Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[jaichind]

How did it come to this.  Given B&W will get wiped out in another election would they not do everything possible to compromise and avoid an election ?

[jaichind]

So which of the non-Likud non-JL parties might support a Gideon Sa'ar government to lock out Netanyahu post election ? YA ? YB ? Yamina?   I think he will need all of them unless Shas or UTJ break ranks.

[jaichind]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

Gesher is just Orly Levy. She's supposed to get some spot on Likud's list

Why would Likud do that?  The people that voted for her list last election would not vote Likud.  Would they not want her to run by herself and split the anti-Likud vote ?

[jaichind]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

[jaichind]

Looks like this time around there will be a lot more wasted anti-Likud votes than in 2020.  This can only be good news for Netanyahu

[jaichind]

So what will happen if both Ra'am and Meretz make it and the Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+Religious Zionist does not cross 60 ? Who in the opposition will Netanyahu try to rope in this time "for the good of the country" ?

[jaichind]

I assume polls close 10PM ?

[jaichind]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like this is in the bag for Bibi, really can't see Yamina supporting a YA-led government?

Is it not possible for Yamina to make demands on joining a Likud led government that leads to a deadlock and another election ?

[jaichind]

Did anyone post link to results ?  I could not find it.

[jaichind]

Is the count slower this year due to COVID-19 and the need for social distancing at counting centers ?

[jaichind]

Its is interesting how all the recent Likud splinters all end up eating into the anti-Likud vote versus the Likud vote.

[jaichind]

So if Ra'am is now going to be above the threshold is there any alternative to another election in the Summer ?

[jaichind]

Would not a more ideological consistent ruling bloc be if New Hope joins the Likud bloc? I get New Hope already said during the election they will not do so but post election everything should be up for grabs again.

[jaichind]

Likud set to gain one seat over JL (31 to 5)
Yamina set to gain one over New Hope (7 to 5)
with them Bibi has 61. Unelss Shas loses one to YA.


Brace yourself, in several hours it's either tears or sighs

Wow ... after all that Netanyahu might now win on surplus vote share agreements ?  Amazing.

[jaichind]

Probably not, but he'll have 28 days to convince Sa'ar and Bennet to join a Likud-Kahanist-Ra'am government.

Who does he even to rope in Ra'am ? Would not the pro-Netanyahu bloc + Yamina + New Hope enough for a majority ?

[jaichind]

How much latitude does Netanjahu have to try to pick off Yamina and New Hope MKs ? Meaning are there anti-defection laws that would bar Likud doing deals with individual MKs to break this ?

[jaichind]

How much of Bennett's calculations here is driven by his assumption that in the medium term a Netanyahu-less Likud will bleed Right wing votes and Yamina should be able to gain a good part of that loss despite short term blowback on being in alliance with Left/Arab forces ?