Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

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I'm back (for this thread)! Certainly an interesting election we're getting.

My gut feeling is that left wing splintering will allow Bibi to get a slight majority (akin to right wing splintering denying it to him in 2019 round 1). But a Sa'ar-YB-YA-Yamina government with outside support from Meretz is not out of the question.

As for my vote, I'm currently leaning Meretz. Huldai's party holds no appeal to me, I think I'd actually vote Yesh Atid over them.

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Labour to hold primaries but currently, no one bar Michaeli announced their running. not even for the list. another dead man walking party.

Isn't the thing about Labour that they have almost no voters left (even most of *their own members* support other parties now) but still significant assets?

I think the SDP of Japan is in a not totally dissimilar position.

they have no voters. party financing of 3-4 million, and assets worth around 150-200 million that can't be liquified so quickly anyhow but you can get credit with them.

the most reasonable thing to do is for them and Meretz to run together and afterward unify the parties (Meretz have some assets as well inheireted from Mapam). There really isn't anymore room left for both. But Labour has too much pride about being the founders and Meretz too many egos

I don't see Meretz agreeing to run with Labour after they entered the government- maybe if Michaeli leads them and they purge the Peretz faction (they have enough anti Peretz members- Bar Lev and Biran are two examples I can think of rn). They also need to purge that insufferable chairman, Hermoni.

Anyway I can see why Michaeli didn't want to go to Meretz- it's a party that's incredibly hostile to anyone from outside. They turned on Shaffir and Barak with the speed of light and there's a lot of hostility towards Yair Golan. They're indeed full of egos that wouldn't want to lose their precious 5th or 6th spot if it meant the country.

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Lmao Science Minister Yizhar Shai is joining Ya'alon in "joint leadership", being number 2. The fact that he's making this nobody who's slightly less of a nobody co leader is really telling. The pool of names has really dried after three elections. You see it in Huldai's list full of nobodies too

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Smotric is breaking away from Yamina (for now...this is the national religious politicians we're talking about). JH is merging back into Yamina (Peretz resigned). Either Smotric returns after he gets 3 spots in the top 10, or he runs with Jewish Power (and in that case, we can add them to the Bibi bloc tally).

This would be a gift for Netanyahu, I imagine.

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As expected, Shmuli and Barak not running for Labour leader. The road is paved for Merav Michaeli's ascension- I'd be surprised if she gets less than 90% of the vote. The only ones running against her are some casino businessman who Peretz apparently recruited to allow him to control the party, and some weirdo perennial candidate who forgot to vote for himself last time.

Gotta respect Michaeli. This woman clawed her way through a ton of resistance. She's likely to be the last Labour leader, though

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The news in the Jewish Home is great news for Bibi. The party of fascist religious nuts & nazis will definitely join his government.

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The news in the Jewish Home is great news for Bibi. The party of fascist religious nuts & nazis will definitely join his government.

Yes, though he should thank the Haredi for it. It's not Bibi they want it's the Haredi in a conservative alliance

Some part of me wants to see a government of Bibi-Haredim-Smotrich-Otzma supported from outside by Ra'am. Would be interesting to see how the still overwhelmingly pro secular public reacts to what this deeply conservative government does.

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Apparently some voter suppression in the Labour primary, trying to rig it against Michaeli. Doubt it works

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Merav won 77%-19%

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Whats Stav Shaffir doing these days?

Just vibin'
Probably not going to run. She's probably checking her name for Tel Aviv Mayor though.

(part for Likud)

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New poll:
Likud 29
Yesh Atid 16
New Hope 15
Yamina 14
Joint List 10
UTJ 8
Shas 8
YB 7
Meretz 5
KL 4
Labour 4
Zalicha 0 (2.8%)
ISRAELIS 0 (2.7%)
Smotrich 2.2%
Otzma 2.1%
Ale Yarok (?) 0.6%
Yatom 0.5%
Shelah 0.4%
JH 0.3%
Telem 0.3%
Gesher 0%

*If Smotrich unites with Jewish Home and the nazis he passes with 5, Likud loses 2, Bennet loses 2, Sa'ar loses 1
*If Huldai and Michaeli unite they get 7, YA loses 2, Meretz loses 1
*If Lapid and Huldai unite they get 18, YB loses 1 and Meretz loses 1
* 61% want a Haredi-less government, 22% want with

If this continues there's no reason for Michaeli to let Huldai be #1

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Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

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Avi Nissenkorn left the Israelis and decided to "take a break from politics". Pretty sure that:

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I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

The biggest names are fmr MK Omer Bar Lev, fmr MK Ram Shefa, fmr MK Nahman Shai and arguably Emily Moati and Gilad Kariv who are pretty big on leftist circles. My prediction is something like:
1. Michaeli
2. Bar Lev
3. Shefa
4. Moati (don't see a bigger woman than her running for the second spot in the top 4).

I hope Kariv can pass Shefa but that's just wishcasting.

Hnv- do you see the Israelis staying around at this point? I honestly don't see a point for Labour to merge with this list- Huldai will probably not stay around to be 2nd, and the rest of the list are even more nobodies than Labour's. I'd argue even Ya'alon recruited bigger names than Huldai. At least with Shelah it's just two people who can be placed in relatively low spots.

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I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

The biggest names are fmr MK Omer Bar Lev, fmr MK Ram Shefa, fmr MK Nahman Shai and arguably Emily Moati and Gilad Kariv who are pretty big on leftist circles. My prediction is something like:
1. Michaeli
2. Bar Lev
3. Shefa
4. Moati (don't see a bigger woman than her running for the second spot in the top 4).

I hope Kariv can pass Shefa but that's just wishcasting.

Hnv- do you see the Israelis staying around at this point? I honestly don't see a point for Labour to merge with this list- Huldai will probably not stay around to be 2nd, and the rest of the list are even more nobodies than Labour's. I'd argue even Ya'alon recruited bigger names than Huldai. At least with Shelah it's just two people who can be placed in relatively low spots.

my careful prediction is Lazimi will finish above Moati.

Hard to tell. I think Michaeli will him and Karin Nahun a spot just to push Eran Hermoni back and have another woman. I definitely think this is the end to vanity personal parties. Huldai did an IPO, the market didn't value his stock highly, he should have took labour instead of starting a new one

Pushing out Hermoni would be good. Idk why but he annoys me.
Also really hope Moati beats Lazimi.

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Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

yay, the former natural governing party might win 4% instead of 2%, THEY'RE BACK!

Labour is Isreali politics' best imitation of a zombie. Change my mind.

I love this. Thank you.

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Ya'alon dropped out! Hopefully Huldai, Shelah, Zalicha, Yatom and Gantz follow.

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LABOUR PRIMARY RESULTS:
1. Omer Bar Lev
2. Emily Moati
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Rayten (attorney and former children's star)
5. Ram Shefa
6. Ibtisam Mara'ana Menuhin
7. Nachman Shai
8. Naama Lazimi

I voted for places 1-3 and 6

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Dany Yatom's senior party dropped out. I guess they free up like, 3000 votes.

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Three parties already submitted their lists today- Yesh Atid, Yamina and Kahol Lavan. That means they're running alone and won't get into any joint list (no Sa'ar-Yamina union). I suspect as KL sinks further and further below the threshold they might drop out, but they'll still be on the ballot and burn some votes.

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

Lapid clearly tried to fix this, but it's still a very man-heavy list. #2 is Orly Barbivai, Yesh Atid MK and the first woman major general, and there are 3 women in the top 5 (Barbivai + MK Karin Elharar + Merav Cohen, Ben Ari is 9th), but these are the only 4 women in the top 15. 4 no name women crowd places 17-20- the good old trick of "we have equal representation!" but most women are in the periphery of realistic spots (famously employed by Yamina in round 3). The first non Jew is in the 26th spot. 2 gays and 2 Russian speakers in the top 15.

Yamina's list seems like a recruiting failure. The first four are alright- Bennet and Shaked, the Mayor of Sderot and Matan Kahane, a fairly visible MK. The rest are a mix of clowns, nobodies and Jewish Home refugees (for some 2 or 3 of the categories apply). A healthy dose of homophobia from the 5th place, some religious zionist education figure.

KL has Pnina Tamano Shata second, making her the highest ranking black woman in a party polling above the threshold ever to my knowledge, but it's a list of mostly center figures who stuck with Gantz and I don't see them passing.

In other news, Sa'ar got an imho great recruit in Ofer Berkovich, leader of the centrist Jerusalem Hitorerut Party which basically represents the "pluralist" anti-Haredi coalition there. Pretty major figure in Jerusalem who almost became Mayor, a young face, but I don't see a lot of fanfare rn. I wonder if Sa'ar will keep slipping further and further at this pace.

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Three parties already submitted their lists today- Yesh Atid, Yamina and Kahol Lavan. That means they're running alone and won't get into any joint list (no Sa'ar-Yamina union). I suspect as KL sinks further and further below the threshold they might drop out, but they'll still be on the ballot and burn some votes.

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

Lapid clearly tried to fix this, but it's still a very man-heavy list. #2 is Orly Barbivai, Yesh Atid MK and the first woman major general, and there are 3 women in the top 5 (Barbivai + MK Karin Elharar + Merav Cohen, Ben Ari is 9th), but these are the only 4 women in the top 15. 4 no name women crowd places 17-20- the good old trick of "we have equal representation!" but most women are in the periphery of realistic spots (famously employed by Yamina in round 3). The first non Jew is in the 26th spot. 2 gays and 2 Russian speakers in the top 15.

Yamina's list seems like a recruiting failure. The first four are alright- Bennet and Shaked, the Mayor of Sderot and Matan Kahane, a fairly visible MK. The rest are a mix of clowns, nobodies and Jewish Home refugees (for some 2 or 3 of the categories apply). A healthy dose of homophobia from the 5th place, some religious zionist education figure.

KL has Pnina Tamano Shata second, making her the highest ranking black woman in a party polling above the threshold ever to my knowledge, but it's a list of mostly center figures who stuck with Gantz and I don't see them passing.

In other news, Sa'ar got an imho great recruit in Ofer Berkovich, leader of the centrist Jerusalem Hitorerut Party which basically represents the "pluralist" anti-Haredi coalition there. Pretty major figure in Jerusalem who almost became Mayor, a young face, but I don't see a lot of fanfare rn. I wonder if Sa'ar will keep slipping further and further at this pace.

YA at least fielded a list with a decent amount of ministerial material. Yamina looks depleted from 4th down, Bennett just doesn't get that this isn't a presidential system no matter how much Bibi acts as if it does.

Ok catch for Saar, I don't think it will move voters from the right but it's the internal game against Lapid.

*I find it weird to call PTS a "black woman", well she is of course Ethiopian but we don't use this term in Hebrew and I wouldn't want to import it here

Oh yeah I should've said "Ethiopian". Quite different politically in Israel, but still notable.

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Smotrich and Otzma's Ben Gvir reached an agreement to run together. Ben Gvir placed third, the representative of rabidly homophobic party Noam 6th.

New Hope list:
1. Gideon Sa'ar
2. Yifat Shasha Biton
3. Ze'ev Elkin, former major Likud figure
4. Yoaz Hendel, trojan horse
5. Sharen Haskel, libertarian darling from Likud
6. Benny Begin, former MK and son of former PM Begin
7. Meir Yitzhak Halevi, Eilat Mayor
8. Zvi Hauser, trojan horse
9. Michal Shir, former MK and Sa'ar aide
10. Hila Shai Vazan, former KL MK

Fairly unimpressive list. A nobody from KL in the top 10? Who's in places 10-15 which are currently realistic?

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Fairly unimpressive list. A nobody from KL in the top 10? Who's in places 10-15 which are currently realistic?

11: Danny Dayan
12: Michel Buskila
13: Ofer Berkovich
14: Avi Ganon
15:Michal Diamant

Lolwut? Figures like Berkovich and Dayan at these spots? Weird. they bring a lot more to the table than Vazan, Shir or the two trojan horses.

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Bibi promised the 28th place on Likud's list for Smotrich's representative in exchange for uniting with the Jewish Home and Otzma-Noam. Benjamin Franz von Pappen Netanyahu.

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

She attacked her for specific actions and statements, not for some vague idea of "representing left wing positions". Specifically she attacked her for disrespecting the holocaust memorial siren. I don't know why this would be a left wing position (and which to me sounds insulting to the left).

This was a facebook comment I definitely didn't like and disagreed with, but it was infuriating to see that pattern of the mainstream media rummaging through the social media of a new Arab political figure to find anything that could doubt their loyalty. The first posts picked upon were just mainstream left positions lamenting the situation in Gaza but putting most of the blame on Hamas. The fact that this is what Ben Ari is focusing on is a bad indicator, especially considering she came from a party that was already a Netanyahu puppet.

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Increasingly likely that Huldai drops out. Some tiny party that ran in the past named "Israelis" registered yesterday, I suspect mostly to troll Huldai. The only response of his party was that they were not going to run alone anyway. As good as over for them- a power move from Michaeli.