Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #800 on: May 13, 2021, 09:25:47 PM »

Indeed, Biden did his part. Is it the first time Bibi uses the *right of Israel to defend itself* within the *escalation of the conflict* to his advantage?

I hope nobody is surprised to discover that Bibi is the smartest beast in that pack of hyenas. Otherwise wake up, folks. Don't pretend Israel is a democracy and you are discussing coalition formation in Belgium or the Netherlands

Israel would be a democracy if the non-Bibi politicians there were capable of making decisions. It's not Belgium or the Netherlands, but it's not Hungary or Turkey either.
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Velasco
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« Reply #801 on: May 13, 2021, 10:05:32 PM »
« Edited: May 13, 2021, 10:15:12 PM by Velasco »

What difference does it make?

 Bennett, Sa'ar snd Lieberman are brutal and racist; they would implement brutal and racist policies. Lapid and Gantz are slightly more moderate on the surface, but not different in essence. Labour and Meretz are insignificant and their opinion wouldn't be taken into account, in case their leaders protest for some abuse. I mean, a government of the anti-Bibi block would be equally right-wing and implement exactly the same policies, especially on the issues that define the democratic or undemocratic character of the state. In other words, the only difference between right-wing government A and right-wing government B is the penal fate of Bibi. It's quite a feat for a politician to become the center of everything for decades. In that respect Bibi is admirable (don't take me wrong, I think he is evil). But regardless how important Bibi is for Israel,  he is not the root cause. The causes of the conflict between Israel and democracy are structural.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #802 on: May 13, 2021, 10:22:47 PM »

I don't think anyone is under the illusion that the anti-Netanyahu bloc would be meaningfully dovish on security or the peace process. It's just a vehicle to restore Israeli democratic and anti-corruption norms by jailing Bibi. That's better than the alternative.
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Velasco
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« Reply #803 on: May 13, 2021, 11:38:54 PM »

I don't think anyone is under the illusion that the anti-Netanyahu bloc would be meaningfully dovish on security or the peace process. It's just a vehicle to restore Israeli democratic and anti-corruption norms by jailing Bibi. That's better than the alternative.

The cleavage between "hawks" and "doves" is long gone and there is nothing resembling a "peace process". You are missing my point, because the structural problems I'm referring to concern the essence of democracy, issues bigger than security or anti-corruption policies
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #804 on: May 14, 2021, 12:09:31 AM »

What difference does it make?

 Bennett, Sa'ar snd Lieberman are brutal and racist; they would implement brutal and racist policies. Lapid and Gantz are slightly more moderate on the surface, but not different in essence. Labour and Meretz are insignificant and their opinion wouldn't be taken into account, in case their leaders protest for some abuse. I mean, a government of the anti-Bibi block would be equally right-wing and implement exactly the same policies, especially on the issues that define the democratic or undemocratic character of the state. In other words, the only difference between right-wing government A and right-wing government B is the penal fate of Bibi. It's quite a feat for a politician to become the center of everything for decades. In that respect Bibi is admirable (don't take me wrong, I think he is evil). But regardless how important Bibi is for Israel,  he is not the root cause. The causes of the conflict between Israel and democracy are structural.

This post is both facetious and inflammatory, especially since you know the difference but willfully ignore it. I understand your anger, I'm currently depressed via the whiplash of this situation, but that isn't an excuse. What if I decided to walk into the Spanish Politics thread, decided to ignore all the nuance from past research, and say there is no difference between the CUP, Pudigmont, and ERC?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #805 on: May 14, 2021, 02:47:44 AM »


More accurate: Shaked finished him and stabbed him in the back. Now Bibi moves to desperately try and annul the rotation.

Bennett is done politically. He will carry on for a decade or two but he will never ever be PM
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Velasco
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« Reply #806 on: May 14, 2021, 06:55:22 PM »

What difference does it make?

 Bennett, Sa'ar snd Lieberman are brutal and racist; they would implement brutal and racist policies. Lapid and Gantz are slightly more moderate on the surface, but not different in essence. Labour and Meretz are insignificant and their opinion wouldn't be taken into account, in case their leaders protest for some abuse. I mean, a government of the anti-Bibi block would be equally right-wing and implement exactly the same policies, especially on the issues that define the democratic or undemocratic character of the state. In other words, the only difference between right-wing government A and right-wing government B is the penal fate of Bibi. It's quite a feat for a politician to become the center of everything for decades. In that respect Bibi is admirable (don't take me wrong, I think he is evil). But regardless how important Bibi is for Israel,  he is not the root cause. The causes of the conflict between Israel and democracy are structural.

This post is both facetious and inflammatory, especially since you know the difference but willfully ignore it. I understand your anger, I'm currently depressed via the whiplash of this situation, but that isn't an excuse. What if I decided to walk into the Spanish Politics thread, decided to ignore all the nuance from past research, and say there is no difference between the CUP, Pudigmont, and ERC?

It's a pity,  but I respect your decision.

Regarding Israel and democracy,  I just read this article in the WaPo. I recommend you to read the full text before claiming bad faith or facetiousness

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/israel-has-chosen-a-two-tiered-society-violence-is-the-inevitable-result/2021/05/14/3ab35f2e-b424-11eb-a980-a60af976ed44_story.html?s=09

Quote
 
 It is a commonly accepted falsehood that Israel is a “Jewish and democratic” state. In fact, it is neither: It is a binational, inherently undemocratic entity governed through an apartheid regime. The fragmentation of Palestinians may serve to obfuscate the truth, but how can a reality of demographic parity — some 7 million Jews, some 7 million Palestinians — be considered only “Jewish”? And when most of those Palestinians are kept disenfranchised, how can it be considered “democratic”?

It's understandable thst you are depressed with this situation, but don't blame me for saying all this violence is structural
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #807 on: May 14, 2021, 09:00:54 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2021, 09:18:27 PM by Oryxslayer »

What difference does it make?

 Bennett, Sa'ar snd Lieberman are brutal and racist; they would implement brutal and racist policies. Lapid and Gantz are slightly more moderate on the surface, but not different in essence. Labour and Meretz are insignificant and their opinion wouldn't be taken into account, in case their leaders protest for some abuse. I mean, a government of the anti-Bibi block would be equally right-wing and implement exactly the same policies, especially on the issues that define the democratic or undemocratic character of the state. In other words, the only difference between right-wing government A and right-wing government B is the penal fate of Bibi. It's quite a feat for a politician to become the center of everything for decades. In that respect Bibi is admirable (don't take me wrong, I think he is evil). But regardless how important Bibi is for Israel,  he is not the root cause. The causes of the conflict between Israel and democracy are structural.

This post is both facetious and inflammatory, especially since you know the difference but willfully ignore it. I understand your anger, I'm currently depressed via the whiplash of this situation, but that isn't an excuse. What if I decided to walk into the Spanish Politics thread, decided to ignore all the nuance from past research, and say there is no difference between the CUP, Pudigmont, and ERC?

It's a pity,  but I respect your decision.

Regarding Israel and democracy,  I just read this article in the WaPo. I recommend you to read the full text before claiming bad faith or facetiousness

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/israel-has-chosen-a-two-tiered-society-violence-is-the-inevitable-result/2021/05/14/3ab35f2e-b424-11eb-a980-a60af976ed44_story.html?s=09

Quote
 
 It is a commonly accepted falsehood that Israel is a “Jewish and democratic” state. In fact, it is neither: It is a binational, inherently undemocratic entity governed through an apartheid regime. The fragmentation of Palestinians may serve to obfuscate the truth, but how can a reality of demographic parity — some 7 million Jews, some 7 million Palestinians — be considered only “Jewish”? And when most of those Palestinians are kept disenfranchised, how can it be considered “democratic”?

It's understandable thst you are depressed with this situation, but don't blame me for saying all this violence is structural

I'm not going to argue because at the end of the day I agree with you on most things. The point of Olso was to create a federal state to represent the occupied Palestinians, but its complete legal servitude to Jerusalem while at the same time being treated as a International rather than federal actor has allowed the settlers to divide and conquer. It, like many things in the post-Oslo order, were built or facilitated a transition to a order that satisfied all political and national actors in the Middle East and Abroad...except all individuals who identify as Palestinians whose blood sustains the order (except those few with Israeli citizenship). The fact the Iron Dome is a thing perfectly exemplifies this system: Israel doesn't want the guerilla war or true geocide that would be needed to clean the Gaza ghetto of Hamas, and Hamas lacks the resources of the will to actively war and pursue its ideals. So the ghetto gang fires rockets and causes destruction to legitimize its cause every now and again, Bibi fights back to legitimize his security platform, and Gazan blood is sacrificed for political capital.

The issue that I, and apparently a few others have, is the argument that removing Bibi would be no change. Ignoring the fact that this harkens to "no difference between Democrats and Republicans arguments" which are never made in good faith and seek to push an agenda, this statement is an insult to the 50% of Israeli society that cast ballots with the express goal of change. There's a good chance someone in this group would slap you in the face if you said that to them.

I agree drastic change is needed, in my personal opinion something like Northern Ireland that allows for two nations to exist in one state, but it is a process that needs to happen first to get there. You got to sell change as the least dangerous outcome, and that takes time, political marketing, and a reconfiguration of priorities. If one tried to implement a new superstructure tomorrow from nothing then there is a good change the Settler Gangs would march on the Knesset a la the Peid Noirs and the French 4th Republic, and the instantaneous nature of change could result in others aligning in support of such an action, instead of coming down uniformly against it.

On Sunday it looked like the arsonist who inflamed this latest crisis at the behest of Kahanist gangs would be removed from power. Allowed time to settle, the decapitation of Likud would likely have prompted a third Israel political realignment, given the party lacked an heir and spent all capital to protect its then-doomed leader. There was at worst a 50-50 chance that these developments would have resulted in better long term prospects than the present Likud-Oslo order, and it is 100% better than letting Bibi go to war and refresh his political capital.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #808 on: May 16, 2021, 03:44:29 AM »

Likud will not support anyone officially for president. Odd move
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #809 on: May 16, 2021, 05:26:16 AM »

Operation Keep Bibi In Power:
Sides: Hamas and Likud vs the rest of Israel
Results: decisive success
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« Reply #810 on: May 16, 2021, 01:50:23 PM »

It's true that the person of Netanyahu has almost completely sucked the air out of Israeli politics, but why are people assuming that once he leaves the scene, things will turn more progressive, especially with respect to the Palestinians? If anything, the pro- vs anti-Netanyahu dividing line has actually been hindering a clear and only increasing right-wing sentiment amongst Israeli Jews being enacted on.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #811 on: May 16, 2021, 02:12:14 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2021, 12:11:35 AM by Oryxslayer »

It's true that the person of Netanyahu has almost completely sucked the air out of Israeli politics, but why are people assuming that once he leaves the scene, things will turn more progressive, especially with respect to the Palestinians? If anything, the pro- vs anti-Netanyahu dividing line has actually been hindering a clear and only increasing right-wing sentiment amongst Israeli Jews being enacted on.

Israeli politics operates under a dominant-party system mentality, and the political system tends to bend to the wishes of the dominant actor. Ending a dominant parties reign in these systems across the globe prompts a scramble for power and political realignment to assume the party's mantle. Once a party has solidified its control it can electorally perpetuate itself through institutional experience, soft power, and factional access. There were a lot of potential paths that could have benefiting the regional situation long term. Bibi's dying fumble that legitimized Arab-targeted political campaigns and Arab party government participation appeared to finally incorporate those parties into the network of factional horse-trading and pork-barrel investment commonplace to multiparty politics. Rolling the proverbial dice is better than more of the same, given that Bibi has no intention of ending the violence - not through peace, not through negotiation, not though genocide - because conflict and bloodshed legitimizes Likud's control.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #812 on: May 19, 2021, 03:40:22 AM »



Interesting study. Voters of all (Jewish) parties were sampled on two scales: where do they position themselves left (0) to right (10), and love for Bibi with hate (0) and total love (10). The red is distribution of the first, the blueish of the second.

Likud obviously really love Bibi, but so do Shas, who are also the most right-wing by identification.
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« Reply #813 on: May 19, 2021, 09:27:39 AM »

Operation Keep Bibi In Power:
Sides: Hamas and Likud vs the rest of Israel
Results: decisive success
What would the effect of an official US rebuke (slightly possible) have on the government?
If "the rest of Israel" wanted to, they could force a ceasefire - the non-Bibi entire political class comes off quite poorly here.
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Math
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« Reply #814 on: May 19, 2021, 03:31:20 PM »



Interesting study. Voters of all (Jewish) parties were sampled on two scales: where do they position themselves left (0) to right (10), and love for Bibi with hate (0) and total love (10). The red is distribution of the first, the blueish of the second.

Likud obviously really love Bibi, but so do Shas, who are also the most right-wing by identification.

Super fascinating! Where does the graph come from?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #815 on: May 20, 2021, 01:18:17 AM »



Interesting study. Voters of all (Jewish) parties were sampled on two scales: where do they position themselves left (0) to right (10), and love for Bibi with hate (0) and total love (10). The red is distribution of the first, the blueish of the second.

Likud obviously really love Bibi, but so do Shas, who are also the most right-wing by identification.

Super fascinating! Where does the graph come from?
An Israeli researcher named Noam Gidron I believe


The presidential elections deadline is over, only 2 contenders with Herzog and Miriam Peretz (some bereaved annoying mother). Herzog is expected to win
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Hnv1
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« Reply #816 on: May 20, 2021, 04:00:17 AM »

Presidential elections June 2nd:
Isaac "Boojie" Herzog - former leader of the Labour Party (and the Zionist Union RIP), former Minister, former MK, current chairman of the Jewish Agency, and son of former president Haim (Vivian) Herzog.
Miriam Peretz - bereaved mother (two sons KIA), former school headmaster, and a public figure for "unity within". Settler

Herzog got 27 signatures from all Jewish parties in the Knesset. Apparent front runner and popular among his former colleagues. Peretz got exactly 10 signatures, 3 from Likud, 1 B&W, 2 Shas, 2 Yamina, 3 Smotric. The MKs don't really fancy her but she has public support for her apparent lack of political agenda.

Secret ballots in the house. If one of them gets a majority of 61 in the first round he wins (which is likely as there are only two contenders this time). Otherwise, this goes to a second round where the winner needs a simple majority. Repeated votes in case of a tie until we have a winner.
The winner then takes an oath followed by calls of "hail to the president" by members of the house (though these calls are growing faint every new cycle...)

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jaymichaud
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« Reply #817 on: May 20, 2021, 03:50:01 PM »

Miriam Peretz - bereaved mother (two sons KIA), former school headmaster, and a public figure for "unity within". Settler

Bit of a weird choice, no? Never been an MK, no political experience?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #818 on: May 21, 2021, 02:04:55 AM »

Miriam Peretz - bereaved mother (two sons KIA), former school headmaster, and a public figure for "unity within". Settler

Bit of a weird choice, no? Never been an MK, no political experience?
Bereaved mother, looking for perpetual fake unity? It's the stuff the public loves regardless of her (lack of) qualifications for the job.
I highly doubt she'll win this, if she had any sense she'll drop out before embarrassing herself at the vote like others did. She wouldn't get one vote like Dan Shechtman, but I doubt she'll get more than 25.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #819 on: May 21, 2021, 06:10:54 PM »

So, it's more likely than not Bibi stays in power?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #820 on: May 25, 2021, 04:42:25 AM »

Lapid is signing coalition agreements with his bloc. I'm not sure what he hopes to accomplish by this, perhaps pressure Bennett with a take it or leave it offer. still wouldn't square the circle. Or perhaps an election campaign for a future government.

Regardless, there might be an attempt to pass a bill dissolving the house before Lapid's mandate is over preventing any chance Bibi will get it again. Slim chances as dissolving the Knesset before would require 61 supporters.
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« Reply #821 on: May 28, 2021, 01:43:55 PM »

So uh, a few updates.
1. According to channel 12's Amit Segal (been wrong in service of cynical politicians before), Bennet decided on a unity government with Lapid, and the swearing in is planned in 10 days. The current hurdle is Shaked, who's still not sure. Announcement expected Saturday night or Sunday. I'm assuming another hurdle is Ra'am, because they haven't been talked about.
2. Lapid has been signing agreements with other parties already. First was Yisrael Beiteinu, who got a hold on the economy with the Finance Ministry and the Budget Committee. Next was Meretz, who got a nice prize with Health for Horovitz, Environmental Protection for Zandberg, Regional Cooperation for Isawi Farij, and a sub-committee chairmanship in the Foreign and Defense Affairs Committee for Yair Golan. Today we got an agreement with Labor, who managed to squeeze out quite a lot too- Transportation (probably for Michaeli), Internal Security (probably for Bar Lev), and Diaspora (I assume for Gilad Kariv), along with the Labor and Welfare Committee Chairwomanship (woman because I'm assuming it's going to Emily Moati). They also got 2 seats on the cabinet (Michaeli and Bar Lev) and a very critical seat in the judge selection committee for Michaeli, who'll be the government's sole representative (other than the Justice Minister) there. Lapid did promise the right a veto on SC judge selection by choosing the two Knesset representatives on the committee to be right-wingers (who'll be able to block with Sa'ar anyone they don't want for the SC).

So we'll see what's going to happen, but it might very well be that the change government is back on the menu.
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« Reply #822 on: May 28, 2021, 02:53:05 PM »

So uh, a few updates.
1. According to channel 12's Amit Segal (been wrong in service of cynical politicians before), Bennet decided on a unity government with Lapid, and the swearing in is planned in 10 days. The current hurdle is Shaked, who's still not sure. Announcement expected Saturday night or Sunday. I'm assuming another hurdle is Ra'am, because they haven't been talked about.
2. Lapid has been signing agreements with other parties already. First was Yisrael Beiteinu, who got a hold on the economy with the Finance Ministry and the Budget Committee. Next was Meretz, who got a nice prize with Health for Horovitz, Environmental Protection for Zandberg, Regional Cooperation for Isawi Farij, and a sub-committee chairmanship in the Foreign and Defense Affairs Committee for Yair Golan. Today we got an agreement with Labor, who managed to squeeze out quite a lot too- Transportation (probably for Michaeli), Internal Security (probably for Bar Lev), and Diaspora (I assume for Gilad Kariv), along with the Labor and Welfare Committee Chairwomanship (woman because I'm assuming it's going to Emily Moati). They also got 2 seats on the cabinet (Michaeli and Bar Lev) and a very critical seat in the judge selection committee for Michaeli, who'll be the government's sole representative (other than the Justice Minister) there. Lapid did promise the right a veto on SC judge selection by choosing the two Knesset representatives on the committee to be right-wingers (who'll be able to block with Sa'ar anyone they don't want for the SC).

So we'll see what's going to happen, but it might very well be that the change government is back on the menu.

Bennet has apparently agreed to a government. Hard to not be pessimistic but brace yourselves
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #823 on: May 28, 2021, 02:57:59 PM »

So uh, a few updates.
1. According to channel 12's Amit Segal (been wrong in service of cynical politicians before), Bennet decided on a unity government with Lapid, and the swearing in is planned in 10 days. The current hurdle is Shaked, who's still not sure. Announcement expected Saturday night or Sunday. I'm assuming another hurdle is Ra'am, because they haven't been talked about.
2. Lapid has been signing agreements with other parties already. First was Yisrael Beiteinu, who got a hold on the economy with the Finance Ministry and the Budget Committee. Next was Meretz, who got a nice prize with Health for Horovitz, Environmental Protection for Zandberg, Regional Cooperation for Isawi Farij, and a sub-committee chairmanship in the Foreign and Defense Affairs Committee for Yair Golan. Today we got an agreement with Labor, who managed to squeeze out quite a lot too- Transportation (probably for Michaeli), Internal Security (probably for Bar Lev), and Diaspora (I assume for Gilad Kariv), along with the Labor and Welfare Committee Chairwomanship (woman because I'm assuming it's going to Emily Moati). They also got 2 seats on the cabinet (Michaeli and Bar Lev) and a very critical seat in the judge selection committee for Michaeli, who'll be the government's sole representative (other than the Justice Minister) there. Lapid did promise the right a veto on SC judge selection by choosing the two Knesset representatives on the committee to be right-wingers (who'll be able to block with Sa'ar anyone they don't want for the SC).

So we'll see what's going to happen, but it might very well be that the change government is back on the menu.

Bennet has apparently agreed to a government. Hard to not be pessimistic but brace yourselves

I have a feeling after all that has happened this would be immediately poking the hornets nest. But god knows that Israel needs to remove the guy who has personal incentives to provoke bloodshed  for something different - see my above posts.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #824 on: May 28, 2021, 08:44:20 PM »

This popped up in my twitter feed.

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