Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[S019]

Do we know how Ra'am leans, because it seems their support either way could be decisive.

[Hnv1]

Do we know how Ra'am leans, because it seems their support either way could be decisive.

The chairman was on the radio now saying he’ll negotiate with whoever. Bibi’s base is divided on this

[Oryxslayer]

Do we know how Ra'am leans, because it seems their support either way could be decisive.

The chairman was on the radio now saying he’ll negotiate with whoever. Bibi’s base is divided on this

An as noted previously, campaign talk is cheap. Its not Likud whose the danger, its their potential Block allies who would divest themselves of government if an Arab party backs it. The Ra'am option is mathematically hard to get to 61 even if Abbas is available.

[America Needs R'hllor]

When's the vote reporting guy waking up and giving us more results

[DC Al Fine]

Bit of a dumb question: If there's no obvious candidate for PM besides Bibi, and Bibi doesn't have a working majority, why couldn't he just form a minority cabinet like in the UK and cut deals with other parties on a case by case basis?

[Oryxslayer]

When's the vote reporting guy waking up and giving us more results

None have come in since the 15k drop a few hours ago...which is funny cause the elections commission said they projected  near 100% (discounting double envelopes) about 3 hours ago.

EDIT: right on que another 9K votes added to the system. Still have 500K to go till projected turnout.

[Oryxslayer]

Bit of a dumb question: If there's no obvious candidate for PM besides Bibi, and Bibi doesn't have a working majority, why couldn't he just form a minority cabinet like in the UK and cut deals with other parties on a case by case basis?

Only really works if the parties are willing to cut deals. Which in the most simple fashion requires confidence and support like the DUP offered to the Tories, or the Scottish Greens to SNP. When half the anti-Likud blocks main problem with working with Likud is Netanyahu personally, that's impossible unless you bend over backwards ideologically for the other half.

[Coldstream]

Any ideas why Raam did so well?p relative to the joint list? They got almost as many votes despite theoretically starting as 1/4 of them. Is it Arab voters who want a party that will play more of a role in national politics?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So, bets that we're going to be doing this crap all over again in, like, August?

[Estrella]

Reuven Rivlin's term ends this summer, right?

That's either a potential stumbling block or the ultimate bribe for a power-hungry backbencher.

[Mike88]

When's the vote reporting guy waking up and giving us more results

I thought this was a joke, but it seems it is a real thing: xD

https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1374719616967147520

[omar04]

Looks like final results will be in Friday morning.

[Hnv1]

From the current results, the biggest vote spoilers under the threshold are: Zalica's Economic Party with 0.78%, and some bizarre anti-vax party with 0.4%. The rest are all under 0.05%

Zalicha thought he'll cross the 1% and get some state funding. well, screw him.

[Hnv1]

I was a precinct secretary at an impoverished mixed neighborhood in Haifa. around 60% Arabs. 30% Russian. 9% Sephardi. 1% others. Overall turnout was down 7%. (they increased one ballot box due to Covid).

2021 results (change in brackets where possible):
JL - 33.7%
Likud - 17.98% (-0.2%)
YB - 17.36% (-4.42%)
YA - 9.7%
Meretz - 7.66%
Saar - 3.14%
Labour 3%
B&W - 2.8%
Ra'am - 0.75%
Yamina - 1.16% (+0.17%)
Shas - 0.62% (-0.49%)
Zalicha - 1.03%
Smotric - 0.28%
Anti-vax - 0.48%
UTJ - 0.21% (-0.31%)
others - 0.14%

Results in 2020:
JL - 37.86%
YB - 21.78%
Likud - 18.17%
Grand B&W -  15.84%
Labour-Gesher-Meretz - 3.26%
Yamina - 0.99%
Shas - 1.11%
UTJ - 0.52%
Others - 0.47%

Arab turnout was down. Russian as well (though it's mainly old people and I assume at least 20 died of Covid meanwhile). Meretz alone probably tripled its vote share. The Russian YA is actually a thing. Ra'am was simply nonexistent among Arabs here.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Can somebody post this clickable map with results which ynet usually have on their website?


EDIT: Nevermind, got it:

https://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/ElectionMap2021/?externalurl=true

[Storr]

Even if Yamina joins Bibi, that doesn't give him a majority. It looks like Ra'am will be kingmakers.

According to the Times of Israel with 87% of votes counted:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/outcome-still-up-in-air-officials-to-start-count-of-450000-absentee-ballots/

pro-Netanyahu bloc: 52 seats

   Likud: 30
   Shas: 9
   United Torah Judaism: 7
   Religious Zionism: 6

anti-Netanyahu bloc: 56 seats

   Yesh Atid: 17
   Blue and White: 8
   Labor: 7
   Yisrael Beytenu: 7
   Joint List: 6
   New Hope: 6
   Meretz: 5

non committed parties (as of right now, anyway): 12

   Yamina: 7
   Ra'am: 5

[jaichind]

Would not a more ideological consistent ruling bloc be if New Hope joins the Likud bloc? I get New Hope already said during the election they will not do so but post election everything should be up for grabs again.

[jaymichaud]

Even if Yamina joins Bibi, that doesn't give him a majority. It looks like Ra'am will be kingmakers.

According to the Times of Israel with 87% of votes counted:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/outcome-still-up-in-air-officials-to-start-count-of-450000-absentee-ballots/
pro-Netanyahu bloc: 52 seats

   Likud: 30
   Shas: 9
   United Torah Judaism: 7
   Religious Zionism: 6



anti-Netanyahu bloc: 56 seats

   Yesh Atid: 17
   Blue and White: 8
   Labor: 7
   Yisrael Beytenu: 7
   Joint List: 6
   New Hope: 6
   Meretz: 5

non committed parties (as of right now, anyway): 12

   Yamina: 7
   Ra'am: 5

No government for him then-

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/raam-official-says-party-does-not-want-to-partner-with-racists-on-right/

[Oryxslayer]

Would not a more ideological consistent ruling bloc be if New Hope joins the Likud bloc? I get New Hope already said during the election they will not do so but post election everything should be up for grabs again.

Sa'ar literally tried to primary Netanyahu. For New Hope to join Likud in govt Bibi must leave, or New Hope Mks would need to defect on their own. But the Ra'am option, which is touted and the likeliest one, is probably impossible as well. Everyone rushed ahead of themselves based on campaign rhetoric when they forgot the religious Zionists have no problem leaving a govt they have stated problems with, as Yamina did last year.

[Angel of Death]

A fifth election is the most likely outcome by far, but the biggest question is if, in the mean time, there will be 61 votes to pass a law disqualifying anyone under indictment from being Prime Minister.

[Oryxslayer]

A few thousand more votes were added just now, continuing the trend of a trickle of results across the hours. I only bring this up because Meretz is perpetually close from taking a seat from Ra'am based on the current projections.

[KaiserDave]

Things don't look so terrible! Hopefully we can finally do away with Netanyahu is his gang of criminals!

[brucejoel99]

A fifth election is the most likely outcome by far, but the biggest question is if, in the mean time, there will be 61 votes to pass a law disqualifying anyone under indictment from being Prime Minister.

Well, there now appear to be 61 votes from politicians whose constituencies hate Bibi, so hopefully. God only knows that there's really no other way for this whole crisis to be resolved unless he's finally out.

[Vosem]

Would that even be enough to change what's going on? Bibi could always offer some obvious stand-in for himself as a candidate for Prime Minister. (Or just keep running and promise to change the law to re-qualify himself if he wins, since arguably the point of the whole 2019-present political crisis is the immunity law, which Bibi wouldn't want if he weren't Prime Minister.)

The formation of New Hope seemed to offer a, well, new hope to end the crisis by convincing pro-Bibi voters over to the anti-Bibi side, but its total flameout suggests that was never going to happen. If persuasion over the course of repeated elections doesn't work, then the crisis keeps going until Likud chooses, voluntarily, to get rid of Bibi and come up with a different candidate who can convince the Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope people to rejoin their coalition. That's probably not possible unless/until Bibi actually goes to jail.

(Kind of looking forward to Gantz taking over in November at this point.)

[AndyHogan14]

Would that even be enough to change what's going on? Bibi could always offer some obvious stand-in for himself as a candidate for Prime Minister. (Or just keep running and promise to change the law to re-qualify himself if he wins, since arguably the point of the whole 2019-present political crisis is the immunity law, which Bibi wouldn't want if he weren't Prime Minister.)

The formation of New Hope seemed to offer a, well, new hope to end the crisis by convincing pro-Bibi voters over to the anti-Bibi side, but its total flameout suggests that was never going to happen. If persuasion over the course of repeated elections doesn't work, then the crisis keeps going until Likud chooses, voluntarily, to get rid of Bibi and come up with a different candidate who can convince the Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope people to rejoin their coalition. That's probably not possible unless/until Bibi actually goes to jail.

(Kind of looking forward to Gantz taking over in November at this point.)

So, if there isn't a new government in place by November, will Gantz become caretaker Prime Minister under the previous rotation agreement? If so, that's both fantastic and hilarious!