Which riding will be _____ party's best in the upcoming Canadian election?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Inspired by a similar thread for France in 2017, I invite you to predict each party's best riding.


Ones I can think of (please say if I'm being silly):

NDP - Vancouver East
CPC - simple inductive reasoning would suggest Battle River Crowfoot, though I have a feeling it may not hold true
PPC - Beauce

[Astatine]

Greens: Saanich—Gulf Islands

[King of Kensington]

Liberals:  Scarborough-Rouge Park

[MaxQue]

As everybody contributed the bast result of 2019 for each party so far, I'm going to add that the best BQ result was in Joliette.

[King of Kensington]

It may seem "lazy" but I stand by Scarborough-Rouge Park for the Liberals (though it could be neighboring Scarb-Guildwood or maybe something like Etobicoke North - but it won't be in Atlantic Canada this time!).

Scarborough-Rouge Park is majority non-Chinese VM (mostly South Asian and Black) and also has a weak federal NDP base. It's demographically very much a "Justin Trudeau" riding.

[beesley]

I'd go with Saint Leonard-Saint Michel for the Liberals. There is no Hassan Guillet this time, plus it makes logical sense.

The others:

CPC - Who knows, but Battle River-Crowfoot seems the safest bet.
NDP - Vancouver East
BQ - Joliette
Green - Saanich-Gulf Islands
PPC - Beauce, but by far less of a margin than before

[King of Kensington]

As to top Conservative, I suppose a look at Buffalo Party and Wildrose results may give a hint in terms of the degree to which individual Conservative ridings in rural Alberta and Saskatchewan are particularly likely to see significant leakage on the right.  But I think backlash against "that damn eastern bastard O'Toole and his carbon tax" will turn out to be pretty minimal on election day so not sure how much the order shifts.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

LPC: Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel
CPC: Could be any of a handful of rural Alberta ridings. Like others I'll go for Battle River-Crowfoot just based on past results
NDP: Vancouver East
BQ: Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel
GPC: Saanich-Gulf Islands
PPC: Beauce
Maverick: Fort McMurray-Cold Lake

[Geoffrey Howe]

As to top Conservative, I suppose a look at Buffalo Party and Wildrose results may give a hint in terms of the degree to which individual Conservative ridings in rural Alberta and Saskatchewan are particularly likely to see significant leakage on the right.  But I think backlash against "that damn eastern bastard O'Toole and his carbon tax" will turn out to be pretty minimal on election day so not sure how much the order shifts.

Battle River-Crowfoot had its best Tory result in 2019, interestingly. It may well have peaked; after all, it was it its most Tory when the country was decidedly not. In 1984, when Mulroney got an absolute majority of the popular vote, its partial predecessor Crowfoot was only at 78% Tory, compared to 85% in 2019. In this seat Reform+PC got in the high 80s not long afterwards.

Insofar as it moves at all (we are talking about a few points here and there I think), I doubt it is likely to go in the same direction as the rest of Canada. That said, I can't say which alternative is more likely.

[adma]

Battle River-Crowfoot had its best Tory result in 2019, interestingly. It may well have peaked; after all, it was it its most Tory when the country was decidedly not. In 1984, when Mulroney got an absolute majority of the popular vote, its partial predecessor Crowfoot was only at 78% Tory, compared to 85% in 2019. In this seat Reform+PC got in the high 80s not long afterwards.

Insofar as it moves at all (we are talking about a few points here and there I think), I doubt it is likely to go in the same direction as the rest of Canada. That said, I can't say which alternative is more likely.

Remember that a *whole lot of* Prairie Conservative results were best-ever under Scheer in '19; there was never such a flurry of high 70s and 80s shares, not even under Harper.  And if things seemed "only" 78% or so-and-so in the Mulroney era, it's because even then, voting in the Prairies wasn't so sectionalized as it became more recently--so a faint echo of how the NDP and even the Libs were far more viable in rural ManSask than they are in the present.  (And even in '84, splitting on the right happened; there were Confederation of Regions and Socred canidates in Crowfoot that year.)

So it's when the right fractures that Crowfoot falls off its best-Con high horse--national trends only determine how nuclear the victory for that united vote is.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, the best Green result isn't hard to predict is it.