NM-1 special election - Special election: June 1st

[Tender Branson]

There’s a former Republican/now Libertarian/Independent in the race too, who once got 250.000 votes statewide and who will pick some Republican votes away.

Safe D.

[Biden 2024]

https://twitter.com/NMDEMS/status/1377074197801828352

I imagine ASL should be considered the heavy favorite to win this run-off, given that she finished the 1st round with 74 votes to Stanbury's 43. I don't really see a scenario in which she doesn't pick up enough of the 46 Reyes, Guerrero, Louis, & Fernández (i.e. progressive) votes to win her the nomination: that is, 26 of those 46, which gets her to the necessary majority of 100 out of the 199 total votes cast.

I agree. As someone on the Left I'm excited about the prospect of ASL in Congress. I supported her campaign in 2018 back when she was part of the first Justice Democrat slate and was putting up pretty great numbers, though I've obviously been a huge fan of Haaland's tenure in Congress and am hyped to see her lead the DoI.

[Biden 2024]

https://twitter.com/NMDEMS/status/1377074197801828352

I would have to do a lot more research to choose between these two in a primary. Would vote for both in the special election of course. SO glad Maggie Toulouse-Oliver isn’t getting it.

Wonder who the Reps will pick? They’re probably looking to get a respectable result instead of winning.

And as someone else pointed out this isn’t the district for a special election upset. NM-3 is way more susceptible to that (it happened once a decade or two back).

ASL was part of the first Justice Democrat slate and is a huge Sandernista - If elected she'll probably join the Squad. I'm not totally familiar with Stansbury, but from what I can tell she's a pretty orthodox Democrat in terms of political views and the like though has tacked left on Medicare for All during her House run. I'm a socialist so I prefer the former, but if you consider yourself a more moderate Democrat you'll presumably prefer Stansbury.

[beesley]

There’s a former Republican/now Libertarian/Independent in the race too, who once got 250.000 votes statewide and who will pick some Republican votes away.

Safe D.

Was it really beyond you to say whether it was Johnson or Dunn? Considering I thought the former when I saw your post.

[Babeuf]

Ugh ASL lost 51-48. Hopefully she can win the next primary but will be tough. Hurts to come so close to having one of the best members of Congress come in.

[brucejoel99]

Ugh ASL lost 51-48.

Oh wow, the presumptions behind my earlier run-off math based off of yesterday's vote totals were totally wrong, then, because I really thought ASL was the favorite to win. Oh well

In any event, here's to Stansbury for having evidently ran a better nomination campaign than anybody was really willing to give her credit for.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ugh ASL lost 51-48.

Oh wow, the presumptions behind my earlier run-off math based off of yesterday's vote totals were totally wrong, then, because I really thought ASL was the favorite to win. Oh well

In any event, here's to Stansbury for having evidently ran a better nomination campaign than anybody was really willing to give her credit for.

In 2020, Ronny Jackson and Barry Moore were down by 20 in Round 1. Stephanie Bice was down by 12.

[brucejoel99]

Ugh ASL lost 51-48.

Oh wow, the presumptions behind my earlier run-off math based off of yesterday's vote totals were totally wrong, then, because I really thought ASL was the favorite to win. Oh well

In any event, here's to Stansbury for having evidently ran a better nomination campaign than anybody was really willing to give her credit for.

In 2020, Ronny Jackson and Barry Moore were down by 20 in Round 1. Stephanie Bice was down by 12.

Yeah, but those were actually primaries, as opposed to nominating conventions with just 199 total voters.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL Twitter progressives are actually doom tweeting about losing the seat because they're upset about ASL losing.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/NMDEMS/status/1377074197801828352

I would have to do a lot more research to choose between these two in a primary. Would vote for both in the special election of course. SO glad Maggie Toulouse-Oliver isn’t getting it.

Wonder who the Reps will pick? They’re probably looking to get a respectable result instead of winning.

And as someone else pointed out this isn’t the district for a special election upset. NM-3 is way more susceptible to that (it happened once a decade or two back).

They already picked State Senator Mark Moore.

They better line him up a nice plum job for taking the bullet then

Some source (I forget where I read this) speculated that Mark Moores may be running in the Special Election in an effort to get his name out there for a potential 2022 run for Governor. Seems like an interesting (and plausible) theory.

But he could be running to win, crazy things have happened in special elections in the past! To be clear, I think Stansbury (the Democratic candidate) is heavily favored to win, but it’s not completely out of the question that an upset could occur (even if it’s very very unlikely).

[LtNOWIS]

Ugh ASL lost 51-48.

Oh wow, the presumptions behind my earlier run-off math based off of yesterday's vote totals were totally wrong, then, because I really thought ASL was the favorite to win. Oh well

In any event, here's to Stansbury for having evidently ran a better nomination campaign than anybody was really willing to give her credit for.

In 2020, Ronny Jackson and Barry Moore were down by 20 in Round 1. Stephanie Bice was down by 12.

Yeah, but those were actually primaries, as opposed to nominating conventions with just 199 total voters.

On balance that makes an upset easier. You can personally speak to all the swing voters and win them over, in one evening.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/NMDEMS/status/1377074197801828352

I would have to do a lot more research to choose between these two in a primary. Would vote for both in the special election of course. SO glad Maggie Toulouse-Oliver isn’t getting it.

Wonder who the Reps will pick? They’re probably looking to get a respectable result instead of winning.

And as someone else pointed out this isn’t the district for a special election upset. NM-3 is way more susceptible to that (it happened once a decade or two back).

They already picked State Senator Mark Moore.

They better line him up a nice plum job for taking the bullet then

Some source (I forget where I read this) speculated that Mark Moores may be running in the Special Election in an effort to get his name out there for a potential 2022 run for Governor. Seems like an interesting (and plausible) theory.

But he could be running to win, crazy things have happened in special elections in the past! To be clear, I think Stansbury (the Democratic candidate) is heavily favored to win, but it’s not completely out of the question that an upset could occur (even if it’s very very unlikely).

Ah, thanks! I am quite surprised that it’s Stansbury.

[Tender Branson]

Solid D nominee:

[Tender Branson]

Put a reference in the thread title: „June 1 special election“

[Woody]

Possible upset?

[Meatball Ron]

No. Leave the forum for one year, please.

[Frenchrepublican]

I think that Moores is a better candidate but the district is probably dem friendly enough to rule out a upset, so Stansbury probably wins by a low double digit margin.

[Roll Roons]

Special elections can be weird, so I won't completely rule out the possibility of Moores winning. But Stansbury is strongly favored.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably Moores.

[Woody]

I think that Moores is a better candidate but the district is probably dem friendly enough to rule out a upset, so Stansbury probably wins by a low double digit margin.

Special elections can be weird, so I won't completely rule out the possibility of Moores winning. But Stansbury is strongly favored.

If he were to win, would he be DOA in 2022?

[VAR]

If he were to win, would he be DOA in 2022?

Obviously yes.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Probably Moores.

funny joke.

[S019]

Stansbury will win, also it hasn't been a year yet, last that I checked

[Gracile]

This might end up being a surprisingly close race depending on the circumstances, but I think a largely urban/suburban Biden +23 district is a bit too much for the GOP to overcome. Voted Stansbury.

[Roll Roons]

I think that Moores is a better candidate but the district is probably dem friendly enough to rule out a upset, so Stansbury probably wins by a low double digit margin.

Special elections can be weird, so I won't completely rule out the possibility of Moores winning. But Stansbury is strongly favored.

If he were to win, would he be DOA in 2022?

Yeah, it would be a rental.