Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021 (user search)
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Author Topic: Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021  (Read 69025 times)
brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,453
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« on: December 22, 2020, 10:04:20 AM »

Election #4! Give it up for Election #4!

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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,453
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2020, 09:57:13 AM »

This thread is for discussing an election, please.
Is this not election related?
How is an American Marvel production have anything to do with our election?

*DC. Us MCU stans do not claim the DCEU as our own.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2020, 02:24:13 PM »

These polls have zero value. A new party was literally announced today. These polls are being conducted without even knowing the full extent of election participation.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2021, 03:07:52 PM »

Welcome back, Walmart_shopper!


Former PM Olmert endorses...Labour

I'm sure they're just soo thrilled to have the endorsement of an ex-PM who went to prison for corruption.
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2021, 02:47:28 PM »

You can never be sure about these things, but I feel like Naftali Bennet doing a seppuku on national tv last night probably makes a fifth election quite a bit more likely.

They really better not go to a 5th election.

(Narrator: they're going to a 5th election.)
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2021, 12:16:39 AM »

I'm starting to think that Israel's just never gonna have a new PM at this rate. Might as well just replace the impending 5th election with a constituent assembly that writes a new Constitution/Basic Law to either completely revise the electoral system or just codify the unfortunate Bibi monarchy into law.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2021, 08:01:33 PM »

A fifth election is the most likely outcome by far, but the biggest question is if, in the mean time, there will be 61 votes to pass a law disqualifying anyone under indictment from being Prime Minister.

Well, there now appear to be 61 votes from politicians whose constituencies hate Bibi, so hopefully. God only knows that there's really no other way for this whole crisis to be resolved unless he's finally out.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2021, 09:40:49 AM »
« Edited: March 25, 2021, 09:47:07 AM by brucejoel99 »

Would that even be enough to change what's going on? Bibi could always offer some obvious stand-in for himself as a candidate for Prime Minister. (Or just keep running and promise to change the law to re-qualify himself if he wins, since arguably the point of the whole 2019-present political crisis is the immunity law, which Bibi wouldn't want if he weren't Prime Minister.)

The formation of New Hope seemed to offer a, well, new hope to end the crisis by convincing pro-Bibi voters over to the anti-Bibi side, but its total flameout suggests that was never going to happen. If persuasion over the course of repeated elections doesn't work, then the crisis keeps going until Likud chooses, voluntarily, to get rid of Bibi and come up with a different candidate who can convince the Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope people to rejoin their coalition. That's probably not possible unless/until Bibi actually goes to jail.

(Kind of looking forward to Gantz taking over in November at this point.)

In regards to the bolded, the proposed law wouldn't allow him to actually keep running himself unless & until it's been formally repealed.

As for everything else, the short answer is basically deep game theory magic: that is, an entire system based on the absolute power, influence, infallibility, & (frankly, the) undefeatability of one man is gonna more-or-less just absolutely be shocked to its core when he's legally forced to no longer put his own name on the ballot, with himself no longer holding formal control over Israeli politics, Likud politics, & a significant amount of the careers thereof as a result. I mean, do you really think that if Miki Zohar or somebody like him were put up by Bibi as a stand-in for his being PM, then Zohar wouldn't be sorely tempted to just use his newly-acquired power to not repeal the ban & willingly hand his formal power back over to Bibi? And that's just one consideration of such a leadership conundrum. Basically, though, it's presumed that such a point would basically amount to what would finally be the catastrophic tipping point at which Bibi's absolute leadership would basically just crumble.


Now that Gantz was elected again the interim duumiverate government is unchallenged. Unless a government is sworn in no new one will be sworn before November even if there is a fifth cycle.

There are two pending legal questions though:
- is the interim government fully in place, i.e., is the predesignated rotation date in place despite the fall of the government. It would seem the answer is yes...though to be frank there is very little legal material (local or comparative) to base it on.
- The SC published its ruling today that Bibi is in conflict of interest regarding appointing judges and the AG. In a section of a ruling, they did say the AG position is obligatory towards the government but he cannot enforce it. Come November the AG might announce Gantz has PM authorities but Bibi might refuse to accept it and try to continue to direct government agencies. I'm not sure what will happen if some ministries held by Likud refuse to comply with orders from Gantz and listen only to Bibi. Now that will be chaotic.

Wasn't the rotation agreement codified into the Basic Law, though? Short of a new government being formed before Nov. 17th, how does the law as currently promulgated not force Bibi to keep to the agreement & step aside then?


So is it sighs or tears??? Do we have 61?
Last batches returned to normal distribution so the changes are now unlikely. We have our seat allocation now let the games begin.

As I said the solution could come in the presidential election in June. I’ll be looking closely at that

Is there any chance Netenyahu is able to woo/bribe/threaten Sa'ar into returning to the fold or no?

I mean, it obviously worked last time on Gantz, so who knows how successful their fooling might be this time? Gun to my head, though, I think even Sa'ar would refuse such pressure at this point: he's been adamant about his refusal to join Bibi or the RZP, not least after having seen how Gantz lost a lot of support. Of course, he'll still undoubtedly be pressured, though, but it'll be up to him to refuse it.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2021, 07:25:55 PM »

At the very least, all of this must provide a sense of total & complete faith in the integrity of Israel's electoral process. After all, there just can't be a secret cabal somewhere that would willingly conspire to arrange for all of this bullsh*t.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2021, 01:33:13 AM »

What's it going to take to break the stalemate?

A 5th election.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2021, 02:51:37 PM »


It's not clear a 5th election just wouldn't end up with the same result. What breaks the logjam? Bibi resigning as Likud head? I don't think that's likely.

So long as 61 MKs continue to not be able to agree on one person, another election is always in the cards. Maybe the proposed "presidential option" is invoked, but we're still a bit of a ways off from that.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2021, 04:32:03 PM »

Who do you guys think Biden supported in the election?

Presumably Lapid, as the leader of the not-Bibi bloc.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2021, 02:22:51 PM »

New Joke recommends no one. Part of me thinks we deserve a Netanyahu government with Ra'am with that stupidity.

So Sa'ar pulled a Lieberman from last election? Yeesh!
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brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2021, 10:03:39 AM »

What an utterly miserable state of affairs.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2021, 05:52:34 PM »


She's not wrong. Nevertheless, she's also still f**king insane.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2021, 03:38:48 PM »

By built into the constitution, do you mean that Bennett and Lapid are recycling the Netanyahu/Gantz agreement of 2020? Will one of them get to be 'Alternate Prime Minister' with veto power over everything? Is their agreement only for 3 years, with 18-month terms for both, rather than 4 years and 2-year terms?

Not who you were responding to, but basically, yes & yes. What Bibi & Gantz codified into the Basic Law last year were binding general provisions for a rotation government, as opposed to provisions that applied to their own agreement only, & remain in force 'til a Knesset repeals them, so Bennett & Lapid would - like Bibi & Netanyahu before them - still be solely responsible for their own ministers. And it's being reported that the deal will be for 2 years, a swap, & then 2 more years.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2021, 08:10:15 PM »

Jpost reports that the parties are aiming for a majority vote on Thursday at the latest. Shaas is standing by Netanyahu versus a different Likudnik, so there isn't a majority for that even if Bibi could set his ego aside. Abbas is to vote in favor rather than abstain, which probably means a lot of (desperately needed) pork-barrel investment is coming to Arab communities.

EDIT: The timetable has been moved up to Tuesday.

Dare I say it's too soon, but:

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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2021, 01:30:08 PM »


Election time it is, then.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2021, 01:53:34 PM »

https://twitter.com/Gil_Hoffman/status/1401559973331603457?s=20

Netanyhu went full Trump today in front of Likud MKs. He continues to try and tie this to the GOP, despite then having no power to influence the situation.

Orbach also hasn't decided, but I suspect we are heading for 60 in favor, 57-59 oppose, and enough abstentions to pass.

He has apparently decided, but just hasn't publicly announced said decision yet.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,453
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #19 on: June 15, 2021, 10:52:31 PM »

How high is the chance the new govt breaks apart in the coming weeks or months and Netanyahu returns to power? I'm not that confident coalition of 8 parties from accross the spectrum can govern with a single vote majority. I would assume Bibi stands ready once that happens.

Not high at all, & that'll remain the case so long as Bibi remains the convictionless (in more ways than one lol) leader of Likud, as he's the best possible incentive for a coalition that's literally built upon a need to keep him out of power to stay together. In any event, though, they all have a lot to lose now from dissolving it & allowing yet another election to occur so soon: ​nearly everybody in the coalition either lost face &/or went back on campaign promises in order to join the coalition, so it's in their collective interests to tune down the disagreements & work through potential common ground. They're in a good position, but they can't afford to not improve their image before the next election, which a dissolution of the government anytime soon would preclude. In particular, Bennett can probably be trusted - especially on the budget, but really on anything because the collective power of everybody else in the coalition serves to temper his far-right views - because new changes to the Basic Law will mean that if he prevents one from passing, Lapid would get to take over & get another go at trying to pass the budget before potentially being the incumbent PM who takes Israel into the next election.
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