Who will Joe Biden nominate if Breyer retires?
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  Who will Joe Biden nominate if Breyer retires?
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Author Topic: Who will Joe Biden nominate if Breyer retires?  (Read 842 times)
Kingpoleon
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« on: December 19, 2020, 01:17:21 PM »

I think Tamika Montgomery–Reeves and Fabiana Pierre-Louis are the most likely. They will likely get a District nomination or the Solicitor General position first, though. Assume a district judgeship or Circuit if not otherwise noted. Other picks:

Top tier:
Sri Srinivasan
Neal Katyal, Solicitor General
Manish S. Shah
Leondra Kruger, CA SC
Goodwin Liu, CA SC
Lucy Koh
Paul J. Watford
Amit Mehta, Judge
Rebecca Goodgame Ebinge, Judge
Alison Nathan
Jeffrey L. Fisher

Second tier:
Andrea Wood
Michelle Friedland
Kerry Abrams, Dean of Duke Law
Kenneth Polite Jr., U. S. Attorney
Brendan Johnson, U. S. Attorney
Gillian Lester, Dean of Columbia Law
Eduardo Peñalver, Dean of Cornell Law
Trevor Morrison, Dean of NY Law
Camille A. Nelson, Dean of Hawaii Law(first Jamaican Justice)

A compromise pick would probably be Tani Cantil-Sakauye, Brian Hagedorn, Kenji Price, Brynja McDivitt Booth, or Halil Suleyman Ozerden, who would be the first Muslim.

Less prominent potential names:
Gregg Costa
Sara Lynn Darrow
Kristine G. Baker
Brian Curtis Wimes
Nicole Mitchell
Robert J. Shelby
Clare E. Connors, HI AG
Tamara Ashford
Denise J. Casper
Abdul Kallon
Risa Goluboff, Dean of Virginia Law
Deepak Gupta, top SC lawyer
Jameel Jaffer, ACLU lawyer
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar (married to Lucy Koh), CA SC
Melissa Hart, Colorado SC
Danielle Gray(probably appointed to a lower court first), Obama advisor
Michelle Alexander, civil rights lawyer
Raheem L. Mullins, Connecticut SC
K. J. Wall, KS SC
Bridget McCormack, MI SC
C. Shannon Bacon, NM SC
Kerry Abrams, Dean of Duke Law
Jocelyn Benson, MI SOS and Dean of Wayne State Law
Leslie Abrams Gardner
I. Glenn Cohen, leading bioethicist lawyer(first gay Justice)
Christopher Garrett, OR SC
Adrienne Nelson, OR SC
Raquel Montoya-Lewis, WA SC
Zuberi Williams, MD Judge
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2020, 01:45:49 PM »

He has repeatedly said that he plans to nominate a Black woman, so that should really be a prerequisite for any list of potential suggestions. Ketanji Brown Jackson (who was on the Garland shortlist back in 2016) & Leondra Kruger will probably top the list.
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tosk
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2020, 08:01:08 PM »

He has repeatedly said that he plans to nominate a Black woman, so that should really be a prerequisite for any list of potential suggestions. Ketanji Brown Jackson (who was on the Garland shortlist back in 2016) & Leondra Kruger will probably top the list.

If I was on Biden's staff, these two would be immediate frontrunners. Both highly qualified, and very smart. Haven't heard of any other potential nominees that fit the black + female qualifications set out by Biden. At least, no others that are also young enough to serve for decades.

For anyone wondering Jackson is 50 and Kruger is 44.

Pierre-Louis and Montgomery–Reeves should get federal experience before they're nominated, Biden can't afford to get his first SCOTUS nominee held up.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2020, 08:54:40 PM »

He has repeatedly said that he plans to nominate a Black woman, so that should really be a prerequisite for any list of potential suggestions. Ketanji Brown Jackson (who was on the Garland shortlist back in 2016) & Leondra Kruger will probably top the list.

If I was on Biden's staff, these two would be immediate frontrunners. Both highly qualified, and very smart. Haven't heard of any other potential nominees that fit the black + female qualifications set out by Biden. At least, no others that are also young enough to serve for decades.

For anyone wondering Jackson is 50 and Kruger is 44.

Well, there are some others: Cheri Beasley (54) & Adrienne Nelson (53), for example. But yeah, not many.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2020, 09:06:50 PM »

He has repeatedly said that he plans to nominate a Black woman, so that should really be a prerequisite for any list of potential suggestions. Ketanji Brown Jackson (who was on the Garland shortlist back in 2016) & Leondra Kruger will probably top the list.

If I was on Biden's staff, these two would be immediate frontrunners. Both highly qualified, and very smart. Haven't heard of any other potential nominees that fit the black + female qualifications set out by Biden. At least, no others that are also young enough to serve for decades.

For anyone wondering Jackson is 50 and Kruger is 44.

Well, there are some others: Cheri Beasley (54) & Adrienne Nelson (53), for example. But yeah, not many.

Leah Ward Sears is another who could probably actually get past a Republican Senate
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2020, 10:32:09 PM »

If I was on Biden's staff, these two would be immediate frontrunners. Both highly qualified, and very smart. Haven't heard of any other potential nominees that fit the black + female qualifications set out by Biden. At least, no others that are also young enough to serve for decades.

For anyone wondering Jackson is 50 and Kruger is 44.

Pierre-Louis and Montgomery–Reeves should get federal experience before they're nominated, Biden can't afford to get his first SCOTUS nominee held up.
Tamara Ashford, Camille Nelson, Denise Casper, Leslie Abrams Gardner, and Montoya-Lewis, as well as the two you mentioned, are all at least close to as experienced as Leondra Kruger.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2020, 10:51:39 PM »

He has repeatedly said that he plans to nominate a Black woman, so that should really be a prerequisite for any list of potential suggestions. Ketanji Brown Jackson (who was on the Garland shortlist back in 2016) & Leondra Kruger will probably top the list.

If I was on Biden's staff, these two would be immediate frontrunners. Both highly qualified, and very smart. Haven't heard of any other potential nominees that fit the black + female qualifications set out by Biden. At least, no others that are also young enough to serve for decades.

For anyone wondering Jackson is 50 and Kruger is 44.

Well, there are some others: Cheri Beasley (54) & Adrienne Nelson (53), for example. But yeah, not many.

Leah Ward Sears is another who could probably actually get past a Republican Senate

The problem with her, of course, is that Biden's probably not nominating anybody over 55, let alone somebody who's 65.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2020, 11:50:48 PM »

Breyer is definitely retiring in the 2nd term, he doesn't wantta an R Prez replacement and Biden is definitely getting a 2nd term, with our Senate lineup
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tosk
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« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2020, 12:49:14 AM »

If I was on Biden's staff, these two would be immediate frontrunners. Both highly qualified, and very smart. Haven't heard of any other potential nominees that fit the black + female qualifications set out by Biden. At least, no others that are also young enough to serve for decades.

For anyone wondering Jackson is 50 and Kruger is 44.

Pierre-Louis and Montgomery–Reeves should get federal experience before they're nominated, Biden can't afford to get his first SCOTUS nominee held up.
Tamara Ashford, Camille Nelson, Denise Casper, Leslie Abrams Gardner, and Montoya-Lewis, as well as the two you mentioned, are all at least close to as experienced as Leondra Kruger.

I'd argue CA Supreme Court is a bigger job than most other state supreme courts, but I could be wrong on that
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2020, 01:37:10 PM »

He has repeatedly said that he plans to nominate a Black woman, so that should really be a prerequisite for any list of potential suggestions. Ketanji Brown Jackson (who was on the Garland shortlist back in 2016) & Leondra Kruger will probably top the list.

If I was on Biden's staff, these two would be immediate frontrunners. Both highly qualified, and very smart. Haven't heard of any other potential nominees that fit the black + female qualifications set out by Biden. At least, no others that are also young enough to serve for decades.

For anyone wondering Jackson is 50 and Kruger is 44.

Well, there are some others: Cheri Beasley (54) & Adrienne Nelson (53), for example. But yeah, not many.

Leah Ward Sears is another who could probably actually get past a Republican Senate

Yeah, there is no way any of the NC or PA Dem justices get to SCOTUS unless Dems win both Georgia seats, and even then I'm not sure.  McConnell likely knows it's strategically dumb to raise heck over seat #3 for the opposition, but he isn't going to let someone that partisan (or young) through. 

Watford seems like a good compromise pick as he has a moderate-ish record and is already in his 50's.   
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2020, 06:01:13 PM »

Yeah, there is no way any of the NC or PA Dem justices get to SCOTUS unless Dems win both Georgia seats, and even then I'm not sure.  McConnell likely knows it's strategically dumb to raise heck over seat #3 for the opposition, but he isn't going to let someone that partisan (or young) through. 

Watford seems like a good compromise pick as he has a moderate-ish record and is already in his 50's.   
Sri Srinivasan, Paul Watford, and Neal Katyal are the closest options for a traditional pick. A SDO style pick - designed for what boxes they check rather than their qualifications - is pretty unusual.
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Donerail
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« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2020, 08:46:06 PM »

Here's what I think a "Biden shortlist" would look like, assuming 1. he releases one in the next few weeks and 2. he sticks to his promise to nominate a black woman.

District Courts
  • Ketanji Brown Jackson (D. D.C.)
  • Leslie Abrams Gardner (M.D. Ga.)
  • Denise Casper (D. Mass.)
  • Andrea Wood (N.D. Ill.)
  • LaShann DeArcy Hall (E.D.N.Y.)
  • Tanya Chutkan (D. D.C.)
  • Wilhelmina Wright (D. Minn.)

State Supreme Courts
  • Leondra Kruger (Cal.)
  • Adrienne Nelson (Or.)
  • Cheri Beasley (N.C.)
  • Kimberly S. Budd (Mass.)

Litigators, politicians & academics
  • Sherrilyn Ifill, President of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund
  • Melissa Murray, Professor of Law, New York University
  • Danielle Holley-Walker, Dean of Howard University School of Law
  • Christina Swarns, Executive Director of the Innocence Project
  • Michelle Alexander, author and past director of the Civil Rights Clinic at Stanford Law School
  • Stacey Plaskett, Delegate to the U.S. House from the U.S. Virgin Islands

Of these, Kruger, Brown Jackson, and Abrams Gardner stand out as by far the most likely picks. I'd bet against Lynch being included on the shortlist, just because it might surface some controversy and I think Biden will be angling for the most moderate, low-profile list he can assemble (a nice counterpoint to whatever horrors will be on display in the confirmation hearings). The names in the top two categories are fairly limited by their membership, while the third is a bit more speculative, but I imagine he'll include a good mixture of figures from both the courts and the private sector (and Ifill, at least, is a lock to be considered).
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