Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021
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Hnv1
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« Reply #725 on: May 05, 2021, 06:00:59 AM »

The Bibi bloc recommends no one. The mandate will 100% move to Lapid now for 28 days, again Bibi’s ego screwed him over.
They’re working really hard on Shakes and tearing Yamina from the inside. That Medusa might go along with it.
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« Reply #726 on: May 05, 2021, 09:20:23 AM »

The Bibi bloc recommends no one. The mandate will 100% move to Lapid now for 28 days, again Bibi’s ego screwed him over.
They’re working really hard on Shakes and tearing Yamina from the inside. That Medusa might go along with it.

It looks to me now that Bennet is really close to losing everything. I could see all of Shaked, Shikli, Silman and Kara leaving him and just Orbach and Kahana remaining loyal. If that happens I wonder if he still takes the PM spot with a 3 seat party not even named Yamina or if it's election #5.

I guess we could see a coalition of the 60 who recommended Lapid plus Balad abstaining, but that'd be very close and I doubt Sa'ar will go along.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #727 on: May 05, 2021, 10:38:55 AM »

Lapid officially has the mandate.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #728 on: May 05, 2021, 11:40:20 AM »

The Bibi bloc recommends no one. The mandate will 100% move to Lapid now for 28 days, again Bibi’s ego screwed him over.
They’re working really hard on Shakes and tearing Yamina from the inside. That Medusa might go along with it.

It looks to me now that Bennet is really close to losing everything. I could see all of Shaked, Shikli, Silman and Kara leaving him and just Orbach and Kahana remaining loyal. If that happens I wonder if he still takes the PM spot with a 3 seat party not even named Yamina or if it's election #5.

I guess we could see a coalition of the 60 who recommended Lapid plus Balad abstaining, but that'd be very close and I doubt Sa'ar will go along.
What a git. You own the party and have no primaries. If you can get the six behind you to back you how can you form a government.
If it’s just him and Saar it’s either Saar takes the lead or no rotation. He can’t be PM with a faction of 3, it would look pathetic.

The funny thing is everyone could see Shakes plotting from behind miles away. Gantz might make a revival in round 5 before he becomes PM in November.

Anyway Bibi now failed to form a government thrice. Livni, Peres, Ben Gurion, and Rosen all failed once.
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« Reply #729 on: May 05, 2021, 11:48:04 AM »

The Bibi bloc recommends no one. The mandate will 100% move to Lapid now for 28 days, again Bibi’s ego screwed him over.
They’re working really hard on Shakes and tearing Yamina from the inside. That Medusa might go along with it.

It looks to me now that Bennet is really close to losing everything. I could see all of Shaked, Shikli, Silman and Kara leaving him and just Orbach and Kahana remaining loyal. If that happens I wonder if he still takes the PM spot with a 3 seat party not even named Yamina or if it's election #5.

I guess we could see a coalition of the 60 who recommended Lapid plus Balad abstaining, but that'd be very close and I doubt Sa'ar will go along.
What a git. You own the party and have no primaries. If you can get the six behind you to back you how can you form a government.
If it’s just him and Saar it’s either Saar takes the lead or no rotation. He can’t be PM with a faction of 3, it would look pathetic.

The funny thing is everyone could see Shakes plotting from behind miles away. Gantz might make a revival in round 5 before he becomes PM in November.

Anyway Bibi now failed to form a government thrice. Livni, Peres, Ben Gurion, and Rosen all failed once.

Who's Rosen?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #730 on: May 05, 2021, 12:16:34 PM »

Mandate has returned to Rivlin, and will likely pass to the Lapid-Bennett alliance.

How likely is it that the Lapid-Bennett alliance produces a government?

The mood? It's already basically done and Netanyahu is already packing.

The reality? The left and Arab parties will not give Benmet and Shaked the keys to the kingdom, although they will give them the keys to 10 Balfour. Bennet is in a very poor bargaining position, so I doubt he will actually put up much of a fight, at least privately. The left and Saar will control key ministries, and Bennet will get PM and Shaked will get a key ministry. They'll agree to some secularist legislative reforms and some budgetary guidelines, but it will not be a legislatively robust agreement. The problem is that there are certain people, like Handel, who won't want to see the left and the Arabs will more clout than they've had in two decades, and they could throw a big fit and ruin the party. So it is probably 50/50 at this point.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #731 on: May 05, 2021, 12:19:18 PM »

The Bibi bloc recommends no one. The mandate will 100% move to Lapid now for 28 days, again Bibi’s ego screwed him over.
They’re working really hard on Shakes and tearing Yamina from the inside. That Medusa might go along with it.

It looks to me now that Bennet is really close to losing everything. I could see all of Shaked, Shikli, Silman and Kara leaving him and just Orbach and Kahana remaining loyal. If that happens I wonder if he still takes the PM spot with a 3 seat party not even named Yamina or if it's election #5.

I guess we could see a coalition of the 60 who recommended Lapid plus Balad abstaining, but that'd be very close and I doubt Sa'ar will go along.
What a git. You own the party and have no primaries. If you can get the six behind you to back you how can you form a government.
If it’s just him and Saar it’s either Saar takes the lead or no rotation. He can’t be PM with a faction of 3, it would look pathetic.

The funny thing is everyone could see Shakes plotting from behind miles away. Gantz might make a revival in round 5 before he becomes PM in November.

Anyway Bibi now failed to form a government thrice. Livni, Peres, Ben Gurion, and Rosen all failed once.

Who's Rosen?
Felix Rosenblat, later Pinhas Rosen, leader of the Progressive Party in the 50’s. Received the mandate in 51 from Weitzman as everyone disliked working with Ben Gurion
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Hnv1
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« Reply #732 on: May 06, 2021, 01:02:12 AM »

Shikli (Yamina) announces he will vote against the unity government. Shaked and the rest give full backing. With Ra’am they have exactly 61 for the swearing and don’t have to court the JL to abstain.

I hope they realize this needs to be done sooner rather than later and drag it 28 days. Bibi will work 24/7 from now on to demolish this project before completion.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #733 on: May 06, 2021, 02:28:01 AM »

Are there any Likudniks who could switch to the Lapid-Bennett camp once they see which way the wind blows?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #734 on: May 06, 2021, 06:06:53 AM »

Are there any Likudniks who could switch to the Lapid-Bennett camp once they see which way the wind blows?
Doubt. all suspects already jumped ship with Saar. At most you'll have minor revolts against Bibi the longer they stay in opposition. If the coalition is still stable after 2-3 years we might see Haim Katz and such eying Saar but I don't think that much will change.
Likud caucus now is either full blown Bibists (Ohana style), future PM material in their own mind (Katz, Edelstein, Barkat), and some placeholders like Steinitz and Dichter.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #735 on: May 06, 2021, 02:59:08 PM »

This might be the wrong place to ask this question but I'll go: given all the swings and the PR system, who's the longest serving member of the Knesset? would it be Netanyahu?

I'm guessing there's no longevity in office like the UK where you had Kenneth Clarke from 1970 until recently or Don Young who's been hanging around the House since 1973.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #736 on: May 06, 2021, 03:07:45 PM »

This might be the wrong place to ask this question but I'll go: given all the swings and the PR system, who's the longest serving member of the Knesset? would it be Netanyahu?

I'm guessing there's no longevity in office like the UK where you had Kenneth Clarke from 1970 until recently or Don Young who's been hanging around the House since 1973.

Used to be Amir Peretz. Now I THINK it's Tzahi Hanegbi and Netanyahu tied, or something?
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omar04
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« Reply #737 on: May 06, 2021, 10:07:30 PM »

how long would the coalition last even if Lapid managed to form it? I assume it would end when Netanyahus political career does.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #738 on: May 07, 2021, 12:56:35 AM »

This might be the wrong place to ask this question but I'll go: given all the swings and the PR system, who's the longest serving member of the Knesset? would it be Netanyahu?

I'm guessing there's no longevity in office like the UK where you had Kenneth Clarke from 1970 until recently or Don Young who's been hanging around the House since 1973.

Used to be Amir Peretz. Now I THINK it's Tzahi Hanegbi and Netanyahu tied, or something?
Both were elected in that 88 snooze fest. Hanegbi has the seniority as he served more years while Netanyahu had 4 years outside. From the 92 batch we have Deri’i I believe
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Hnv1
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« Reply #739 on: May 07, 2021, 04:43:17 AM »

Triple meeting between Lapid, Saar, Bennett. Seems everything is practically agreed between them now they need to get all the rest to line up. YB issued a chunky (but very reasonable) set of demands today. Bennett is meeting with Michaeli ATM, and her partner (the comedian Lior Schlein) is indicating she was offered the Agriculture Ministry (this might be a joke idk). That won't do. Meretz demand education but it seems they won't get it and may be offered Health.
Part for Gantz no one can really afford to say no so very little wriggle room. Though Lapid would be wise to give Michaeli something bigger if he doesn't want her to create mini-crises all the time.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #740 on: May 07, 2021, 04:59:42 AM »

Triple meeting between Lapid, Saar, Bennett. Seems everything is practically agreed between them now they need to get all the rest to line up. YB issued a chunky (but very reasonable) set of demands today. Bennett is meeting with Michaeli ATM, and her partner (the comedian Lior Schlein) is indicating she was offered the Agriculture Ministry (this might be a joke idk). That won't do. Meretz demand education but it seems they won't get it and may be offered Health.
Part for Gantz no one can really afford to say no so very little wriggle room. Though Lapid would be wise to give Michaeli something bigger if he doesn't want her to create mini-crises all the time.

I'm pretty sure Agriculture is a joke. But it seems she's being offered Internal Security, which I hope she refuses because it's a poisoned role. Shaked should be Internal Security.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #741 on: May 07, 2021, 05:39:53 AM »

Triple meeting between Lapid, Saar, Bennett. Seems everything is practically agreed between them now they need to get all the rest to line up. YB issued a chunky (but very reasonable) set of demands today. Bennett is meeting with Michaeli ATM, and her partner (the comedian Lior Schlein) is indicating she was offered the Agriculture Ministry (this might be a joke idk). That won't do. Meretz demand education but it seems they won't get it and may be offered Health.
Part for Gantz no one can really afford to say no so very little wriggle room. Though Lapid would be wise to give Michaeli something bigger if he doesn't want her to create mini-crises all the time.
I'm pretty sure Agriculture is a joke. But it seems she's being offered Internal Security, which I hope she refuses because it's a poisoned role. Shaked should be Internal Security.
That’s a good position for her. Reform the much-in-need-of-total-overhaul police, and a statutory place in the security cabinet. I see the appeal for Michaeli there. Horowitz would be thrilled with Health. So I guess that’s that.
Another meeting with Gantz now...it seems they’re pitching the portfolios now in order to announce it before Shabbat, thus forcing Levine to hold the vote no further than next Thursday and block haredi pressure for 24 hours
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Hnv1
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« Reply #742 on: May 07, 2021, 07:00:41 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2021, 07:32:29 AM by Hnv1 »

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #743 on: May 07, 2021, 08:55:10 AM »

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #744 on: May 07, 2021, 09:10:16 AM »

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?
Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #745 on: May 07, 2021, 09:32:31 AM »

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?
Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.


For the major suspects, it's of course mostly Yamina- I only view Kahana and Orbach as 100% loyal to Bennet, Silman and Kara displayed pretty strong loyalty though. So it's probably Shaked as the main one (other than Chikli).
In New Hope, Sa'ar, Biton, Elkin and Begin are all pragmatists, so it's probably Haskel as the most likely defector, followed by Hendel (lol).
I doubt KL will break up after holding together through so many things. The only one I can see is maybe Trooper?

Also, as predicted, Lapid and Bennet met Lieberman now.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #746 on: May 07, 2021, 09:50:20 AM »

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?
Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.


For the major suspects, it's of course mostly Yamina- I only view Kahana and Orbach as 100% loyal to Bennet, Silman and Kara displayed pretty strong loyalty though. So it's probably Shaked as the main one (other than Chikli).
In New Hope, Sa'ar, Biton, Elkin and Begin are all pragmatists, so it's probably Haskel as the most likely defector, followed by Hendel (lol).
I doubt KL will break up after holding together through so many things. The only one I can see is maybe Trooper?

Also, as predicted, Lapid and Bennet met Lieberman now.
Shaked, Hendel, and Tamano Shata respectively. Not to defect but simply vote against.

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #747 on: May 07, 2021, 09:58:16 AM »

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?
Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.


For the major suspects, it's of course mostly Yamina- I only view Kahana and Orbach as 100% loyal to Bennet, Silman and Kara displayed pretty strong loyalty though. So it's probably Shaked as the main one (other than Chikli).
In New Hope, Sa'ar, Biton, Elkin and Begin are all pragmatists, so it's probably Haskel as the most likely defector, followed by Hendel (lol).
I doubt KL will break up after holding together through so many things. The only one I can see is maybe Trooper?

Also, as predicted, Lapid and Bennet met Lieberman now.
Shaked, Hendel, and Tamano Shata respectively. Not to defect but simply vote against.

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

I never understood this Tamano Shata thing honestly. She's been against Netanyahu for a long while and came from yesh atid
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Hnv1
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« Reply #748 on: May 07, 2021, 10:23:01 AM »

After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?
Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.


For the major suspects, it's of course mostly Yamina- I only view Kahana and Orbach as 100% loyal to Bennet, Silman and Kara displayed pretty strong loyalty though. So it's probably Shaked as the main one (other than Chikli).
In New Hope, Sa'ar, Biton, Elkin and Begin are all pragmatists, so it's probably Haskel as the most likely defector, followed by Hendel (lol).
I doubt KL will break up after holding together through so many things. The only one I can see is maybe Trooper?

Also, as predicted, Lapid and Bennet met Lieberman now.
Shaked, Hendel, and Tamano Shata respectively. Not to defect but simply vote against.

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

I never understood this Tamano Shata thing honestly. She's been against Netanyahu for a long while and came from yesh atid
Very right wing and pro settlers and with a deep dislike to Arabs.

It seems Michaeli is demanding the home office. A reform in the police is more important than some US reform Jews, she better come to terms in a day or two
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #749 on: May 07, 2021, 10:47:44 AM »

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

He updated that the meeting between Michaeli and Bennet was good, and that both her and Horovits aren't going to delay anything but still didn't get any offer. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaeli ends up at the Home Office, judging by her sly political maneuvering during the talks with Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai
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