually has the votes to build a govt, they just need to decide who gets what.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2021, 02:22:04 PM »

I mean, what if Bibi's bloc *does* fall just short of the magic 60 again?

How many times will people be asked to vote before they get the "right" (and indeed, right) answer??

I mean it would be very hard for neither Likud+Haredi+Yamina+Kahanists or YA+NH+Yamina+KL+Labor+Meretz+BW to get a majority of seats since Yamina at least appears to want to work with either alignment if they get a majority - albeit preferring Bibi of course. If neither has a majority though I expect Bibi to use the soft power tools of a dominant-party system to pull in Likudists from NH. Similar situation to if one of the blocks gets a majority since individual Likudites in NH/Likud would prefer power, and then hop to the one which has the majority. If it happens to be the non-Likud govt then defectors mean they a govt can form without the minor leftists, which would allow the govt to potentially last longer than it takes to see Bibi permanently tossed aside.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2021, 09:52:52 AM »
« Edited: March 22, 2021, 12:34:03 PM by Oryxslayer »

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

Explain please.

Also there was a bunch of anti-Bibi protests last night, but as we all know crowd size =/= results.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2021, 02:48:54 PM »

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.
I'm baffled, I assume his internal polling shows that Bibi is short squeezing him atm

As is electoral tradition, he is diving. And he's flailing. It's just that this time he's losing votes not just to Bibi but now he's also losing the few yuppie liberals in Ramat Aviv that had been supporting him hecause of his strong ideas on the pandemic.

The National Religious are always squeezed by Likud's Gevalt right at the end of the campaign (which is why the Kahanists are probably out and wasting votes), and since it happens like clockwork and they don't know how to stop it, things like this happen.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2021, 03:28:53 PM »

Sa’ar went from being the alternative to Netanyahu to possibly leading the smallest party in the Knesset. Seems like the big loser of the election. Wasn’t there talk of New Hope MPs gravitating towards Likud again if the result was bad?

Sa'ar definitely fell off during the campaign. If Bibi+Yamina keeps 61 then some former Likudites may come crawling back.

However, these exit polls feel like there is a lot of uncertainty around the results - and I'm not saying that cause Bibi+Yamina have 61. A lot of parties results appear to differ from the polls so there could be a fluctuations in all directions when votes come in. I'm personally interested how far the polls put Ra'am below the threshold.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2021, 03:36:31 PM »

Sa’ar went from being the alternative to Netanyahu to possibly leading the smallest party in the Knesset. Seems like the big loser of the election. Wasn’t there talk of New Hope MPs gravitating towards Likud again if the result was bad?

Sa'ar definitely fell off during the campaign. If Bibi+Yamina keeps 61 then some former Likudites may come crawling back.

However, these exit polls feel like there is a lot of uncertainty around the results - and I'm not saying that cause Bibi+Yamina have 61. A lot of parties results appear to differ from the polls so there could be a fluctuations in all directions when votes come in. I'm personally interested how far the polls put Ra'am below the threshold.

According to the Channel 12 dude: quite far. No chance of them passing

So then part of the results may be because Ra'am -> JL, JL -> Lab/Meretz....or maybe Bibi's Arab "campaign" worked. We will have to see when results come in, and if I recall from last time, the Arab towns cam in last because of extra security concerns.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2021, 03:39:38 PM »

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like this is in the bag for Bibi, really can't see Yamina supporting a YA-led government?

Well, first the math would have to be there, and Yamina right now would go with Likud cause the math favors that direction. If the math favors such a government than I'm sure they would find some way to compromise, or some others would join with Likud to form another "emergency" govt.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2021, 03:44:20 PM »

Did anyone post link to results ?  I could not find it.

They will appear here with time: https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

Ynet has a election map, but since there is no unified opposition, the map will probably be very Likud Blue, even with Israel's factionalism. Most useful for knowing where the results reporting are from, unless you want to download the excel file from the main site like me. http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/ElectionMap2021/
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2021, 04:14:50 PM »


LMAO at Joint List. I wonder who they'll inevitably blame for this.


well the JL list a good number of votes to the threshold with what appears to be a Ra'am suicide. Arab turnout also was noted to be weaker than in 2020, so theres another few voters. However, I suspect when we start seeing the votes from places like Nazareth and the Triangle we may see that other parties dug into their unified 2020 vote...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2021, 04:18:48 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2021, 04:26:34 PM by Oryxslayer »

Why are there so many parties? In other parliamentary democracies, you end up with two major parties and a few smaller ones. Why is this different in Israel? It seems like there are just a bunch of small-medium sized parties + Likud.

Infinitesimal Factionalism. If you want to have your mind blown every one of these parties except maybe Yisrael Beitenu is either an umbrella organization/alliance for smaller parties and factions or a merger of several parties and factions - including Likud. I don't recommend it to anyone deeply familiar with Israeli politics, but there is a good primer for the uninformed that I wrote for DDHQ (which is itself a summery of the two that I wrote for the newsletter) up on their site right now that explains why this is a thing.

AKA: you put two Jews in a room you get 3 opinions but politics.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2021, 04:48:12 PM »

67.2% is the final projected turnout discounting double envelopes, which there may be more of this year.
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