Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

He updated that the meeting between Michaeli and Bennet was good, and that both her and Horovits aren't going to delay anything but still didn't get any offer. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaeli ends up at the Home Office, judging by her sly political maneuvering during the talks with Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai

That was damage control on her part. of course, they talked ministries, they didn't seat in her living room for an hour talking on the virtues of deliberative democracy. Michaeli should be careful, Ya'alon was an oaf, Huldai the sole ruler of his kingdom, and Shelah naive. She's sitting with people with accumulated months of coalition building and she should punch over her weight.
With no ministerial experience, she should take what's given. 

From my sources, though Horowitz wants a ministry for Freg the red camp in the party is dying for government and will force him to take whatever is offered. Golan will be bitter but he might get a spot in the Defence Committee to shout his boomer nonsense.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/barak_ehud/status/1390625429166362625

Is this s*** real? If so WTH?

[Walmart_shopper]

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

He updated that the meeting between Michaeli and Bennet was good, and that both her and Horovits aren't going to delay anything but still didn't get any offer. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaeli ends up at the Home Office, judging by her sly political maneuvering during the talks with Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai

There is no political rationale for keeping Michaeli from becoming interior minister. She should absolutely feel okay about walking away from negotiations if Bennet and Saar want to box her out. Horowitz should get education, but I could see him getting transportation and being fine with it because he could (and probably would) establish Saturday public transit.

My feeling is that things are more touch and go than it seems. Bennet has an empty hand so it is unlikely he will cause too many problems, but I do feel like the gulf between Meretz and Yamina and Raam is so wide and the margin of error so thin that anything could happen. Bennet and Shaked could even crawl back to Netanyahu, try to get the mandate for the knesset, and preen for the eight wing base before a fifth election. Some people, including Ben Caspit, seem to think thisbis pretty much done, but I think there is no chance Merav gets health and Horowitz gets culture or whatever and the right wing just dominates a coalition propped up by leftist votes. The left will demand more and won't really suffer politically if things blow up. Not saying they will blow up, but I think this is less done than people suppose.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/barak_ehud/status/1390625429166362625

Is this s*** real? If so WTH?

It is from Yisrael HaYom. It is likely spin from Yamina and Saar. It seems like it has almost no chance of happening, but I guess you never know given the distinct pack of courage the left wing opposition in Israel has traditionally shown.

[Hnv1]

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

He updated that the meeting between Michaeli and Bennet was good, and that both her and Horovits aren't going to delay anything but still didn't get any offer. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaeli ends up at the Home Office, judging by her sly political maneuvering during the talks with Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai

There is no political rationale for keeping Michaeli from becoming interior minister. She should absolutely feel okay about walking away from negotiations if Bennet and Saar want to box her out. Horowitz should get education, but I could see him getting transportation and being fine with it because he could (and probably would) establish Saturday public transit.

My feeling is that things are more touch and go than it seems. Bennet has an empty hand so it is unlikely he will cause too many problems, but I do feel like the gulf between Meretz and Yamina and Raam is so wide and the margin of error so thin that anything could happen. Bennet and Shaked could even crawl back to Netanyahu, try to get the mandate for the knesset, and preen for the eight wing base before a fifth election. Some people, including Ben Caspit, seem to think thisbis pretty much done, but I think there is no chance Merav gets health and Horowitz gets culture or whatever and the right wing just dominates a coalition propped up by leftist votes. The left will demand more and won't really suffer politically if things blow up. Not saying they will blow up, but I think this is less done than people suppose.

I'm not sure *SHE* wants that ministry. she seems to be saying she wants the treasury, but in fact wants to Home Office. She does have a bit of an ego, interior security gives her a place in the cabinet and control over the troublesome police.
Horowitz will take transportation\health, and environmental protection will go to Zandberg making Meretz very happy. they'll let go of education.

[America Needs R'hllor]

According to channel 12 (caution- they've been wrong in many, many occasions) Yamina has presented an ultimatum that Shaked gets Justice (rather than Sa'ar). Bunch of gluttons.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

According to channel 12 (caution- they've been wrong in many, many occasions) Yamina has presented an ultimatum that Shaked gets Justice (rather than Sa'ar). Bunch of gluttons.

Lapid and the left shouldn’t let them get away with overplaying their (decidedly weak) hand like that

[Kingpoleon]

Is Begin likely to get a Cabinet seat if Lapid forms the government?

[Hnv1]

According to channel 12 (caution- they've been wrong in many, many occasions) Yamina has presented an ultimatum that Shaked gets Justice (rather than Sa'ar). Bunch of gluttons.

More like Shaked is trying to spin to get something that hag.

[Hnv1]

Is Begin likely to get a Cabinet seat if Lapid forms the government?

Probably be in government on the right bloc quota. Not sure about cabinet (in the Israeli sense).

The Norwegian law means that:
Places 7 and 8 in Meretz and Sara’s lists could get in instead of two ministers.
Three subs for Yamina, YB, Labour, B&W for three ministers from each.
Five subs for five ministers from YA

I assume most parties will use it to enable Knesset work and keep more people happy

[America Needs R'hllor]

Is Begin likely to get a Cabinet seat if Lapid forms the government?

Probably be in government on the right bloc quota. Not sure about cabinet (in the Israeli sense).

The Norwegian law means that:
Places 7 and 8 in Meretz and Sara’s lists could get in instead of two ministers.
Three subs for Yamina, YB, Labour, B&W for three ministers from each.
Five subs for five ministers from YA

I assume most parties will use it to enable Knesset work and keep more people happy

I bet Labour will only use 2 at most. #10 Gil Beilin is a loser who challenged Michaeli for  leadership

[Pericles]

How close is a government to being formed? Hopefully this is finally the end of this drama and Netanyahu's time in power.

[Walmart_shopper]

According to channel 12 (caution- they've been wrong in many, many occasions) Yamina has presented an ultimatum that Shaked gets Justice (rather than Sa'ar). Bunch of gluttons.

The emperor has no clothes and ut's time someone told him. This is getting absurd.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ministries that look like a done deal:
Bennet- PM
Lapid- Foreign
Lieberman- Finance
Karin Elharar (YA)- Communications
Zandberg (Meretz)- Environmental Protection

Pretty sure that Defense for Gantz, Justice for Sa'ar, Education for Shasha Biton and Home for Shaked is very, very likely too, but you never know.

[Mike88]

Ministries that look like a done deal:
Bennet- PM
Lapid- Foreign
Lieberman- Finance
Karin Elharar (YA)- Communications
Zandberg (Meretz)- Environmental Protection

Pretty sure that Defense for Gantz, Justice for Sa'ar, Education for Shasha Biton and Home for Shaked is very, very likely too, but you never know.

Didn't Lapid get the mandate from the President to be PM?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ministries that look like a done deal:
Bennet- PM
Lapid- Foreign
Lieberman- Finance
Karin Elharar (YA)- Communications
Zandberg (Meretz)- Environmental Protection

Pretty sure that Defense for Gantz, Justice for Sa'ar, Education for Shasha Biton and Home for Shaked is very, very likely too, but you never know.

Didn't Lapid get the mandate from the President to be PM?

Yeah, but it'll probably be a rotation with Bennet for 2 years and Lapid for the next 2.

[Mike88]

Ministries that look like a done deal:
Bennet- PM
Lapid- Foreign
Lieberman- Finance
Karin Elharar (YA)- Communications
Zandberg (Meretz)- Environmental Protection

Pretty sure that Defense for Gantz, Justice for Sa'ar, Education for Shasha Biton and Home for Shaked is very, very likely too, but you never know.

Didn't Lapid get the mandate from the President to be PM?

Yeah, but it'll probably be a rotation with Bennet for 2 years and Lapid for the next 2.

Oh, right, the agreement will be similar with those in the 80's between Likud and Alignment.

[Hnv1]

Ministries that look like a done deal:
Bennet- PM
Lapid- Foreign
Lieberman- Finance
Karin Elharar (YA)- Communications
Zandberg (Meretz)- Environmental Protection

Pretty sure that Defense for Gantz, Justice for Sa'ar, Education for Shasha Biton and Home for Shaked is very, very likely too, but you never know.

Didn't Lapid get the mandate from the President to be PM?

Yeah, but it'll probably be a rotation with Bennet for 2 years and Lapid for the next 2.

Oh, right, the agreement will be similar with those in the 80's between Likud and Alignment.

The 80’s rotation was a gentleman’s agreement, Shamir got the mandate and two years later Peres got it and formed the same government (or the other way around). Now the rotation mechanism was built to the constitution so you can form a government as first or second PM, or simply as PM.

[Vosem]

By built into the constitution, do you mean that Bennett and Lapid are recycling the Netanyahu/Gantz agreement of 2020? Will one of them get to be 'Alternate Prime Minister' with veto power over everything? Is their agreement only for 3 years, with 18-month terms for both, rather than 4 years and 2-year terms?

[brucejoel99]

By built into the constitution, do you mean that Bennett and Lapid are recycling the Netanyahu/Gantz agreement of 2020? Will one of them get to be 'Alternate Prime Minister' with veto power over everything? Is their agreement only for 3 years, with 18-month terms for both, rather than 4 years and 2-year terms?

Not who you were responding to, but basically, yes & yes. What Bibi & Gantz codified into the Basic Law last year were binding general provisions for a rotation government, as opposed to provisions that applied to their own agreement only, & remain in force 'til a Knesset repeals them, so Bennett & Lapid would - like Bibi & Netanyahu before them - still be solely responsible for their own ministers. And it's being reported that the deal will be for 2 years, a swap, & then 2 more years.

[Hnv1]

By built into the constitution, do you mean that Bennett and Lapid are recycling the Netanyahu/Gantz agreement of 2020? Will one of them get to be 'Alternate Prime Minister' with veto power over everything? Is their agreement only for 3 years, with 18-month terms for both, rather than 4 years and 2-year terms?

Not who you were responding to, but basically, yes & yes. What Bibi & Gantz codified into the Basic Law last year were binding general provisions for a rotation government, as opposed to provisions that applied to their own agreement only, & remain in force 'til a Knesset repeals them, so Bennett & Lapid would - like Bibi & Netanyahu before them - still be solely responsible for their own ministers. And it's being reported that the deal will be for 2 years, a swap, & then 2 more years.

Aye the general mechanism of PM and the alternate with a rotation date set by the swearing in is now simply another option of government formation. There is a pending appeal against it in the SC, Likud can’t object now as it they are an estoppel.

This once temporary solution is going to be long running. Rotation government is what happens when a culture-of-honour meets the liberal rule-of-law

[Hnv1]

Two UTJ MKs call for Bibi to move aside for a year and a half so another right wing candidate will form a 65 seats government.
Not sure if it’s a small mutiny or an elaborate spin by Bibi, as they suggest he will continue to manage the relations with the US and the fight against Iran which was pretty much what he offered Bennett anyhow. Could be a desperate attempt to stall the coalition talks.

[Oryxslayer]

Jpost reports that the parties are aiming for a majority vote on Thursday at the latest. Shaas is standing by Netanyahu versus a different Likudnik, so there isn't a majority for that even if Bibi could set his ego aside. Abbas is to vote in favor rather than abstain, which probably means a lot of (desperately needed) pork-barrel investment is coming to Arab communities.

EDIT: The timetable has been moved up to Tuesday.

[brucejoel99]

Jpost reports that the parties are aiming for a majority vote on Thursday at the latest. Shaas is standing by Netanyahu versus a different Likudnik, so there isn't a majority for that even if Bibi could set his ego aside. Abbas is to vote in favor rather than abstain, which probably means a lot of (desperately needed) pork-barrel investment is coming to Arab communities.

EDIT: The timetable has been moved up to Tuesday.

Dare I say it's too soon, but:

[GALeftist]

Jpost reports that the parties are aiming for a majority vote on Thursday at the latest. Shaas is standing by Netanyahu versus a different Likudnik, so there isn't a majority for that even if Bibi could set his ego aside. Abbas is to vote in favor rather than abstain, which probably means a lot of (desperately needed) pork-barrel investment is coming to Arab communities.

EDIT: The timetable has been moved up to Tuesday.

Dare I say it's too soon, but:

Knock on wood