GA-Wick polling- Perdue +4, Loeffler +2

[Matty]

https://medium.com/wick-research/ga-senate-runoff-poll-results-a6635c8cd3cf

[ProgressiveModerate]

Makes sense, though one thing I think these polls are missing is the notable 5%-7% of this electorate who did not vote in 2020. Who are these people and who are they leaning towards?

[brucejoel99]

With a sample of 1,500 LV, this poll is the largest poll to date for the GA runoffs.

Given that, not an ideal result.

[Matty]

With a sample of 1,500 LV, this poll is the largest poll to date for the GA runoffs.

Given that, not an ideal result.

Sample is +1.9 Biden too

[KaiserDave]

Not ideal but I don't care about polls in this race

[SnowLabrador]

I've never heard of this pollster, but all the polls seem to be saying the same thing, which is Perdue and Loeffler winning by 2-4 points. I guess Biden can forget about having Haaland as Interior Secretary.

[ElectionsGuy]

I actually think there's a good chance polls will be overestimating Republicans here because the people who won't vote because they think the GOP has betrayed them are the types that are very unlikely to respond to polls. They supposedly only represent 3% here and aren't disproportionately Republican. Hopefully the poll is right, and I don't say that necessarily because I want Republicans to win these, I say that from a hope that this toxicity in mindset is less than we're hearing and seeing.

[MT Treasurer]

The fools will suggest that this can be attributed to ‘nationalization’, ‘consolidation,’ and ‘energized base turnout,’ but nothing could be further from the truth: Polling has dramatically improved for Republicans since Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) decided to campaign for David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by joining the ‘Win Georgia, save America’ bus tour last week, privately let GA Republican officials and campaign strategists in on his foolproof mastermind strategy via Zoom, and shrewdly made his passionate plea and persuasive case to the people of Georgia on Fox and Friends Weekend on December 12, 2020. In fact, no poll since then has not shown Perdue and Loeffler ahead despite the fact that the vast majority of polls conducted before Senator Daines' involvement in the race had shown both Republicans trailing.

He who does not doubt shall partake of Senator Daines' wisdom, he who underestimates Senator Daines shall be cast into the sea of defeat and despair

[Bootes Void]

Yikes, not good. Buts it all turnout

[BudgieForce]

It certainly seems plausible.

Their Georgia poll from November 2nd appears to have been R-friendly though.

Trump - 49.4%
Biden - 46.9%

https://medium.com/wick-research/predicting-2020-research-on-the-research-57ad9b7b3d5a

Edit: I want to make it clear I'm not discounting the pollster. The medium article I linked is actually very interesting. This pollster changed their methodology in an attempt to reach lower response voters. It appears to have paid off since they saw a closer race than other pollsters. The end results weren't terrible either. They missed Georgia and Pennsylvania while their Ohio and Michigan numbers were too D-Friendly and R-Friendly. Their Florida and North Carolina results were pretty on the money.

I think this pollster might be on the right track. I'm just noting for context that their final Georgia poll had Trump winning by 2.5%.

[Ljube]

Win Georgia, save America is a simple and very powerful message. And it's working.

[VAR]

The fools will suggest that this can be attributed to ‘nationalization’, ‘consolidation,’ and ‘energized base turnout,’ but nothing could be further from the truth: Polling has dramatically improved for Republicans since Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) decided to campaign for David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by joining the ‘Win Georgia, save America’ bus tour last week, privately let GA Republican officials and campaign strategists in on his foolproof mastermind strategy via Zoom, and shrewdly made his passionate plea and persuasive case to the people of Georgia on Fox and Friends Weekend on December 12, 2020. In fact, no poll since then has not shown Perdue and Loeffler ahead despite the fact that the vast majority of polls conducted before Senator Daines' involvement in the race had shown both Republicans trailing.

He who does not doubt shall partake of Senator Daines' wisdom, he who underestimates Senator Daines shall be cast into the sea of defeat and despair

Yeah... but could Rep. Young Kim's (R-CA) homophobia be enough to take him down in 2026? I personally think Shelley Moore Capito is on track for a Blanching if/when West Virginians learn the truth about Young Kim, but Daines could eke out a win thanks to the fact that, as you said earlier, he is literally entrenched among millennial/Gen Z Montanans who trust him to introduce bipartisan bills to fix the problems Montana's LGBT community is facing. Montana is relatively close to Mrs. Kim's district, so the fundamentals aren't really in Daines' favor, but candidate quality matters imo.

[Gracile]

The fools will suggest that this can be attributed to ‘nationalization’, ‘consolidation,’ and ‘energized base turnout,’ but nothing could be further from the truth: Polling has dramatically improved for Republicans since Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) decided to campaign for David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by joining the ‘Win Georgia, save America’ bus tour last week, privately let GA Republican officials and campaign strategists in on his foolproof mastermind strategy via Zoom, and shrewdly made his passionate plea and persuasive case to the people of Georgia on Fox and Friends Weekend on December 12, 2020. In fact, no poll since then has not shown Perdue and Loeffler ahead despite the fact that the vast majority of polls conducted before Senator Daines' involvement in the race had shown both Republicans trailing.

He who does not doubt shall partake of Senator Daines' wisdom, he who underestimates Senator Daines shall be cast into the sea of defeat and despair

Yes, that is worrying. At this point, only Tester could swoop in to save Ossoff and Warnock.

[Woody]

Good, keep the enemy down here.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wow, what strong candidates Perdue and Ossof are, and what weak candidates Warnock and Loeffler are!

A stunning display of candidate quality!

[Frenchrepublican]

Plausible numbers even if the pollster is totally unknown to me

[Horus]

Lol polls

[Del Tachi]

I actually think there's a good chance polls will be overestimating Republicans here because the people who won't vote because they think the GOP has betrayed them are the types that are very unlikely to respond to polls. They supposedly only represent 3% here and aren't disproportionately Republican. Hopefully the poll is right, and I don't say that necessarily because I want Republicans to win these, I say that from a hope that this toxicity in mindset is less than we're hearing and seeing.

Wait...I don't get what you're saying here.  If the poll is *not capturing voters who won't turnout because they feel the GOP betrayed them, then it is an accurate representation of the actual electorate in that regard.  If non-voters are not included in the poll then they can't be a source of bias in the poll's results. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

Win Georgia, save America is a simple and very powerful message. And it's working.

I must have missed the election being over?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are measuring the drapes just like they are in 2022, GA, along with WI, PA, and NC are the Ds path to Statehood and expanding the Crts

[ElectionsGuy]

I actually think there's a good chance polls will be overestimating Republicans here because the people who won't vote because they think the GOP has betrayed them are the types that are very unlikely to respond to polls. They supposedly only represent 3% here and aren't disproportionately Republican. Hopefully the poll is right, and I don't say that necessarily because I want Republicans to win these, I say that from a hope that this toxicity in mindset is less than we're hearing and seeing.

Wait...I don't get what you're saying here.  If the poll is *not capturing voters who won't turnout because they feel the GOP betrayed them, then it is an accurate representation of the actual electorate in that regard.  If non-voters are not included in the poll then they can't be a source of bias in the poll's results. 

Yeah, I conveyed that very poorly. Here's what I mean though:

Polls don't usually capture these type of hostile-to-the-establishment voters, but they end up turning out for Trump and Republicans anyway. This simple response bias is part of what made some polls way too Democratic. But now, there may be a slice of them who are unwilling to vote to save the GOP Senate majority, so the polls may either be less wrong or even overestimate Republicans. In other words, they now may be accurate to not capture them, whereas before they didn't capture them when they did vote. In Georgia, you also have the factor that polls tend to always underestimate Democrats with black voters, so that factor might even outdo the other factors to possibly make the polls R-leaning. Regardless, I hope that hypothesis is wrong and the poll is accurately capturing a representative sample and that these types of people are less of a proportion than we think.

That might sound different than what I said before, but that was how I was thinking about it in my head.