GA-Trafalgar: Ossoff +0.3, Loeffler +3.1

[wbrocks67]

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ga-sen-1211/

Dec 8-10

With leaners

(compared to Dec 1-3)

Ossoff 49.1% (+1.1)
Perdue 48.8% (+1.5)
Undecided 2.1% (-2.6)

Loeffler 50.4% (+0.2)
Warnock 47.3% (+2.0)
Undecided 2.3% (-2.3)

[S019]

Trafalgar=trash, regardless of the toplines

[Kuumo]

Trafalgar has decimals now? Sorry, I still don't think Trafalgar is a gold standard pollster.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wow, what strong candidates Ossoff and Loeffler are, and what weak candidates Perdue and Warnock are!

A stunning display of candidate quality!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So if you compare across polls, these things are all over the place with regards to whether the Ossoff/Perdue race or the Loeffler/Warnock race is the more D or the more R one. The polls all agree that one candidate or the other will significantly outperform the other, but they don't agree on which one.

One interesting thing though is it may be more consistent within each pollster, so the under/over performance and #CandidateQuality may be partly some sort of house effect of the pollster, rather than anything about the candidates themselves.

In the case of Trafalgar, their previous poll also had both Ossoff and Loeffler winning (both by smaller amounts). So it seems like Trafalgar might have a House Effect where they are juicing up Loeffler based on "social desirability" (read: did you know that Radical Liberal Raphael Warnock is black? effect). Maybe the actual results were Warnock winning, but they just subtracted a few points from Warnock's top line and added them to Loeffler because of "social desirability."

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trafalgar has decimals now? Sorry, I still don't think Trafalgar is a gold standard pollster.

They've always had decimals

[WD]

What?! Perdue underperforming Weak Candidate Kelly Loeffler? Trash, both he and Warnock are both up 10% in actuality. I mean, look at the facts, Perdue’s appeal in the suburbs is unmatched, Loeffler could never even come close to replicating it, Warnock is incredibly popular, and unlike Joke Candidate Jon Ossoff, has never lost an election. Because Warnock is facing such a weak candidate, he will easily win in the Atlanta Suburbs, and in all likelihood will sweep all counties. Common sense would one to reasonably conclude that Warnock and Perdue are on track to win easily. The people of Georgia shouldn’t bother voting, in my view, for the results are already set in stone.


Ratings:

GA-R: Safe R
GA-S: Likely D

[KaiserDave]

Trafalgar is garbage

[AGA]

I wonder if they've changed their methodology at all because they were showing much more favorable numbers for Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's within margin of error, there isn't any changed methodology it'ssafe to say that one of these R candidates are leading

[Alben Barkley]

Trafalgar applies their "social desirability bias" factor to any race with a black candidate, so this probably means Warnock is easily winning.

[WD]

Trafalgar applies their "social desirability bias" factor to any race with a black candidate, so this probably means Warnock is easily winning.

Trafalgar’s final GA poll was Trump+5, so take from that what you will.