Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[jaymichaud]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

Not sure. I’ll doubt they’ll run alone considering how unpopular Peretz is. Shmuli might jump ship. They might run win Meretz (with a shotgun wedding) or with B&W if they run at all. Or they will run with the new Holdai party.

Is there really going to be a Huldai party? I feel like there's been speculation about this for the last two decades and it's never happened. Why would Huldai run now that he's 76 and probably wouldn't be a prime ministerial contender, which he could have been in the past?

Well firstly because he said he’ll run a few days ago. So I guess that’s happening.
Secondly he rightly senses that there is a sentiment right now of people looking for good managers regardless of left and right post Covid. Honestly he’s the best managerial type the left has to offer.

Even if he doesn’t propel himself to the top he’ll get a ministerial position. And after 22 years as mayor it might look an interesting change for him

What's the point in starting a new political party? Judging by where he'd be on the political spectrum a 'Huldai party' would just be Havoda in drag.

[Horus]

This is becoming hilarious

[jaymichaud]

This is becoming hilarious

We asked?

[Horus]

This is becoming hilarious

We asked?

Who is we? Are you Israeli? I thought you were Canadian.

And yeah four elections in two years is pretty hilarious. Just more proof that Israel is a dysfunctional, failed democracy.

[Oryxslayer]

This is becoming hilarious

We asked?

Who is we? Are you Israeli? I thought you were Canadian.

And yeah four elections in two years is pretty hilarious. Just more proof that Israel is a dysfunctional, failed democracy.

I mean, if the voters are polarized, fail to give either block a majority and punish anyone who breaks ranks like B&W, can we blame em? The parliamentary system tends to struggle in these scenarios cause no one wants to cooperate even though the system needs you to.

Anyway, yeah, I'm back after a breif hiatus. I also recommend this thread stops viewing it as a left-right vote, cause Labor is DOA, and more as a Secular vs Religious & their Enablers, cause that was for several years now - and likely will be - how blocks and coalitions are structured.

[Hnv1]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

Not sure. I’ll doubt they’ll run alone considering how unpopular Peretz is. Shmuli might jump ship. They might run win Meretz (with a shotgun wedding) or with B&W if they run at all. Or they will run with the new Holdai party.

Is there really going to be a Huldai party? I feel like there's been speculation about this for the last two decades and it's never happened. Why would Huldai run now that he's 76 and probably wouldn't be a prime ministerial contender, which he could have been in the past?

Well firstly because he said he’ll run a few days ago. So I guess that’s happening.
Secondly he rightly senses that there is a sentiment right now of people looking for good managers regardless of left and right post Covid. Honestly he’s the best managerial type the left has to offer.

Even if he doesn’t propel himself to the top he’ll get a ministerial position. And after 22 years as mayor it might look an interesting change for him

What's the point in starting a new political party? Judging by where he'd be on the political spectrum a 'Huldai party' would just be Havoda in drag.

No need to work through the channels of an existing party and more bargaining power in a later merger (what will probably happen)

It’s more than likely that labour will “join” giving him a Skelton party to work with.

[Velasco]

Anyway, yeah, I'm back after a breif hiatus. I also recommend this thread stops viewing it as a left-right vote, cause Labor is DOA, and more as a Secular vs Religious & their Enablers, cause that was for several years now - and likely will be - how blocks and coalitions are structured.

I agree with you as the main cleavage is not left vs right, amomg other things because the left in Israel is increasingly irrelevant. However, my impression as a non-expert outsider is that the main cleavage is not on the religious question, even though it's an important element. I'd say there's a national-religious-settler bloc opposed to the weakened proponents of a secular state. I think the ultranationalist element (the evolution of the so-called "revisionist zionism") is more important than the religious one. Liberal zionism is in a steep decline, on the other hand

[Hnv1]

As this the closest to a snap election I thought I'll do daily updates to keep track:

- Sharon Haskel is resigning from Likud today moving to Sa'ar meaning Ayoub Karah the legend is going back to the knesset!! priceless. Haskel is very big with the incels and right-libertarians, they have between 30-60k votes.

- Bennett is going to give a speech tonight proclaiming he's running for PM. vacuous statements legally but it might clarify his position on a future Bibi coalition.

- Knesset officially dissolved hence we are back at the interim government now only Bibi can't sack B&W ministers. This is going to be odd.

- early morning poll from panel4all (decent pollster):
Likud 28
New Hope 18
YA 15
Yamina - 14
JL - 11
UTJ - 8
Shas - 8
YB - 7
Meretz - 6
B&W - 5 (lol to the power of rofl)


- Likud are reembracing the Trump techniques and oppose any reform in voting procedures due to Covid.

[Hnv1]

Anyway, yeah, I'm back after a breif hiatus. I also recommend this thread stops viewing it as a left-right vote, cause Labor is DOA, and more as a Secular vs Religious & their Enablers, cause that was for several years now - and likely will be - how blocks and coalitions are structured.

I agree with you as the main cleavage is not left vs right, amomg other things because the left in Israel is increasingly irrelevant. However, my impression as a non-expert outsider is that the main cleavage is not on the religious question, even though it's an important element. I'd say there's a national-religious-settler bloc opposed to the weakened proponents of a secular state. I think the ultranationalist element (the evolution of the so-called "revisionist zionism") is more important than the religious one. Liberal zionism is in a steep decline, on the other hand

Left-Right as Doves-Hawks is indeed dead as disco. I would say the Conservative-Liberal axis is better but not that fine tuned (a lot of Likud voters are secular-traditionalists who don't care much for religious norms).
The better definition is a blast from the past (oh the 80's) Jews-Israelis, and to some extent Sephardi-Ashkenazi now that YB is in the Israeli camp. Shas is basically a sister party of Likud at this stage and UTJ are the exception. both blocs have some that don't follow the distinction well, but this is it.

[Velasco]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

[Hnv1]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

[Velasco]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

There's no alternative to Bibi's bloc without the coooeration of the Joint List, so Netanyahu will stay forever if he wants to.  According to the Wikipedia "New Hope" is "conservative" and "national liberal", something like the German People's Party in the Weimar era.

[Hnv1]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

There's no alternative to Bibi's bloc without the coooeration of the Joint List, so Netanyahu will stay forever if he wants to.  According to the Wikipedia "New Hope" is "conservative" and "national liberal", something like the German People's Party in the Weimar era.

I think Sa'ar broke that equation as he's taking votes from the Bibi bloc (Yamina as well to a smaller extent). as it stands he might be able to form a government with Meretz abstaining (it remains to be seen what Smotric and Shaked will do after Bennett inevitably crashes to tops 12 seats.

That's why Bibi was bricking it and tried to delay the election he wanted, Sa'ar is the biggest threat on him for a long while. He already proved that he can outmaneuver Bibi in politics when needed, not religious so can't be smeared like Bennett, and very strong with the Likud politicos.

[CumbrianLefty]

This is becoming hilarious

We asked?

Who is we? Are you Israeli? I thought you were Canadian.

And yeah four elections in two years is pretty hilarious. Just more proof that Israel is a dysfunctional, failed democracy.

The big question is, I suppose, how much of that is down to the malign influence of one man.

Some, but I suspect far from all.

[jaymichaud]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

Meretz won’t back Sa’ar.

[jaichind]

So which of the non-Likud non-JL parties might support a Gideon Sa'ar government to lock out Netanyahu post election ? YA ? YB ? Yamina?   I think he will need all of them unless Shas or UTJ break ranks.

[Hnv1]

In which bloc is gonna play  "New Hope"?

The Israeli one. I highly highly doubt Sa’ar will join any Bibi coalition. He’ll probably be the PM candidate for anyone not with Bibi/JL

Meretz won’t back Sa’ar.

They won’t vote against his government in a confidence vote.

That is if Meretz even runs alone which is unlikely

[Hnv1]

Peretz announces he won’t seek re-election as Labour’s leader in the imminent convention primaries. I assume Michaeli and Shmuli will run against each other, maybe some Omer Bar Lev type, or Huldai to save the logistical hassle as he’s already a Labour member. Nissenkorn was also a Labour member once...

Peretz will seek the presidency in April I suppose and if that fails he’ll leave politics.

[Hnv1]

Now this I didn’t see! Zeev Elkin is leaving Likud for Sa’ar! That’s a massive blow to Bibi (not electorally). Elkin and Levine were Bibi contractors and very important ground work in the Knesset and in coalition talks. Bibi just lost one of the only political competent allies he had

[Oryxslayer]

I assume just based on the current state of polling that the parties excluded from any Sa'ar, Yamina, other potential anti-Bibi govt are the JL, Shaas, UTJ, and Likud. That gives a bit of wiggle room, less if you think Sa'ar would rather work with Arab confidence than Yamina, or if Yamina will fall behind Bibi. Of course, if, and its a big if, a anti-bibi govt begins to form then theres a good chance a bunch of Likudniks jump ship to keep access to power since its Sa'ar who would likely be leading.

[Hnv1]

Shelah is leaving YA and starting a new party with the independents (i.e., the self employed). Not sure what his end game here is honestly. Bargaining power with Huldai?
Shelah is very intelligent, but sometimes over intelligent and over does it in politics.

[Velasco]

What's the stance of Gideon Sa'ar and his new secular conservative party with regards the annexation of (large swathes of) the West Bank? It's clear that Bibi prefers buying time and status quo, as the deal with the UAE demonstrates and regardless his campaign promises. But the far-right settlers must be very displeased and their seats could be neccessary to forge a new majority...

[Hnv1]

What's the stance of Gideon Sa'ar and his new secular conservative party with regards the annexation of (large swathes of) the West Bank? It's clear that Bibi prefers buying time and status quo, as the deal with the UAE demonstrates and regardless his campaign promises. But the far-right settlers must be very displeased and their seats could be neccessary to forge a new majority...

Pro annexation, not unlike Bennet or the Likud.

I think Bibi genuinely wanted to annex something but Gantz and Ashkenazi did swift moves in DC to prevent it. he won't do so with a dem president the white house

[warandwar]

Shelah is leaving YA and starting a new party with the independents (i.e., the self employed). Not sure what his end game here is honestly. Bargaining power with Huldai?
Shelah is very intelligent, but sometimes over intelligent and over does it in politics.

Pretty impressive how Yesh Atid basically hasn't split until now. How long is Lapid going to stay in politics?

[Hnv1]

Well Uvda (the top Israeli TV investigative journalism programme) did a very very unflattering piece of Gantz today. From his misconduct with Iran hacking his phone to implicit allegations to sexual scandals.

He’s finished. B&W will not run under him.