Emerson - Georgia Runoffs (Perdue +3, Loeffler +3).

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1339376973227974656?s=19

[MT Treasurer]

Those age/generational differences are just devastating for the GA GOP and worse than anything else I’ve seen out of any other state recently (even VA). It’s pretty clear that any R success here will be very short-lived.

Also, some geographic differences:

The suburbs are a battleground for all the candidates as both Republicans Loeffler and Perdue lead their Democratic challengers Warnock and Ossoff 52% to 47% each. The Urban/Suburban vote is breaking for Warnock with 75% of the vote, and Ossoff with 73%. In the rural areas of the state, Loeffler and Perdue lead with 68% and 67% of the vote.

Perdue and Loeffler are strongest in the northern region of the state with over 75% support, and north of Atlanta with 58% support. The two Democrats have strong support in the Atlanta area, with 81% breaking for Warnock and 77% for Ossoff. Republicans lead south of Atlanta with Loeffler performing slightly better with 58% support, as compared with 57% for Perdue. Warnock and Ossoff are strong in the southwest corner of the state with 74% support for Warnock and 69% for Ossoff.

[S019]

MTurk

[Roll Roons]

I mean, Memerson. But these numbers are plausible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sad, but true, Rs may in fact hold the Senate..Rs leads are moving outside the margin of error

[Frenchrepublican]

These numbers are very plausible.

Also it's noteworthy that Emerson polls' accuracy has greatly improved over the past few years

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So given the various polls that have come out so far, we are now in a position to start narrowing down the possible outcomes.

Either:

a) Strong candidates Warnock and Perdue outperform Weak candidates Loeffler and Ossoff.

b) Strong candidates Loeffler and Ossoff outperform Weak candidates Warnock and Perdue.

c) Each race has exactly the same vote margin and Rs win both (as in this poll).

d) Each race has exactly the same vote margin and Ds win both.

But notice that NOT A SINGLE POLL has shown:

e) Strong candidates Warnock and Loeffler outperform Weak candidates Perdue and Ossoff.

or f) Strong candidates Perdue and Ossoff outperform Weak candidates Warnock and Loeffler.

It is very fortunate that we have all these polls, because now we can rule out those latter two possibilities. And we can only do that thanks to having all these polls, not because the latter two are logically impossible. Now we have an excellent idea of what is going to happen, it will be one of the first 4 possibilities, thanks to the polling industry for its excellent contribution.

[Frenchrepublican]

Those age/generational differences are just devastating for the GA GOP and worse than anything else I’ve seen out of any other state recently (even VA). It’s pretty clear that any R success here will be very short-lived.

Also, some geographic differences:

The suburbs are a battleground for all the candidates as both Republicans Loeffler and Perdue lead their Democratic challengers Warnock and Ossoff 52% to 47% each. The Urban/Suburban vote is breaking for Warnock with 75% of the vote, and Ossoff with 73%. In the rural areas of the state, Loeffler and Perdue lead with 68% and 67% of the vote.

Perdue and Loeffler are strongest in the northern region of the state with over 75% support, and north of Atlanta with 58% support. The two Democrats have strong support in the Atlanta area, with 81% breaking for Warnock and 77% for Ossoff. Republicans lead south of Atlanta with Loeffler performing slightly better with 58% support, as compared with 57% for Perdue. Warnock and Ossoff are strong in the southwest corner of the state with 74% support for Warnock and 69% for Ossoff.

To be fair, holding the two GA seats is not about long term political control, the GOP simply needs them until they are able to defeat the remaining red state democratic senators in MT/OH/WV

[OSR stands with Israel]

Those age/generational differences are just devastating for the GA GOP and worse than anything else I’ve seen out of any other state recently (even VA). It’s pretty clear that any R success here will be very short-lived.

Also, some geographic differences:

The suburbs are a battleground for all the candidates as both Republicans Loeffler and Perdue lead their Democratic challengers Warnock and Ossoff 52% to 47% each. The Urban/Suburban vote is breaking for Warnock with 75% of the vote, and Ossoff with 73%. In the rural areas of the state, Loeffler and Perdue lead with 68% and 67% of the vote.

Perdue and Loeffler are strongest in the northern region of the state with over 75% support, and north of Atlanta with 58% support. The two Democrats have strong support in the Atlanta area, with 81% breaking for Warnock and 77% for Ossoff. Republicans lead south of Atlanta with Loeffler performing slightly better with 58% support, as compared with 57% for Perdue. Warnock and Ossoff are strong in the southwest corner of the state with 74% support for Warnock and 69% for Ossoff.

Could GA becoming worse for the GOP than VA and potentially be another Illionis . The similarities are there in Which Illinois before 1992 went republican the previous 6 election cycles and 8 of the previous 10 just like Georgia did from 1980-2016.

Illinois just like Georgia was based on republicans not only winning big in the rural area but dominating the suburban areas of Chicago especially the collar counties but once the suburbs started to flip Illionis quickly became a Solid and Deep Blue state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tbh Pelosi screwed this up by not compromising on the first stimulus 1.8T and saying 2.2T or nothing, she opened the door for the Rs to defeat D's in her own Districts and allow the Rs to keep contrrol of the Senate. That's why she only has a 5 seat Majority, the female candidates that could have used the Stimulus passage to claim victory like Gideon, Greenfield and Bollier lost

Another 2 yrs of McConnells Leadership, sigh

[VAR]

Tbh Pelosi screwed this up by not compromising on the first stimulus 1.8T and saying 2.2T or nothing, she opened the door for the Rs to defeat D's in her own Districts and allow the Rs to keep contrrol of the Senate. That's why she only has a 5 seat Majority, the female candidates that could have used the Stimulus passage to claim victory like Gideon, Greenfield and Bollier lost

Another 2 yrs of McConnells Leadership, sigh

Has OC ever said "tbh" before?

[wbrocks67]

Those age/generational differences are just devastating for the GA GOP and worse than anything else I’ve seen out of any other state recently (even VA). It’s pretty clear that any R success here will be very short-lived.

Also, some geographic differences:

The suburbs are a battleground for all the candidates as both Republicans Loeffler and Perdue lead their Democratic challengers Warnock and Ossoff 52% to 47% each. The Urban/Suburban vote is breaking for Warnock with 75% of the vote, and Ossoff with 73%. In the rural areas of the state, Loeffler and Perdue lead with 68% and 67% of the vote.

Perdue and Loeffler are strongest in the northern region of the state with over 75% support, and north of Atlanta with 58% support. The two Democrats have strong support in the Atlanta area, with 81% breaking for Warnock and 77% for Ossoff. Republicans lead south of Atlanta with Loeffler performing slightly better with 58% support, as compared with 57% for Perdue. Warnock and Ossoff are strong in the southwest corner of the state with 74% support for Warnock and 69% for Ossoff.

How did the "suburbs" end up in the GE? Does Rep+5 sound realistic?

[KaiserDave]

Memerson, but plausible

[Sir Mohamed]

Possible. I much rather prefer to be surprised in the positive way, but we'll have to see. I expect a 52-48 R senate coming January.

[VAR]

Didn't Memerson find Greenfield up by 4? LOL.

[Roll Roons]

Just to check, has Selzer done polls of any other states? I know Georgia and Iowa are about as dissimilar as two states could possibly be, but still...

[brucejoel99]

In the 538 average, this poll makes it so that Perdue has now taken the lead by 0.1%. Warnock now only has a lead of 0.3% in the average.

Do y'all know what this means?

STRONG CANDIDATES PERDUE & WARNOCK ARE ABOUT TO BE STRONG SENATORS PERDUE & WARNOCK!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ds need to win both races to have a chance to raise taxes or filibuster reform or give more stimulus checks or Judges. Leader McConnell will blockade every Appeals Crt nominee for the next 2 years

Its not over, but the Rs are back favored to win these races. Don't forget we had polling errors in ME,IA and NC that showed Ds winning them and we ended up losing them

[MillennialModerate]

Finally. Georgia polls that make sense.

[Left Wing]

Finally. Georgia polls that make sense.

What did the state of Georgia ever do to you?

[WD]

Finally. Georgia polls that make sense.

I really fear for your health if Ossoff and Warnock win.

[MillennialModerate]

Finally. Georgia polls that make sense.

What did the state of Georgia ever do to you?

Gave me a stroke/anxiety attack for 2 and a half quarters of football ?

That’s all I can think of

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is an Emerson poll, though and we all know how R biased they are

[Gracile]

Not going to read too much into polls (especially Emerson), but this along with others confirms my general sense that this will be a tossup/close race.

[S019]

Finally. Georgia polls that make sense.

What did the state of Georgia ever do to you?

Gave me a stroke/anxiety attack for 2 and a half quarters of football ?

That’s all I can think of

Wait so you hate Georgia because of the Super Bowl game? Watching the Falcons blow that lead was entertaining and it should make you like GA more!


Anyways as I said before MTurkson=garbage