I did some number crunching and here is how MN broke down this election. 69% of the state's vote (~1.9M) came from the 8 counties that include Hennepin / Ramsey + the counties that touch these two counties. 31% (855k) votes came from all other counties in the state.
Overall, in the 8 county region, Biden got 62.6% of the two party vote, while in the rest of the state, he got 40.8%. Trump would have needed to get 77% of the Greater MN vote, given the MSP results.
Based on these numbers, it definitely looks like the R path through MN runs through the suburbs and not rural MN. The numbers just aren't there in the rural parts of the state.
Notably, if you took out all the suburbs (i.e., if the state only contained the Twin Cities themselves and Greater MN), Biden would have still won the state with 50.8% (862K - 835K). This likely means that a R win would involve actually winning the combined suburban vote, not just cutting the margins.
Trump Biden Biden% Total Votes
Twin Cities 54,584 325,389 85.6% 379,973
Inner Suburbs 228,765 418,854 64.7% 647,619
Middle Suburbs 288,304 336,213 53.8% 624,517
Outer Suburbs 131,854 99,244 42.9% 231,098
Total MSP Met 703,507 1,179,700 62.6% 1,883,207
Greater MN 780,558 537,377 40.8% 855,615
Total MN 1,484,065 1,717,077 53.6% 2,738,822
Twin Cities = Minneapolis & St. Paul Cities
Inner Suburbs = Suburban Hennpin and Ramsey
Middle Suburbs = Dakota, Washington, Anoka
Outer Suburbs = Scott, Carver, Wright
Greater MN = Everything Else
You hvae the Total Vote count in Greater MN and Total MN wrong
