How would CDU/CSU be doing in the polls right now with a different Chancellor candidate?

[Astatine]

They're stuck at 22-25 % now, only narrowly ahead of Greens and SPD and way below their 2017 result (32.9%) which had already been their second worst in history.

[mileslunn]

I think probably better as didn't Laschet get hurt when he was caught laughing during the floods.  Those kind of images don't tend to help although possible asides Merkel one of the others would have done something stupid.  Pretty sure Merkel would be in the high 20s and solidly in lead but not high enough for any two party coalition to be viable.

[Middle-aged Europe]

At this point I'd say that probably everyone on that list would have done at least slightly better, but only with Merkel and Söder doing significantly better.

By now, Laschet has turned out to be a gaffe machine and a political opportunist without any convictions of his own. This Monday he said with regards to the situation in Afghanistan that "2015 must not repeat itself". After this was met with widespread criticism as to why this his top priority in the current situation he quickly switched it to explicitly giving his GUARANTEE that he's going to get ALL former Afghan employees of German agencies out of there, plus human and womens' rights activists as well as journalists (Merkel's more honest stance on the issue is: yes, but unfortunately this is no longer completely in our hands).

Not that Söder is necessarily much different in that regard, but at least he executes his opportunism more competently and with greater instinct. Merz has the tendency to shoot himself in the foot by saying things that had been part of the (conservative) political mainstream about twenty years ago, but at least this is balanced out a bit by said statements being popular among the CDU's right flank. Laschet's doctrine of "what convictions shall I hold today?" is popular with no one anymore, because everyone knows it's a fake.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Laschet is the Peter-principle in action: He was somewhat competent as a state minister in North-Rhine Westphalia, became leader of the opposition, and then, more or less by luck, was elected prime minister. Laschet had decent approval ratings in NRW before becoming leader of the CDU, but getting involved in federal politics was one step too far for him. The result of this over-promotion is painfully visible right now.

[Astatine]

This post could've been written 1:1 in February 2020:

AKK is the Peter-principle in action: She was somewhat competent as a state minister in Saarland, became prime minister, and then, more or less by luck, was re-elected twice. AKK had very decent approval ratings in Saarland before becoming leader of the CDU, but getting involved in federal politics was one step too far for her. The result of this over-promotion is painfully visible right now.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

This post could've been written 1:1 in February 2020:

AKK is the Peter-principle in action: She was somewhat competent as a state minister in Saarland, became prime minister, and then, more or less by luck, was re-elected twice. AKK had very decent approval ratings in Saarland before becoming leader of the CDU, but getting involved in federal politics was one step too far for her. The result of this over-promotion is painfully visible right now.

That is true. AKK should have had the advantage of having gained some experience in federal politics as general secretary of the CDU, which she was for a brief time. Laschet's and AKK's prior experience, with both having been prime ministers, is different though. While NRW is economically, demographically comparable to a small country, being prime minister of Saarland really is only a sophisticated title for something that could be a Landrat or a mayor.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Söder would probably do better. Merkel would at least do better in a vacuum. But if she wouldn't have announced to stand down at the heigth of Merkel fatigue (most of that in her own party while many from center to left thaught "well, it could be worse") there could be another trajectory. Merz would probably get some votes that are parked at the FDP or at the AfD (at least in the West), but could alienate the center so I don't know, how that would turn out. Röttgen is an interesting case, as he is some kind of a contiunation of Merkel, but probably not as gaffe prone as Laschet or his female doppelganger AKK. Spahn could be doing worse as he came under fire for the coronavirus response in the last months.

[Lechasseur]

AKK and Spahn would be doing the same or worse than Laschet.

Everyone else would be doing better than him imo.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing is that though there is little doubt that Laschet is a disaster, he is not a singular disaster: almost all of his negatives - right down to his oafish conduct in public - are shared by most of the other senior politicians in the CDU and also in the CSU.

[Lechasseur]

The thing is that though there is little doubt that Laschet is a disaster, he is not a singular disaster: almost all of his negatives - right down to his oafish conduct in public - are shared by most of the other senior politicians in the CDU and also in the CSU.

The big thing is neither centrists nor conservatives seem to like him.

Everyone mentioned in the poll except AKK and Spahn imo would be doing better with at least one of those two groups.