Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

Bennett is having successive meetings with Bibi (even invited to Balfour street!) and they will the negotiation teams meet up starting next week. Can’t see it happening as long as Smotric remains unwilling to accept Ra’am supported government, but Bibi us desperate to get rid of the rotation government.

I really can’t see the Lapid-Bennett government taking shape, sorry to disappoint everyone.

Presidential elections starting to speed up. Current declared candidates: former Rafi/Labour MK Michael Bar Zohar; former Labour minister, and my former teacher, Prof. Shimon Sheetreet (massive tosser); Amir Peretz. Herzog is rumoured to be in with no official statement yet. No one from the right put forward yet beside weirdo Yehuda Glick.

The campaign is on going. No, not that one. Future PMs in their own mind Chief of Mossad Yossi Cohen, and Chief of the GS Lt. Gen. Kochavi having a covert media war.

Elham Khazen (Arab woman who’s a member of B&W and ran on Labour’s list previously) is running according to wikipedia as well.

Doubt she’ll get the signatures needed.

If I were the anti Bibi bloc I’d use the nuclear option. But they are too cowardly

[jaymichaud]

...

So, that's it?

[Hnv1]

...

So, that's it?

What is?

[Hnv1]

Likud are spinning a bill to have a direct election for PM. Clear spin as there is no Justice minister so no constitutional legislation, and as it is retro-prospective it's unconstitutional. They're basically trying to nip the Lapid-Bennett government in the bud knowing Bibi's chances are over.

Some signs of stress earlier from Bibi as he called the front bench of Likud for a meeting (possibly to quell a mutiny) but it was later canceled.

Bibi is definitely on edge. Attending UTJ caucus meeting today. Losing the vote on the house committee shook him. I think he thinks it’s likely a Lapid-Bennett axis will happen and UTJ are the weak link in his bloc

[Oryxslayer]

Probably not UTJ per-say but Degel haTorah who made statements at the start of this mess that they wanted to avoid another election, which would mean sacrifices. Of course so far this simply means cooperation with the Arabs.

[Hnv1]

I think some back room deals were made. Likud people are saying they’re heading to the opposition. That’s interesting as it’s been over a decade since they uttered something like that.

I believe losing the vote today and Smotric not moving means the Lapid-Bennett government is now an actual possibility in less than 20 days

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1384224055641870337?s=20

Yep, something big happened.

https://twitter.com/Gil_Hoffman/status/1384172992716967951?s=20

Opposition has control of the Knesset for now, even though they lack a govt.

[Kingpoleon]

It appears Netanyahu’s reign may be over. We ought not celebrate too early.

[America Needs R'hllor]

A pretty grand trick by Lapid and Sa'ar. Likud made a deal with Yamina and thought they won the vote for the Knesset Committee because Ra'am will abstain, but following a meeting with Lapid Ra'am came in last moment to oppose the Likud suggestion and support Lapid's (with Yamina supporting the former and abstaining from the latter).

Lapid has certainly been proving himself.

[Hnv1]

A pretty grand trick by Lapid and Sa'ar. Likud made a deal with Yamina and thought they won the vote for the Knesset Committee because Ra'am will abstain, but following a meeting with Lapid Ra'am came in last moment to oppose the Likud suggestion and support Lapid's (with Yamina supporting the former and abstaining from the latter).

Lapid has certainly been proving himself.

Pretty sure it was Saar who was the mastermind behind it. He sent Bennett to appease Bibi and meanwhile is working on the rotation government backstage.

I'd still wait. I'm not sure Shaked is fully on board with Bennett yet. She would need to get some big ministry and I'm not sure Lapid and the rest would agree to her in Justice

[DC Al Fine]

Bibi is definitely on edge. Attending UTJ caucus meeting today. Losing the vote on the house committee shook him. I think he thinks it’s likely a Lapid-Bennett axis will happen and UTJ are the weak link in his bloc

What does UTJ (or Degel HaTorah I guess) get out of a Lapid-Bennett government? Bennett is presumably acceptable to them, but Lapid is quite anti-clerical. I assume one or both parties had to make some compromises?

[Hnv1]

Bibi is definitely on edge. Attending UTJ caucus meeting today. Losing the vote on the house committee shook him. I think he thinks it’s likely a Lapid-Bennett axis will happen and UTJ are the weak link in his bloc

What does UTJ (or Degel HaTorah I guess) get out of a Lapid-Bennett government? Bennett is presumably acceptable to them, but Lapid is quite anti-clerical. I assume one or both parties had to make some compromises?

Well firstly there's an anti-Bibi sentiment spreading within UTJ and he wants to crush that.

Whether they're in or out they can count on Sa'ar and Bennett to somehow look out for their interests from within through entertaining the possibility of joining their government. Shas are so entwined with Bibi and Likud they're basically one big party now (they even de facto operate like that in some municipalities).

UTJ unlike Shas are a scion of hundreds of years of traditions they must preserve, if it's clear Bibi is Kaput they will be the first to leave him.

Also, Lapid has been trying to lower the flames with the Haredi for a while, it might be easier with UTJ on account of them being only Haredi and not Haredi and Sephardi like Shas.

[Angel of Death]

Ra'am has simply been trolling a desperate Netanyahu into breaking down the taboo on Arab participation in governance.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Very good, I'm expecting new info's.

[Hnv1]

This is now basically down to Bennett’s psychological resilience to Bibi’s vitriol. Which is quite poor. So still lower than 50% to oust him now

[Hnv1]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

[America Needs R'hllor]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government.  

Won’t Rivlin likely give the mandate to Bennett instead of Lapid simply to increase the chances of a right-wing government? 

[Hnv1]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government.  

Won’t Rivlin likely give the mandate to Bennett instead of Lapid simply to increase the chances of a right-wing government? 

Why will he do that?
They will have to agree beforehand between them otherwise he throws it back to the house I reckon.

[Hnv1]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

[America Needs R'hllor]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

[Hnv1]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

That’s 5 ministries for 13 MKs, considering the new government would be at most 24 members big, and YA have to allocate a lot to their people that’s a bit out of order.
Zandberg can take Social Equality or somewhere else she won’t do damage in. Most of Labour’s bench are rookies with zero political experience. Give them house committees over ministries.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

That’s 5 ministries for 13 MKs, considering the new government would be at most 24 members big, and YA have to allocate a lot to their people that’s a bit out of order.
Zandberg can take Social Equality or somewhere else she won’t do damage in. Most of Labour’s bench are rookies with zero political experience. Give them house committees over ministries.

That's fair. The problem is that the current negotiating position of the right isn't fair. Af least one major ministry like Home should be non negotiable.

[Hnv1]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

That’s 5 ministries for 13 MKs, considering the new government would be at most 24 members big, and YA have to allocate a lot to their people that’s a bit out of order.
Zandberg can take Social Equality or somewhere else she won’t do damage in. Most of Labour’s bench are rookies with zero political experience. Give them house committees over ministries.

That's fair. The problem is that the current negotiating position of the right isn't fair. Af least one major ministry like Home should be non negotiable.

It would be prudent to bloc together and demand one top portfolio (not sure the home office is the one they'd want) and other junior ministries. Though knowing Meretz they would rather negotiate separately and incompently.

It is actually quite a pickle. we have 6 parties roughly the same size and slightly bigger YA. and as YB aren't counted with the right bloc this time it means again some problem in manning offices to have equal weight.

Gantz and Liberman will both demand 2 ministries each with each getting a senior one. YA have a lot of people waiting on the side line for a ministry. It would see that the left could either get 1 big one and 2 very small ones or just small ones. But as I don't see Zandberg backing down on getting a ministry it would be difficult to appease everyone here. Just to show you that the left isn't that different from the right when it comes to their egos.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

That’s 5 ministries for 13 MKs, considering the new government would be at most 24 members big, and YA have to allocate a lot to their people that’s a bit out of order.
Zandberg can take Social Equality or somewhere else she won’t do damage in. Most of Labour’s bench are rookies with zero political experience. Give them house committees over ministries.

That's fair. The problem is that the current negotiating position of the right isn't fair. Af least one major ministry like Home should be non negotiable.

It would be prudent to bloc together and demand one top portfolio (not sure the home office is the one they'd want) and other junior ministries. Though knowing Meretz they would rather negotiate separately and incompently.

It is actually quite a pickle. we have 6 parties roughly the same size and slightly bigger YA. and as YB aren't counted with the right bloc this time it means again some problem in manning offices to have equal weight.

Gantz and Liberman will both demand 2 ministries each with each getting a senior one. YA have a lot of people waiting on the side line for a ministry. It would see that the left could either get 1 big one and 2 very small ones or just small ones. But as I don't see Zandberg backing down on getting a ministry it would be difficult to appease everyone here. Just to show you that the left isn't that different from the right when it comes to their egos.

It is pretty ridiculous that YB is counted with the left. Seems to me like a mistake in framing.