Which Obama win was more surprising to you?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Xing]

Both were modestly surprising at the time, but I'll go with Indiana, especially given how both went in 2012 and beyond.

[TDAS04]

Indiana.  NE-02 is the type of educated, urban/suburban district Obama should thrive in.

It’s a bit astonishing that NE-02 was so Republican before 2008, since it’s anchored by a city as large as Omaha.  I mean, it voted for Bush in 2004 by more than the entire state of South Dakota!  

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It’s a bit astonishing that NE-02 was so Republican before 2008, since it’s anchored by a city as large as Omaha.  I mean, it voted for Bush in 2004 by more than the entire state of South Dakota!

And that's where the formulation of my question seems to be flawed. 😕
In hindsight, a sharp shift towards Obama seemed more consequential in NE-02 than in Indiana, particularly in the long view.

If you, however, take a look at the 2008 Atlas prediction statistics, more members believed in a party switch in Indiana (17.25%) than in NE-02 (5.03%) - contrary to the interim result of my poll.
Back then, them Hoosiers were obviously deemed more liberal and willing to change sides than them Omahans.
Even the 2004 United States presidential election results yielded a corresponding prognostication; Bush had won Nebraska's district by 21.7%, Indiana by "merely" 20.7%. Consequently, an Obama victory in Indiana seemed a tad more probable.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s a bit astonishing that NE-02 was so Republican before 2008, since it’s anchored by a city as large as Omaha.  I mean, it voted for Bush in 2004 by more than the entire state of South Dakota!

Even the 2004 United States presidential election results yielded a corresponding prognostication; Bush had won Nebraska's district by 21.7%, Indiana by "merely" 20.7%. Consequently, an Obama victory in Indiana seemed a tad more probable.

I disagree, as its easier to see a large swing in a district than a state.

[Spark]

Indiana.  NE-02 is the type of educated, urban/suburban district Obama should thrive in.

It’s a bit astonishing that NE-02 was so Republican before 2008, since it’s anchored by a city as large as Omaha.  I mean, it voted for Bush in 2004 by more than the entire state of South Dakota!  

[Chips]

Nebraska's 2nd at the time, Indiana with hindsight.

[SInNYC]

IN both then and now.
To me, states like NE can be receptive to the left (which is what Obama was seen as) if the left is more populist and less about identity. NE's neighbors like the Dakotas and IA all had plenty of D successes before Ds decided to shun rural voters. But IN is a state that was populated by white southern emigrants, and I didnt see them voting for Obama. And I'm not even accounting for the rural/urban mixes above.