I don't know what question we're trying to answer here, but I was expecting Trump to win Texas by 3 and MN by 5, so it wasn't a surprise that MN voted more D than TX voted R. However, I was expecting MN to vote D+5 assuming a D+6/+7 environment. That MN voted D+7 in a D+4.5 national environment is actually pretty surprising to me.
As for what I got wrong on reflection - I actually had thought Dems were pretty maxed in MSP metro around Hillary's numbers (I think many others here did too), but it looks like the Dem ceiling in MSP suburbs especially is quite a bit higher than I would have thought. I definitely didn't see Biden coming within mid single digits in Carver and Scott counties, or cracking 70% in Hennepin.
Texas is becoming more like America as a whole except for having larger minority populations. It used to be worse-educated, more rural, and poorer than America as a whole. As people from outside Texas move in and as the Hispanic population grows, demographics and political attitudes change. Texas is not yet a microcosm of America, but when it becomes such it will be the definitive swing state. It straddled 400 electoral votes for the Republican nominee for President since the 1980's; The rural areas are shrinking and the cities are ballooning.
