Slovenia Politics Megathread

[Astatine]

Slovenia's incumbent government, led by right-wing nationalist conservative PM (the one who congratulated Trump) Janez Janša, lost its majority and might face a no-confidence vote.

All the government changes in the last 15 years (Parties: SDS - national conservative, SD - social democratic, NSi - christian democrat, LDS - liberal, Zares - liberal, GVL - liberal, PS - liberal, SMC - liberal, SAB - liberal, LMŠ - liberal, DeSUS - Pensioners' interests, SLS - conservative, SNS - nationalist, Levica - left).  

2008: Borut Pahor (SD, LDS, Zares, DeSUS) wins elections against incumbent PM Janez Janša (SDS, NSi, DeSUS, SLS)

2011: snap elections after no-confidence vote after Zares and DeSUS left government, Zoran Janković set to become PM of a PS, SD, GVL, DeSUS coalition

2012: GVL withdraw support of coalition that had not installed Janković yet, Janez Janša (SDS, NSi, GVL, DeSUS, SLS) becomes PM

2013: DeSUS and GVL leave the coalition, a no-confidence vote results in a government led by Alenka Bratušek (PS, SD, GVL, DeSUS)

2014: Bratušek resigns after PS ousts her as leader, subsequently she founds her own party SAB and continues to govern under an interim basis with snap elections called, resulting in Miro Cerar (SMS, DeSUS, SD) becoming PM

2018: Cerar resigns and loses snap elections, Marjan Šarec (LMŠ, SMC, SD, DeSUS, SAB, support by Levica) becomes PM

2020 (March): Levica withdraws their support of Šarec, who resigns to force snap election, his former coalition partner switch sides and bring Janez Janša (SDS, SMC, DeSUS, NSi, support by SNS) back to office

Now, DeSUS has left the government due to disagreements over healthcare policies, leaving the government with 43 seats (out of 90). SNS support (3 seats) would bring it to the necessary 46 seats (+2 national minority seats), but the opposition united under the banner of the "KUL" coalition, and they hope to get the support of some SMC MPs, as the party is completely disoriented and will likely not get into Parliament next time. The KUL coalition would likely elect DeSUS leader Karl Erjevac as PM.

(Btw, Slovenia's government appointees get confirmed similar to the US system.)

[Astatine]

A motion of no confidence was filed for 15 January, supported by DeSUS, LMŠ, SD and SAB, with Levica yet to announce whether they will support Karl Erjevac as PM. All "KUL coalition" MPs combined make up 43 seats. As of now, it seems rather unlikely that Janša will be voted out, but it is rumored that there are several SDS and SMC MPs that are dissatisfied with the government.

[Astatine]

Slovenia's incumbent government, led by right-wing nationalist conservative PM (the one who congratulated Trump) Janez Janša, lost its majority and might face a no-confidence vote.

All the government changes in the last 15 years (Parties: SDS - national conservative, SD - social democratic, NSi - christian democrat, LDS - liberal, Zares - liberal, GVL - liberal, PS - liberal, SMC - liberal, SAB - liberal, LMŠ - liberal, DeSUS - Pensioners' interests, SLS - conservative, SNS - nationalist, Levica - left).  

Why?

Late, but most of those are personalist parties based around a single person, at least the ones that ran in 2018. The parties that contested the 2018 election of those include:

SMC: Modern Centre Party; but formerly called "Party of Milo Cerar"
SAB: Party of Alenka Bratušek, formerly the Alliance of Alenka Bratušek
LMS: List of Marjan Šarec

Yeah, same goes for Positive Slovenia (PS), that was a personality cult around Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković and GVL (Gregor Virant's List).

Most of those parties usually get slaughtered after one or two parliamentary terms (Zares, GVL, PS were wiped out after one term in Parliament, SMC is set to disappear after two), we'll yet have to see what happens to LMS and SAB.

[Astatine]

Karl Erjavec announced today he has collected 43 signatures from MPs - But that was expected anyway. He still needs 3 more votes, and as the SMC leadership constantly renounces the possibility of supporting the KUL coalition, it seems more and more unlikely that the motion will pass. SMC still hints that they want to cooperate with KUL for electoral lists (well, that is what parties polling at 0.1 % do), but unless they resign from the government, I see no chance for that.

Meanwhile, Erjavec' personal approval numbers plummeted sharply and now he's ranked least popular politician of Slovenia.

[Astatine]

Why Erjavec for PM anyway? DeSUS is polling below the threshold on the latest poll.

He basically made the motion possible as he backed the decision for DeSUS to leave the government, so he's the most formidable compromise candidate. Plus, at least until recently, he was relatively popular.
It's comparable to the PM of Latvia being a member of Vienotība, which is the smallest party in a broad coalition: It's simply the candidate an ideologically diverse coalition of parties could agree on. And he served in governmental positions several times before.

The Left's candidate Luka Mesec would not be acceptable to the center parties as PM, I might assume Šarec could be held responsible for having tried to force snap elections last year, Tanja Fajon of SD doesn't strike as most experienced candidate (she is just a MEP as far as I can recall) and Alenka Bratušek carries to much baggage.
Additionally, Erjavec as member of the Pensioners' Party that basically governed with every other party before is the candidate most likely to draw support from government defectors.

I wouldn't read too much into the polling numbers, Slovenia's parties constantly experience ups and downs. For instance, SAB polled constantly below 4 % for four years until the 2018 elections, when they gained momentum at the exact right time just ahead of the vote and made it into Parliament with slight gains. Slovene polls always have a high number of undecideds and non-voters, it is really annoying the overview in Wikipedia doesn't include the 'party only' numbers.

[Astatine]

Created this little diagram just to visualize how volatile Slovenia's party system is. Background color indicates the Prime Minister's party (grey: SKD, light blue: LDS, green/grey: SLS/NSi, yellow: SDS, red: SD, green/blue: PS/SAB, dark blue: SMC; have to add the new governments since 2018).

[Astatine]

I wouldn't read too much into the polling numbers, Slovenia's parties constantly experience ups and downs. For instance, SAB polled constantly below 4 % for four years until the 2018 elections, when they gained momentum at the exact right time just ahead of the vote and made it into Parliament with slight gains. Slovene polls always have a high number of undecideds and non-voters, it is really annoying the overview in Wikipedia doesn't include the 'party only' numbers.

Which is largely a reflection of the fact that only the SDS (by which we mean Janša) seems to have a significantly-sized firm core vote. It's all a bit Israeli.

And from what I read somewhere (not sure how accurate it was tho), it's for similar reasons - the society is split into two camps, there isn't a lot of voter movement within one of them or between them, but the other one is very volatile. Astatine is the resident Balkans expert here, so he'll hopefully correct me, but apparently there's a divide within Slovenian society that goes back to WW2, where people who would've supported partisans vote for liberals/left and četnik apologists vote for SDS/right.

Yeah, if you take a look at the graph, you'll see that the support for SDS+SLS+SKD/NSi+SNS is more or less stable, same goes for the broad variety of center-left parties. There is no true "centrist" bloc, although some parties attempted to opt for cooperation with both "blocs" - And failed miserably (Gregor Virant's Civic List being the most recent example, and SMC is 100 % going that way too). DeSUS is the only party that is kind of detached from this division into camps, possibly because they are ought to represent pensioners' interests only ("Who cares with whom DeSUS allies, as long as they bring pension increases to me!!").

I am not that much into pre-90s politics in Slovenia, so I'm not sure, but this sounds like a legitimate point and is the most likely cause for Slovenia's "bloc division".

[Astatine]

Created a "bloc"-only graph, where you can see how stable both camps have been in their support  (I excluded DeSUS, GVL and a party called SMS from early 2000's as they don't fit into the camp scheme). The center-left has beaten the center-right in every single election since 2008, but was ousted from government twice nonetheless: In 2011, because the center-right managed to form a government with the "non-bloc" parties GVL and DeSUS, bringing them to over 50 %, and in 2020, due to SMC switching sides from center-left to center-right (that basically exchanged the cumulated support for the respective bloc parties, center-left from 50 to 40 % and center-right from 40 to 50 %).

[Astatine]

The vote on the motion (filed on Friday) will take place tomorrow, but the opposition already had to experience some backlashes:

- Out of the 43 MPs of KUL+DeSUS, only 42 MPs supported the motion with their signature. One DeSUS MP announced he would not publicly state how he intends to vote.

- Of the remaining 42 MPs, Social Democrat Matja Han has tested positive for Covid-19. That means she has to self-isolate, and I am not sure about procedures regarding pairing or "substitute MPs" in the Slovenian Parliament.

- SMC MPs have received numerous threats (allegedly by left-wing activists) to pressure them into voting against Janša. Apparently, posters comparing them to Nazis (disgusting and uncalled for) and caricaturing a merger of the SDS/SMC logos (hilarious) have been hung up in various towns, although I don't know to which extent. Opposition politicians denounced the actions.



The vote will be a secret vote. I'd rate the motion as Lean/Likely Janša as of now.

[Astatine]

Did Janša ever retract his congratulations to Trump?

Some days after the election was officially called, he stated in Parliament that he offers his congratulations to whomever won. But unlike President Borut Pahor, he never formally congratulated Biden, as far as I know.

[Astatine]

With the Covid infection of an opposition MP, Erjavec temporarily withdrew the motion. As of now, Erjavec plans to file it again as soon as all MPs can attend the vote.

Government members ridiculed the KUL coalition for that, and the SMC leader has called on the coalition to nominate Marjan Šarec instead of Erjavec, since the latter could not get elected to Parliament in 2018 (which is kind of embarrassing for someone who wants to become PM).

I doubt Erjavec' numerous flip-flops will help him, his approval ratings already dropped significantly over the recent weeks.

[Astatine]

Why is Slovenia so determined to make its western neighbour's political system (pretty volatile and with a multitude of parties) look like the USA in comparison?

Oh well, Janša is just the tip of the iceberg of Slovenia's ridiculous political landscape.

Alenka Bratušek is a prime example for a joke politician.
She got elected over the Positive Slovenia list in 2011 (after two failed attempts over LDS and Zares), was just a mere backbencher and happened to become... Prime Minister by accident. King Zoran I. of Ljubljana was busy being involved in shady corruption schemes, so Bratušek took over as interim party leader... And then, the 2013 motion of no confidence against Janša passed, and as leader of the largest party, she had to take office.

Her tenure as PM was not the worst that could happen to Slovenia, although she was often mocked for things like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwim7J5eEsM.
Zoran Jankovic´then ousted her as party leader, and she subsequently resigned, earning 4.x % with her ZaAB party (Alliance of Alenka Bratušek, but also a pun, as "za" means "for" in Slovene). Her time as caretaker PM until Miro Cerar would take office was definitely the most ridiculous part of her premiership: Cerar was already elected PM, but Bratušek's government still had to file a nominee for the Juncker commission. And because she was not really into being the caucus leader of one of Slovenia's liberal parties that would disappear after one term, she decided to nominate the most competent candidate she could think of for the Vice Presidency of the European Commission... herself (This gives Dick Cheney vibes) - and two candidates who would become party leaders later on, Karl Erjavec and Tanja Fajon. Several MEPs complained that the decision was anti-democratic.

The thing is, her caretaker government was not even unanimously in favor of nominating her. I believe it was a 5-4 vote or so, including her own.
She was literally grilled in Parliament for being incompetent (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yjwnv7T7OTI), so she withdrew her candidacy and complained in a German newspaper that the questions she faced (like every nominee?) were unfair and biased against her.
She was charged with corruption for this nomination, but the charges were ultimately dismissed. Her reputation remained damaged, and 2 of her 3 colleagues of "ZaAB" decided they'd be better of "Brez AB", leading to the dissolution of the party caucus. The party couldn't even be measured in polling for 2 years.

Still, she successfully redeemed and rebranded herself (now her party is called SAB) with SMC' collapse and strong debate performances, getting reelected into Parl... o wait no, her party made it, but she didn't, as the complicated electoral system led to her losing her seat. So she was not only clueless, but also seatless. Her party went into the multicolored coalition, where she served as Deputy PM alongside her successor.
But with the center-left coalition resigning, she also lost that position and hopes to be serving in the next KUL government again. At least until the next European elections, maybe she can get a nice appointment again?

[Astatine]

That's almost.......breathtaking

For some of Bratušek's constituents, the most breathtaking thing about her are her legs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATNuNeJmu8k&lc=UggYFT9gQ4avp3gCoAEC

But yeah, I think I trashed her enough, she is still more successful and talented (as well as less corrupt) than most of her male counterparts. I mean, if SAB makes it into Parliament in the next elections, a curse for Slovenian liberal parties has officially been broken (excluding LDS).

Regarding the motion, SDS mocks the KUL coalition for halting the vote until all MPs can be present and demands the motion be held asap.


("Freedom for Janša")

The hypocrisy...
This is the same party that protested in 2014 that Janša - who was in jail at that time for corruption - could not participate in a parliamentary vote. In the end, it was ordered that he had to be released for the vote and was brought back to jail afterwards, but yeah...

Bratušek is so much more preferable to Janša, who isn't even worth trashing. The list of his wrongdoings would be too long.

[Astatine]

Janša finally congratulated Biden!

https://twitter.com/JJansaSDS/status/1352011900868055040

[Astatine]

The first poll after the suspension of the motion. Erjavec remains the most unpopular politician, but Janša's government has a net approval of -24.

Party vote:

SDS: 26.2
SD: 13.9
LMS: 13.6
Levica: 10.7
NSi: 7.7
SAB: 6.3
DeSUS: 3.9
SNS: 3.7
SLS: 2.9
Greens: 2.7
Pirates: 2.6
SMC: 2.2

If there is no vote on the motion this week, it will be dismissed and Erjavec has to collect the signatures again to submit them.

Btw, it appears as if there is one possible defector from the SMC side. Caucus leader Janja Sluga was extremely moderate in her criticism of the motion, citing that she actually believed that the motion was suspended due to the absence of quarantined MPs (while other government members mocked the KUL coalition). Sluga also appears to have good contacts to SAB and LMS, so there is rumors she might vote in favor of the motion (in exchange, she might get a good spot on SAB or LMS lists, as both are not unlikely to have more MPs after the next election - running for SMC seems to be hopeless anyways). Assuming that the one DeSUS MP who did not sign the list votes for the motion, that would bring the number of votes up to 44.

And here, the situation gets tricky. Both the Italian and Hungarian minority have one seat in Parliament, and both MPs made clear they don't want to be the kingmakers. They might very well end up in this kind of situation, and if they voted in favor of the motion (the vote is secret but the arithmetics don't add up otherwise), get ready for Janša's rant about how he was thrown from his throne by the "caviar left" and unelected minority MPs.

[Astatine]

Well, it seems like Slovenians still have appetite for ANOTHER centrist party, or rather an alliance. The chairman of the extra-parliamentary Green Party announced today that he intends to form an electoral alliance called "Unite Slovenia!". This was received positively by the chairman of the extra-parliamentary conservative Slovenian People's Party SLS, which failed to take the 4 percent threshold twice in a row (until 2014, it was the only party to be represented in Parliament from 1990 on, and it failed the hurdle by a few hundred votes in 2014 – 3.95 %). SLS has been an SDS ally ever since.

Speaking of SDS ally, SMC also seems to be interested in being part of this coalition, as well as former DeSUS leader Aleksandra Pivec, who defected from her party to continue supporting the right-wing government (and thinks about creating an own party as well). So we're not really talking about a "true" centrist coalition here, but rather about an alliance of dwarfs being strong enough to guarantee support for Janša, although I am not that sure about the Greens.

If we combine of all of the muHderate parties, we'd get 7.8 % according to the last poll. This project could work out for the next elections, but if there is a kind of split in the center-left and the right-wing camp just like in 2011/2018, this alliance might very well fall apart and be the Virant/SMC of the incoming election cycle.

[Astatine]

Well, it seems like Slovenians still have appetite for ANOTHER centrist party, or rather an alliance. The chairman of the extra-parliamentary Green Party announced today that he intends to form an electoral alliance called "Unite Slovenia!".

If you mean the one led by Andrej Čuš, he is, IIRC, the former chair of the SDS youth wing.

Well, that explains it, so it's pretty much another attempt to create a "centrist in name only" Janša satellite party, similar to NSLS pre 2018.

[Astatine]

Some new developments:

- The opposition is in favor of changing the Parliamentary Rules so secret votes can take place without MPs needing to be present in person. As this requires a 2/3 majority, very unlikely to pass.

- Formally, DeSUS left the coalition in December, but is still part of the government as the Minister for Agriculture as well as some Under-Secretaries did not resign from their position. Janša urges DeSUS to decide until Wednesday what they actually want (DeSUS intends to become a member of the informal KUL coalition), else, the DeSUS government members get fired.

- The opposition is preparing motions to oust several members of the government - Minister for Education Simona Kustec, Minister for Labour Janez Cigler Kralj and Minister for Culture Vasko Simoniti.

- Alenka Bratušek finally gets her seat in Parliament - For sad reasons tho. The leader of the SAB caucus, Franc Kramar, passed away today at age 60. RIP.

[Astatine]

And here we go again: A new motion to oust Janša has been filed by the KUL parties, this time supported by 10 MPs (2 from each party of the KUL coalition). The vote on the motion will likely take place on Monday.

[Astatine]

Aaaaand... the motion failed, with only 40 votes in favor, 7 votes against and 6 abstentions. The remaining 37 votes were not cast. Also kinda embarrassing that Erjavec was likely unable to convince the majority of his own party to vote in favor of the motion.

[Astatine]

Might be a stupid question, but what does KUL stand for?

Koalicija ustavnega loka = Coalition of the Constitutional arch

And KUL is also the Slovene pronunciation of "cool".

[Astatine]

Karl Erjavec is out! He resigned from his position as party chairman and left DeSUS as well to take a corporate job. Apparently DeSUS now reconsiders re-joining Janša's government. Big oof.

DeSUS has been a mess for some time now, the relationship between the party leadership and the parliamentary caucus has been tense for a while and polls indicate the party might go the way of SMC (which holds a congress soon to determine the future of their party leader).