Biden did better in Minnesota than Trump did in Texas

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota is now more partisan than Texas. Hahahaha oh yes, love that little factoid about this election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think one thing that's being kind of missed is that basically all areas in Minnesota that are gaining population are swinging D while almost all swinging R are losing population.

But for example, look at former R strongholds Anoka and Carver County. Trump won both of them combined by 7248 votes. Biden won Olmsted County by almost 10k votes. Thus cancelling both of them out by a county that isn't even in the metro! And these two were formerly key to any GOP path to victory in Minnesota.

Meanwhile look at the 2010 race for State Auditor. I think this is the highest percentage a statewide Republican has ever received in Minnesota since Obama took office (47.13%) is the closest DFL race with barely over a point. And the margins were:

Carver R+9032
Anoka R+8396
Scott R+9357

And Hennepin County was D+76,034, Ramsey D+46,187. So while heavily dwarfing those, they at least made a dent. Meanwhile in 2020 Biden won Hennepin County by 326,612 votes and Ramsey County by 134,247. Trump's combined margin of 13,082 in those counties is equivalent to less than 1/10 of Biden's in Ramsey County and about 1/25 of Biden's in Hennepin.

Yes this was a WAY higher turnout election (Biden got almost twice as many votes as DFL winner Otto!) but the point is pretty clear, the GOP's former strongholds are basically just doing scratch damage to newly buffed up DFL strongholds, and they're not going to make that up just by scraping a couple thousand more votes out of declining rural areas.

Oh and that aforementioned Olmsted County? Anderson actually won it by over 8k votes. In a much lower turnout election. It's not just the metro swinging against the Republicans.

(Anderson also won her home county of Dakota, and only lost Washington by a hair, and clearly would've had won it had it not have been Otto's home county and base of support. Those two went from giving the Democrats at most marginal victories to pretty solid ones.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I posted this on my Twitter Account a while ago, But I'll Say it again:

Trump received roughly 60% in Most of Rural Minnesota

Trump received roughly 75% in most of Rural Ohio

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

The "rural" parts of Minnesota are probably already close to 70% Republican but the mid sized cities outside the Twin Cities Metro are are Democratic leaning. Duluth 68% D, Rochester 59% D, Mankato 59% D, St Cloud 52% D, Moorhead 57% D.  All trended D this past election.  70% in greater MN is not going to happen.

Talk Election, 2015:

70% is not gonna happen in Rural Ohio

He's not talking about rural areas in that post.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

New data showing why just surging more in rural areas won't win:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1606432155478941696?t=iLqMWmBIlRCO56o...