Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[America Needs R'hllor]

The news in the Jewish Home is great news for Bibi. The party of fascist religious nuts & nazis will definitely join his government.

[Hnv1]

The news in the Jewish Home is great news for Bibi. The party of fascist religious nuts & nazis will definitely join his government.

Yes, though he should thank the Haredi for it. It's not Bibi they want it's the Haredi in a conservative alliance

[America Needs R'hllor]

The news in the Jewish Home is great news for Bibi. The party of fascist religious nuts & nazis will definitely join his government.

Yes, though he should thank the Haredi for it. It's not Bibi they want it's the Haredi in a conservative alliance

Some part of me wants to see a government of Bibi-Haredim-Smotrich-Otzma supported from outside by Ra'am. Would be interesting to see how the still overwhelmingly pro secular public reacts to what this deeply conservative government does.

[CumbrianLefty]

Gotta respect Michaeli. This woman clawed her way through a ton of resistance. She's likely to be the last Labour leader, though

Surely her main priority should be to formally wind the party up as a separate concern.

[Hnv1]

Gotta respect Michaeli. This woman clawed her way through a ton of resistance. She's likely to be the last Labour leader, though

Surely her main priority should be to formally wind the party up as a separate concern.

Her main opponent is some betting magnet Peretz is running against her in order to control the assets.

I think she know the party is dead and will have to be immersed in some new political movement. Wind up of the party and its assets could take years though, the legal complexities are simply massive.

[Hnv1]

Zalicha currently polling 1% under the threshold rules out joining forces with anybody. His rationale is clearC only as an independent party leader can he get the chancellor position in coalition talks. But he risks losing ground if he doesn’t start pushing above the threshold in polls.


The Huldai/Labour/Shelah/Telem problem remains unsolved. At least with Shelah I can be confident he drops out if he sees it won’t work

[Hnv1]

Sunday funday:
Sami Abu Shada was elected chairman of Balad yesterday ousting current Mtanas Shada (no family connection don't be awkward). The latter will not be a part of the Balad list in any constellation then. Abu Shada was an MK, moderate figure, liberal and sat in Huldai's coalition when he was a councilman in Tel Aviv. Balad moved in 5 years from being ultra-radical to being the Arab Meretz and in some sense less radical than current Hadash makeup.
JL heads will meet today to decide on how they will run

Labour like the Roman Empire whose institutions carried on a century after it fell will hold the leadership primaries today. There are still 38k members but I'll be shocked if turnout will be higher than 20%. Michaeli is the favorite, Peretz is running this gambling magnet for the assets, the rest of the contenders are basically anonymous part for maybe Gil Beilin (son of). A swift merger with Huldai is expected. 

[America Needs R'hllor]

Apparently some voter suppression in the Labour primary, trying to rig it against Michaeli. Doubt it works

[Hnv1]

Apparently some voter suppression in the Labour primary, trying to rig it against Michaeli. Doubt it works

The existence of voter suppression suggests the existence of voters which is quite staggering if true.

Results in less than an hour

[America Needs R'hllor]

Merav won 77%-19%

[Hnv1]

Merav won 77%-19%

Can’t see the turnout anywhere

Edit: turnout was 26%! LoL

[jaymichaud]

Ch.13 poll:
Likud - 32
Yesh Atid - 18
New Hope - 14
Joint List - 10
Yamina - 10
UTJ - 7
YB - 6
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
B&W - 4
Israelim - 4
LABOUR - 4

[Hnv1]

Ch.13 poll:
Likud - 32
Yesh Atid - 18
New Hope - 14
Joint List - 10
Yamina - 10
UTJ - 7
YB - 6
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
B&W - 4
Israelim - 4
LABOUR - 4

Number 1 rule for Israeli polling: your first number will be your best, from there it's downhill (part for Likud)

[Zinneke]

Whats Stav Shaffir doing these days?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Whats Stav Shaffir doing these days?

Just vibin'
Probably not going to run. She's probably checking her name for Tel Aviv Mayor though.

(part for Likud)

[Coldstream]

Huldai and Michaeli disagree about who should lead the centre left list. Hopefully they work something out:

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/new-labor-leader-merav-michaeli-removing-labor-from-government-656593

[Hnv1]

Whats Stav Shaffir doing these days?

Taking the piss of Shmuli on Twitter. Pretty funny, she became sassy like Zehava Galon quite young

[Hnv1]

Huldai and Michaeli disagree about who should lead the centre left list. Hopefully they work something out:

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/new-labor-leader-merav-michaeli-removing-labor-from-government-656593

Well, Huldai is losing momentum fast, and sadly for him being 2nd isn't an option after leaving his little kingdom "to be PM".

Michaeli is doing some savvy moves atm, opened the Labour primaries for everybody to vote and join (the list looks to be quite to the left), and signaling rejuvenated spirit. She also instructs Shmuli and Peretz to resign from the government (which is good publicity but completely dumb as it's an interim government and she can't force anything on them).

This circle needs to be squared within a week

[America Needs R'hllor]

New poll:
Likud 29
Yesh Atid 16
New Hope 15
Yamina 14
Joint List 10
UTJ 8
Shas 8
YB 7
Meretz 5
KL 4
Labour 4
Zalicha 0 (2.8%)
ISRAELIS 0 (2.7%)
Smotrich 2.2%
Otzma 2.1%
Ale Yarok (?) 0.6%
Yatom 0.5%
Shelah 0.4%
JH 0.3%
Telem 0.3%
Gesher 0%

*If Smotrich unites with Jewish Home and the nazis he passes with 5, Likud loses 2, Bennet loses 2, Sa'ar loses 1
*If Huldai and Michaeli unite they get 7, YA loses 2, Meretz loses 1
*If Lapid and Huldai unite they get 18, YB loses 1 and Meretz loses 1
* 61% want a Haredi-less government, 22% want with

If this continues there's no reason for Michaeli to let Huldai be #1

[Coldstream]

Who are the ~2.5% of Israeli voters voting for the New Economic Party?

[jaymichaud]

"Meteor guided personally by Yisrael Katz destroys the city of Beersheva and surrounding area, sending up plume of dust that will obscure sun, dooming agriculture for 100 years"

Likud: 32

[Hnv1]

Who are the ~2.5% of Israeli voters voting for the New Economic Party?

I also wondered. From a quick research I see some young confused people who liked him in “the silver plate” and don’t care much more for politics. A myriad of boomers who think he sounds like someone who can “fix the economy”. The idiots who religiously opposed the Natural Gas production. Seemed certain to waste 80K votes but he seems to be drawing former Kulanu voters as well

[palandio]

[...]
*If Smotrich unites with Jewish Home and the nazis he passes with 5, Likud loses 2, Bennet loses 2, Sa'ar loses 1
*If Huldai and Michaeli unite they get 7, YA loses 2, Meretz loses 1
*If Lapid and Huldai unite they get 18, YB loses 1 and Meretz loses 1
[...]

These scenario numbers look made up. How can it be that only parties from the same area of the political spectrum lose seats if there are less votes wasted?

E.g. the votes of Smotrich, JH and OY together are worth 5 seats.
If they unite and everything else stays the same, then these 5 seats would come from across the spectrum.
If they unite and manage to attract additional votes from e.g. Yamina, then they get more than 5 seats.

The votes of Labor and Huldai together are worth 7-8 seats.
If they unite and everything stays the same, then these 3-4 additional seats would come from across the spectrum.
If instead they manage to attract additional votes from e.g. YA, then they get more than just 7 seats.

It just doesn't add up.

[Hnv1]

Smotric added the Sydney Powell of Israel in Simcha Rotman to his list. I am going to make a careful prediction: mergers or not I don't think Smotric is going to pass the threshold.

Joint List is officially breaking up. now it remains to be seen whether it will Ra'am alone and Hadash-Taal-Balad or some other formation.

Labour list primaries on Sunday. expect a very lefty list by Labour standards

[danny]

Smotric added the Sydney Powell of Israel in Simcha Rotman to his list. I am going to make a careful prediction: mergers or not I don't think Smotric is going to pass the threshold.

This is a lazy forced comparison to American politics. Rotman has a different opinion than the supreme court regarding the role of the judiciary, he hasn't petitioned the supreme court to cancel the results of elections based on internet conspiracies.