Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[cp]

A summary of the last two years from ag on the other Atlas:

"For you to live to see the 40th Knesset" sounds like a Jewish blessing - except that it might, actually, be a curse.

What's the 'other Atlas'?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

A summary of the last two years from ag on the other Atlas:

"For you to live to see the 40th Knesset" sounds like a Jewish blessing - except that it might, actually, be a curse.

What's the 'other Atlas'?

Atlas After Dark, a spicier version or something.

[DC Al Fine]

Like regular Atlas except you can tell an attempted suicide to kill themselves and get away of it.

[cp]

A summary of the last two years from ag on the other Atlas:

"For you to live to see the 40th Knesset" sounds like a Jewish blessing - except that it might, actually, be a curse.

What's the 'other Atlas'?

Atlas After Dark, a spicier version or something.

Like regular Atlas except you can tell an attempted suicide to kill themselves and get away of it.

I did not come here to be mocked!

[GeorgiaModerate]

A summary of the last two years from ag on the other Atlas:

"For you to live to see the 40th Knesset" sounds like a Jewish blessing - except that it might, actually, be a curse.

What's the 'other Atlas'?

Atlas After Dark, a spicier version or something.

Like regular Atlas except you can tell an attempted suicide to kill themselves and get away of it.

I did not come here to be mocked!

This is argument.  Mockery is down the hall.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I like my online fora without violent bigots or suicide-baiting keyboard warriors (sane, apparently abnormal).

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, I think one of the big takeaways from Round 4 should be the seemingly monolithic stability of the various political poles. One has known this for a while-its the defining trait of multiparty polarization, but votes were finally presented with a semi-new party alignment and not much changed. Bibi + National Religious is still essentially the same size as previously, the only things that really changes is how much Likud decides to eat their partners each cycle. The Haredim and Yisrael Beiteinu are stable. The Secularist "change" camp didn't change preferences, just move around. However on defines the Gantz side of B&W (Masorti, Security, Centrist, etc) stayed the same, some voters just migrated to Sa'ar. Lapid's Secular Liberal side was stable. The minor Left-Secularist voter base is still there, they just regained some voters previously on "loan" to the untied B&W change party in previous cycles.

The one group of factions which isn't stable are the Arabs. We have had elections where the factions united unanimously behind the Joint List, an we have had ones with a fragmented vote. Turnout fluctuates and opinions change. In hindsight it is clear Likud understood this from the past three cycles, and therefore tried to "massage" the Arab vote in a dozen ways in an attempt to widen the gap between voter preferences and Knesset seats enough to give his coalition majority of seats. This  however has failed and Bibi probably won't get a second try at these tactics. Arab turnout went down and some Arab factions previously open to voting for Jewish parties voted Likud, but more Arabs broke from the Joint list in favor of the Secularists, Labor and Meretz especially. The combined breakaways though weren't enough for Ra'am to drop below the threshold and negate their votes. All told Arab voters successfully tactically voted and to enlarge those Secular parties threatened by the threshold and kept the Arab parties above the threshold, also once again denying Likud their majority.




In an unrelate note, something that because very clear this cycle in that Yisrael Beiteinu did well with the Druze. I'm not sure why, maybe someone more in the know can explain. Previously most of these areas went solidly for the unified B&W ticket, but not all. YB won a bunch of the Druze towns in the North and Golan, and received solid percentages in many others.

[Motorcity]

If I was an Israeli, I would be fed up with all these elections

[danny]

Arab turnout went down and some Arab factions previously open to voting for Jewish parties voted Likud, but more Arabs broke from the Joint list in favor of the Secularists, Labor and Meretz especially.

I don't see any evidence from the results that new Likud voters come from other Jewish parties rather than from the Joint list or from new voters. checking the results by locality for places where Likud had a decent increase:

Abu Gosh:
2020:
Joint List: 80.4
Likud: 10.4
other: 9.1

2021:
Arab Parties: 65.8
Likud: 24.4
other: 9.71

Naaura:
2020:
Joint list: 92.1
Likud: 0.3
other: 7.6

2021:
Arab parties: 72
Likud: 11.67
other: 16.33

Fureidis:
2020:
Joint list: 96.4
Likud: 0.4
other: 3.2

2021:
Arab parties: 76.5
Likud: 6.8
other: 16.7

In most places it’s to prove the case but if Likud is increasing more than all non Arab parties combined it can’t all be coming from them, and I really don’t see why this would be the case in particular.
This can also be seen in the opposite case, where a strong showing from the non Joint List or Likud in 2020 was no guarantee of Likud success in 2021.

Kafar Qasem:
2020:
Joint list: 91.7
Likud: 0.4
other: 7.9

2021:
Arab parties: 77.53
Likud: 0.95
other: 21.52

[Former President tack50]

I like my online fora without violent bigots or suicide-baiting keyboard warriors (sane, apparently abnormal).

Meh, sometimes you want things to be a bit "spicy" (and I say this as someone who hates spicy food and who prefers this over AAD most of the time)

[CumbrianLefty]

If I was an Israeli, I would be fed up with all these elections

I think quite a few outside Israel are getting a bit fed up with them now

[Oryxslayer]

Arab turnout went down and some Arab factions previously open to voting for Jewish parties voted Likud, but more Arabs broke from the Joint list in favor of the Secularists, Labor and Meretz especially.

I don't see any evidence from the results that new Likud voters come from other Jewish parties rather than from the Joint list or from new voters. checking the results by locality for places where Likud had a decent increase:

Ha-ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is “Never get involved in a land war in Asia,” but only slightly less well known is this: “Never compare vote percentages before accounting for turnout!"

In all seriousness, you got to download the excel and do the work to actually get a sense of the data.

Locality	Likud2020	Others 2020	Likud2021	Others2021
בסמת טבעון	33	348	303	537
גש גוש חלב	11	394	148	376
פסוטה	21	327	125	433
טובאזנגריה	28	340	286	522
נאעורה	3	82	70	168
רהט	136	1677	1026	2526
אבו גוש	280	525	476	665
פוריידיס	19	186	173	598
נאעורה	3	82	70	168

Yes, there are outlier places like ראס עלי, or אל סייד, but far more common is the situation where Likud gains less than the total non-Arab 2020 vote. This is especially the case in the monolithic Triangle or Northern towns where it was more a case of Likud going from 0% to 5%, rather than a good showing. I'm sure if we did a deeper analysis and compared election 1 where there was multiple Arab parties, we would see the non-JL vote grow.

In the end though, there is no service where you can pay money to know who voted precisely how like in the US, so we don't know if Likud found new voters, pulled from the Joint List, or pulled from the other parties. However it is awfully convenient in most cases that the Likud 2021 vote in Arab areas is equal to or less than the Non-JL 2020 vote. My theory is that Likud pulled these non-JL voters who were already open to voting for Jewish parties and didn't vote for the List when it was strongest through its campaign, but the campaign prompted a similar backlash among some of the former JL voters angry at Likud's double-dealing (Arab appeals-Kahan alliance), or just comprised internally in an attempt to give non-Likud mainly-Jewish parties a majority-to get around the YB-Joint List distrust. They voted for the most approachable of the opposition like Labor, Yesh Atid, and Meretz. But that's just a theory.

[cinyc]

What's it going to take to break the stalemate?

A 5th election.

It's not clear a 5th election just wouldn't end up with the same result. What breaks the logjam? Bibi resigning as Likud head? I don't think that's likely.

[brucejoel99]

What's it going to take to break the stalemate?

A 5th election.

It's not clear a 5th election just wouldn't end up with the same result. What breaks the logjam? Bibi resigning as Likud head? I don't think that's likely.

So long as 61 MKs continue to not be able to agree on one person, another election is always in the cards. Maybe the proposed "presidential option" is invoked, but we're still a bit of a ways off from that.

[Hnv1]

What's it going to take to break the stalemate?

A 5th election.

It's not clear a 5th election just wouldn't end up with the same result. What breaks the logjam? Bibi resigning as Likud head? I don't think that's likely.

Well, Gantz will assume office as full PM in November. This at least makes the likelihood of a sixth cycle unlikely as Bibi would be very much unwilling to go to the public without the aura of office.

In Israel the PM residence is more than just a domestic environment, it's the source of imagined\real power. Hence, why I think Bibi will rather tear down the entire system than sit and let Gantz take charge and put him out of Balfour St. The current Likud has a certain anarchist element to it, one that the Haredi won't mind backing. These people truly hate the State of Israel and would be delighted to see it replaced with a constitutional entity in their mold.
Though I think that they might overestimate the zeal of their electorate. The vote for Likud is down in all the strongholds and I doubt many would risk any harm for him. Israel won't have a January 7 moment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

At the very least, all of this must provide a sense of total & complete faith in the integrity of Israel's electoral process. After all, there just can't be a secret cabal somewhere that would willingly conspire to arrange for all of this bullsh*t.

But Jews are involved! How can that be!?

Usually I don't do this but DISCLAIMER: I'm a Jew and am being completely satirical, if any of that wasn't clear.

We are the world's least competent puppetmasters.

I know, right!? We can't even get our space lasers to work!

[Blair]

so what's the likelihood of their not being a 5th election & more importantly is anything actually going to change at election no.5 to stop it leading to no.6?

[Oryxslayer]

so what's the likelihood of their not being a 5th election & more importantly is anything actually going to change at election no.5 to stop it leading to no.6?

Well as brought up previously, the Knesset will have to elect a (HoS) President before the summer and if a government isn't inaugurated than Gantz rotates into the PM slot in November and gets all the powers and privileges of that office - even if the Likud ministers still prefer to listen to Bibi. Both developments have the potential to disrupt the stalemate if Israel goes to round 5, either by encouraging turnout in certain factions or by having others and their politicians reevaluate who they prefer governing with. What happens because of these events is a future question, but one that will effect round 5.

I can't tell you though if said election is inevitable or if there is a realistic possibility of govt though: plenty of politicians are circulating theoretical coalitions proposals but none seem all that likely given party preferences.

[sguberman]

Who do you guys think Biden supported in the election?

[brucejoel99]

Who do you guys think Biden supported in the election?

Presumably Lapid, as the leader of the not-Bibi bloc.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/harelcain/status/1376194215714168839?s=20

Translation: "Contrary to previous plans, I was nevertheless tempted to calculate the transition of votes between the elections to the 23rd Knesset and the 24th Knesset (March 2020 vs. March 2021). The results are based on the data currently available below."



I would note the stability above anything else, especially when accounting for party allignments.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Idk what data he used but some of it is indeed odd- for example, the Likud voters for Gantz.

[Hnv1]

Idk what data he used but some of it is indeed odd- for example, the Likud voters for Gantz.

I would take his model with a huge grain of salt. The number of precincts changed and double envelopes grew by 50%. There’s no way a fifth of YB were non voters, he just uses it to even up numbers

[Oryxslayer]

Idk what data he used but some of it is indeed odd- for example, the Likud voters for Gantz.

I would take his model with a huge grain of salt. The number of precincts changed and double envelopes grew by 50%. There’s no way a fifth of YB were non voters, he just uses it to even up numbers

Yeah, I noted upthread that unless one could get their hands on voter history files, like those that exist in some US states, it would be hard to tell what swings there are and what was just turnout. I just figured the flawed attempt at alleviating this conundrum deserved some recognition.

[Hnv1]

Every left pundit under the sun is suggesting imaginary coalitions. From Benny Begin as caretaker PM, to a gang of four.

I really wish they would realize a fifth cycle is imminent instead of wasting futile efforts on this nonsense