Pennsylvania

[SDdem]

Did anyone ever thought Pennsylvania could’ve been in play in 2012 ?? I mean judging by the result, I don’t know why Romney visited there so many times just weeks before election night, what made him think he could win there ? We may never know, his internals are likely the reason. Funniest thing is in Philly, Romney failed to get a single vote in 59 divisions. FIFTY NINE. Did well in the suburbs though, won Chester and narrowly lost Bucks

[Annatar]

Well it was the only one of the northern big swing states that showed a meaningful Republican trend in 2008, it moved from a partisan lean of D+5 in 2004 to D+3 in 2008, if it could go to say D+1 in 2012 and Romney won the popular vote he would win the state, and many national polls had him winning the popular vote.

[Chips]

I did think there was potential for a Romney upset there before the election. I think I had Obama winning the state by like 3-4 points.

I had the election as a 288-250 Obama win with Romney winning FL, CO and IA.

[Redban]

Why did Romney go to PA?

Because Romney was facing a tough map. Ohio, FL, IA, and NC were the only actual toss-ups. Everything else was set, with 264 electoral votes in Obama's favor. That means Romney needed to win all 4 toss-ups -- OH, FL, IA, and NC --- whereas Obama needed just one of them.

Romney's hail-mary options to expand the map were Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. He chose PA.

And honestly, his perforamnce was actually good. The state almost matched the national average, a big Republican trend from prior elections. It foreshadowed the 2016 result

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

PA was very close to the tipping point state: I believe CO was the tipping state at D +5.37, and PA at D +5.39. So it wasn't a terrible decision by Romney to visit PA.