Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[America Needs R'hllor]

61 for Netanyahu in channel 12- Likud 31, Yesh Atid 18, Shas 9, JL 9, Yamina 8, KL 7 (lol), Labour 7, Kahanists 7, YB 6, UTJ 6, New Hope 6, Meretz 6. Everyone passes easily

[jaymichaud]

Channel 11-
Likud 31
Yesh Atid 18
Shas 9
Joint List 8
UTJ 7
Lieberman 7
Labor 7
B&W 7
Yamina 7
RZ 7
Meretz 6
New Hope 6
Ra’am 0


So when do you think Elections #5 will happen?

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Channel 13:
Likud 33
Yesh Atid 16
Shas 8
UTJ 7
Yamina 7
New Hope 5
RZ 6
Lieberman 8
Labor 7
B&W 8
Meretz 7
Joint List 8
Ra’am 0

Bibi bloc at 61

[jaymichaud]

I thought you guys said the results were shocking?

[randomusername]

Channel 13:
Likud 33
Yesh Atid 16
Shas 8
UTJ 7
Yamina 7
New Hope 5
RZ 6
Lieberman 8
Labor 7
B&W 8
Meretz 7
Joint List 8
Ra’am 0

Bibi bloc at 61

Wonder if Gantz is still happy joining hands with Bibi /s

[danny]

I thought you guys said the results were shocking?

The TV people always call the results shocking regardless of what they are, you just have to learn to ignore the rumours and wait for real numbers.

[danny]

Wonder if Gantz is still happy joining hands with Bibi /s

This would actually be shockingly good, much better than he got in any poll.

[Mike88]

I thought you guys said the results were shocking?

Einstein never said this, of course, but it sums up really well this election:
"The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over and expect different results."

[America Needs R'hllor]

I think Labour at 7 despite the huge and clearly very successful gevalt campaign from Meretz and KL squeezing them out from both sides... is like, amazing. It shows the powerful personal pull Merav has

If Meretz\KL weren't competing or didn't do any gevalt, I think Labour would be the election surprise and get easily over 10 and probably over 12 seats. With Meretz they got 13-14 seats in the current exits, and KL definitely has at least 2-3 seats of old school labourites and other relative moderates who wouldn't go for Yesh Atid. If both KL and Meretz weren't competing at all I could even see 14-15.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Sa’ar went from being the alternative to Netanyahu to possibly leading the smallest party in the Knesset. Seems like the big loser of the election. Wasn’t there talk of New Hope MPs gravitating towards Likud again if the result was bad?

[randomusername]

Wonder if Gantz is still happy joining hands with Bibi /s

This would actually be shockingly good, much better than he got in any poll.

I dunno. Looking at Wikipedia, they have a poll where B&W would get 7 seats doesn't seem like a big reach.

[Crumpets]

I thought you guys said the results were shocking?

Einstein never said this, of course, but it sums up really well this election:
"The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over and expect different results."

Even if he didn't say it, he definitely did say something to the effect of "I do not want to be the President of Israel," which is equally appropriate.

[jaymichaud]

Sa’ar went from being the alternative to Netanyahu to possibly leading the smallest party in the Knesset. Seems like the big loser of the election. Wasn’t there talk of New Hope MPs gravitating towards Likud again if the result was bad?

I'd argue Bennett is too. He went from polling at like 22 seats to maybe winning 7 in what? 3 months?

[Oryxslayer]

Sa’ar went from being the alternative to Netanyahu to possibly leading the smallest party in the Knesset. Seems like the big loser of the election. Wasn’t there talk of New Hope MPs gravitating towards Likud again if the result was bad?

Sa'ar definitely fell off during the campaign. If Bibi+Yamina keeps 61 then some former Likudites may come crawling back.

However, these exit polls feel like there is a lot of uncertainty around the results - and I'm not saying that cause Bibi+Yamina have 61. A lot of parties results appear to differ from the polls so there could be a fluctuations in all directions when votes come in. I'm personally interested how far the polls put Ra'am below the threshold.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Sa’ar went from being the alternative to Netanyahu to possibly leading the smallest party in the Knesset. Seems like the big loser of the election. Wasn’t there talk of New Hope MPs gravitating towards Likud again if the result was bad?

Sa'ar definitely fell off during the campaign. If Bibi+Yamina keeps 61 then some former Likudites may come crawling back.

However, these exit polls feel like there is a lot of uncertainty around the results - and I'm not saying that cause Bibi+Yamina have 61. A lot of parties results appear to differ from the polls so there could be a fluctuations in all directions when votes come in. I'm personally interested how far the polls put Ra'am below the threshold.

According to the Channel 12 dude: quite far. No chance of them passing

[Oryxslayer]

Sa’ar went from being the alternative to Netanyahu to possibly leading the smallest party in the Knesset. Seems like the big loser of the election. Wasn’t there talk of New Hope MPs gravitating towards Likud again if the result was bad?

Sa'ar definitely fell off during the campaign. If Bibi+Yamina keeps 61 then some former Likudites may come crawling back.

However, these exit polls feel like there is a lot of uncertainty around the results - and I'm not saying that cause Bibi+Yamina have 61. A lot of parties results appear to differ from the polls so there could be a fluctuations in all directions when votes come in. I'm personally interested how far the polls put Ra'am below the threshold.

According to the Channel 12 dude: quite far. No chance of them passing

So then part of the results may be because Ra'am -> JL, JL -> Lab/Meretz....or maybe Bibi's Arab "campaign" worked. We will have to see when results come in, and if I recall from last time, the Arab towns cam in last because of extra security concerns.

[Double Carpet]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like this is in the bag for Bibi, really can't see Yamina supporting a YA-led government?

[jaichind]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like this is in the bag for Bibi, really can't see Yamina supporting a YA-led government?

Is it not possible for Yamina to make demands on joining a Likud led government that leads to a deadlock and another election ?

[Oryxslayer]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like this is in the bag for Bibi, really can't see Yamina supporting a YA-led government?

Well, first the math would have to be there, and Yamina right now would go with Likud cause the math favors that direction. If the math favors such a government than I'm sure they would find some way to compromise, or some others would join with Likud to form another "emergency" govt.

[jaichind]

Did anyone post link to results ?  I could not find it.

[Oryxslayer]

Did anyone post link to results ?  I could not find it.

They will appear here with time: https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

Ynet has a election map, but since there is no unified opposition, the map will probably be very Likud Blue, even with Israel's factionalism. Most useful for knowing where the results reporting are from, unless you want to download the excel file from the main site like me. http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/ElectionMap2021/

[Vosem]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like this is in the bag for Bibi, really can't see Yamina supporting a YA-led government?

If Bibi or Yamina or one of the other parties does a tiny bit worse than they're doing now, there may just be no majority for anyone. (Unless Bibi can convince some renegade MK to flip, which is possible.) It does look like Bibi has an advantage over 2019/2019/2020 in that it's profoundly non-obvious who the alternative to him is. Sa'ar failed to establish himself as the leader of the opposite bloc.

[danny]

Did anyone post link to results ?  I could not find it.

This is where they will be, but nothing is in yet:

https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

[Logical]

lol Sa'ar

[danny]

I dunno. Looking at Wikipedia, they have a poll where B&W would get 7 seats doesn't seem like a big reach.

It might a little better than their best poll, but there was a time when they were getting 4 or not passing at all. Basically the opposite of Saar who got slightly less than his worst late polls, but much less than where he was a couple of months ago.