Biden did better in Minnesota than Trump did in Texas

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I posted this on my Twitter Account a while ago, But I'll Say it again:

Trump received roughly 60% in Most of Rural Minnesota

Trump received roughly 75% in most of Rural Ohio

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I posted this on my Twitter Account a while ago, But I'll Say it again:

Trump received roughly 60% in Most of Rural Minnesota

Trump received roughly 75% in most of Rural Ohio

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

I don't buy the idea that all of rural America everywhere is going to inevitably end up voting >70% Republican. Sure there are a lot of places that now vote >70% Republican that I never would have expected to, but there are also plenty that don't, and I don't see why we just assume that the former represent the future for the latter.

It seems like Rural MN/IA/WI are voting the same as where Rural PA/OH/WV was 12 years ago

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

If rural MN swung 10 point more Republican than how it actually voted this cycle, it would still not be sufficient enough to flip the state: Minnesota minus the seven county metro area is 45% of the state's population, so a 10 point swing in rural MN would translate into a 4.5 point statewide swing, and 7.1 - 4.5 = Biden would still have won by 2.6 points (still larger than the margin he actually got in either WI or PA).

For the GOP to break even with the Democrats, they would need to swing the rural vote by 7.1/.45 = 15.8 points. This is an illustration of the fact that the Republicans definitively can flip Minnesota, but that it's unlikely to become a red-leaning state like Iowa or Ohio anytime soon.

Of course, this is all assuming that the Twin Cities area does not swing further to the left (which could be a reasonable assumption with the right GOP candidate) or decrease in portion to the total statewide vote (which is completely nonsensical).

Increasing your vote share by 10% would be increasing your margin by 20 (assuming no 3rd parties for simplicity). Try Again.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I posted this on my Twitter Account a while ago, But I'll Say it again:

Trump received roughly 60% in Most of Rural Minnesota

Trump received roughly 75% in most of Rural Ohio

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

The "rural" parts of Minnesota are probably already close to 70% Republican but the mid sized cities outside the Twin Cities Metro are are Democratic leaning. Duluth 68% D, Rochester 59% D, Mankato 59% D, St Cloud 52% D, Moorhead 57% D.  All trended D this past election.  70% in greater MN is not going to happen.

Talk Election, 2015:

70% is not gonna happen in Rural Ohio