2020 PVIs
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2020 PVIs
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Author Topic: 2020 PVIs  (Read 3613 times)
Squidward500
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« Reply #25 on: December 11, 2020, 06:16:05 PM »
« edited: December 12, 2020, 07:09:44 PM by Squidward500 »

PENNSYLVANIA is finished. And there’s a new champ for most D district (pending CA)

PA1: EVEN
PA2: D+21
PA3: D+41
PA4: D+9
PA5: D+13
PA6: D+5
PA7: EVEN
PA8: R+5
PA9: R+18
PA10: R+5
PA11: R+14
PA12: R+20
PA13: R+25
PA14: R+16
PA15: R+24
PA16: R+12
PA17: R+2
PA18: D+13
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: December 11, 2020, 06:24:03 PM »

So it looks like the most Democratic district in a Trump state is OH-11 (D+30), and the most Republican district in a Biden state is GA-09 (R+31).
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Squidward500
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« Reply #27 on: December 11, 2020, 08:24:50 PM »

So it looks like the most Democratic district in a Trump state is OH-11 (D+30), and the most Republican district in a Biden state is GA-09 (R+31).

Yeah those will hold well since the rest of the states I’m missing don’t have such extreme districts that oppose their states dominant party.

The only interesting data points left is whether CA13 tops PA3 (D+41) and if AL4 will top TX13/KY5 (R+33)
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Squidward500
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« Reply #28 on: December 12, 2020, 07:16:12 PM »
« Edited: December 12, 2020, 11:59:55 PM by Squidward500 »

CALIFORNIA is done!

CA1: R+10
CA2: D+23
CA3: D+5
CA4: R+8
CA5: D+22
CA6: D+21
CA7: D+5
CA8: R+8
CA9: D+8
CA10: EVEN
CA11: D+24
CA12: D+38
CA13: D+40
CA14: D+28
CA15: D+22
CA16: D+9
CA17: D+24
CA18: D+27
CA19: D+23
CA20: D+23
CA21: D+5
CA22: R+6
CA23: R+12
CA24: D+10
CA25: D+3
CA26: D+10
CA27: D+18
CA28: D+23
CA29: D+27
CA30: D+20
CA31: D+9
CA32: D+17
CA33: D+19
CA34: D+34
CA35: D+17
CA36: D+4
CA37: D+36
CA38: D+17
CA39: D+3
CA40: D+31
CA41: D+12
CA42: R+7
CA43: D+29
CA44: D+32
CA45: D+3
CA46: D+16
CA47: D+14
CA48: R+1
CA49: D+4
CA50: R+8
CA51: D+20
CA52: D+12
CA53: D+17


NEW JERSEY

NJ1: D+11
NJ2: R+4
NJ3: R+3
NJ4: R+8
NJ5: R+1
NJ6: D+6
NJ7: D+1
NJ8: D+23
NJ9: D+13
NJ10: D+34
NJ11: EVEN
NJ12: D+16

MINNESOTA
MN1: R+8
MN2: EVEN
MN3: D+6
MN4: D+16
MN5: D+29
MN6: R+14
MN7: R+18
MN8: R+10







Only waiting on ALABAMA KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA NEW YORK...
If anyone has numbers for any of these states, send them my way. (I do have the NYC districts 6-15)
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TML
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: December 12, 2020, 07:19:08 PM »

What about Washington, DC? Cook calculates its PVI because it participates in presidential elections, even though it currently doesn’t elect any voting members to Congress.
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Squidward500
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« Reply #30 on: December 12, 2020, 07:44:58 PM »

What about Washington, DC? Cook calculates its PVI because it participates in presidential elections, even though it currently doesn’t elect any voting members to Congress.

D+43. So it tops PA3 as the most D district. The most R district is up in the air until I get my hands on the AL-4 numbers but R+33 is the number to beat
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Squidward500
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« Reply #31 on: December 15, 2020, 03:42:16 AM »
« Edited: December 17, 2020, 04:01:07 PM by Squidward500 »

A few more partial results. Kinda a scattering of random districts from other states.

KS-3: D+1

KY-1: R+26
KY-2: R+22
KY-3: D+8
KY-4: R+19
KY-5: R+33
KY-6: R+8

NY-20: D+7
NY-23: R+8
NY-25: D+8
NY-26: D+10
NY-27: R+12

AL-1: R+16
AL-2: R+17
AL-3: R+18
AL-4: R+34!!
AL-5: R+17
AL-6: R+23
AL-7: D+20


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Squidward500
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« Reply #32 on: December 15, 2020, 01:49:36 PM »

ALABAMA 4 IS NOW THE MOST REPUBLICAN DISTRICT IN THE COUNTRY (R+34)

PENNSYLVANIA 3 IS THE MOST DEMOCRATIC DISTRICT IN THE COUNTRY (D+41)

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MarkD
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: December 16, 2020, 12:38:02 AM »

Hm. In every CA district that has a PVI that is R elected a Republican to the House. But Republicans also won election to a few districts that were PVI D. Here's the districts that were PVI D+5 or less:

CA3: D+5
CA7: D+5
CA10: EVEN
CA21: D+5
CA25: D+3
CA36: D+4
CA39: D+3
CA45: D+3
CA49: D+4

Repubican David Valadao won a district that is D+5, Republican Mike Garcia won a district that is D+3, and Republican Young Kim won a district that is D+3. I wonder why the other Republican candidates in CA3, CA7, CA10, CA36, CA45, and CA49 did not perform better, at least make it a closer race than they did? For example, in CA10, which was EVEN, Republican Ted Howze lost by over 10 percentage points, and in CA36, which was D+4, Republican Erin Cruz lost by over 20 percentage points.

Also, in New Jersey:

NJ3: R+3
NJ5: R+1
NJ7: D+1
NJ11: EVEN

Why didn't Republicans David Richter, Frank Pallota, and Rosemary Becchi do better? At least in NJ7, D+1, Thomas Kean, Jr came pretty darn close to toppling the incumbent Democrat.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #34 on: December 16, 2020, 12:56:18 AM »

Richter, Pallotta and Becchi were all relative unknowns who were outraised and outspent by a ton, though the latter two put up respectable performances and still did much better than the 2018 candidates in NJ-05 and NJ-11. Richter was also a blatant carpetbagger who was going to run in NJ-02 but moved to NJ-03 when Van Drew switched parties.
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slothdem
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« Reply #35 on: December 17, 2020, 02:11:07 PM »

I believe that this year AL-04 has the reddest PVI of any district since the Mississippi districts in 1964. Don't think anything else was ever R+34 before (though if course there have been many blue urban districts that partisan).
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: December 17, 2020, 02:15:28 PM »

I believe that this year AL-04 has the reddest PVI of any district since the Mississippi districts in 1964. Don't think anything else was ever R+34 before (though if course there have been many blue urban districts that partisan).

How do you find PVI data going that far back?
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Squidward500
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« Reply #37 on: December 17, 2020, 03:55:14 PM »

Here’s Louisiana. Just waiting on some scattered upstateNY/Long island and Kansas now

LA1: R+22
LA2: D+25
LA3: R+21
LA4: R+14
LA5: R+17
LA6: R+18
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #38 on: January 08, 2021, 05:17:32 AM »

I’ve calculated out the state wide PVIs following the election.

Great work Squidward.

Do you just use presidential results, or also statewide when applicable?
I'm a bit puzzled by Montana R+11 when it's gone Trump +20 and +15
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Annatar
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« Reply #39 on: January 08, 2021, 05:44:07 AM »

I’ve calculated out the state wide PVIs following the election.

Great work Squidward.

Do you just use presidential results, or also statewide when applicable?
I'm a bit puzzled by Montana R+11 when it's gone Trump +20 and +15

PVI is calculated using the 2 party vote share in the state vs the nation not the margin.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #40 on: January 08, 2021, 01:39:11 PM »

PVI is calculated using the 2 party vote share in the state vs the nation not the margin.
Fine, so
2016: Montana Trump+20.5, Nation Clinton +2.1, Difference Trump+22.6
2020: Montana Trump +16.4, nation Biden +4.5, Difference Trump +20.9

Where does the +11 come from? Do we take Bullock's 2016 run into account?
(And using 2-party share accentuates the discrepancy further)
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #41 on: January 08, 2021, 02:57:31 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2021, 03:05:22 PM by neostassenite31 »

PVI is calculated using the 2 party vote share in the state vs the nation not the margin.
Fine, so
2016: Montana Trump+20.5, Nation Clinton +2.1, Difference Trump+22.6
2020: Montana Trump +16.4, nation Biden +4.5, Difference Trump +20.9

Where does the +11 come from? Do we take Bullock's 2016 run into account?
(And using 2-party share accentuates the discrepancy further)

A useful way (though not 100% technically correct) to think about it:
The numerical values that the CPVI produces are estimates of how many points the other party would need to increase their own vote share in a particular district or state to flip it, assuming that the national popular vote is even and neutral.

For example, a PVI of D+5 roughly describes a district that has a margin of D+10 points if the NPV is even or neutral. In this case, Republicans would need to increase their own vote share in that district by 5 points to flip it (with a symmetrical 5 points decrease in Democrats' vote share). This is why the district has a PVI of D+5.

In the case of Montana, here is a rough way (still not technically 100% correct) of looking at it:

2016: Montana was R+20.5 and the nation was D+2.1
For Dems to flip Montana assuming symmetry, they would need to increase their own vote share by: 20.5/2 = 10.3 points. For Republicans to break even nationally, it would take 2.1 / 2 = 1.1 points. 10.3 + 1.1 = R+11.4 for 2016 (addition was performed because R+20.5 and D+2.1 would have opposite signs on the same scale)

2020: Montana was R+16.4 and the nation was D+4.5
(16.4/2) + (4.5/2) = R+10.5 for 2020

Now average 2016 (R+11.4) and 2020 (R+10.5) and you get roughly R+11.

The actual formula takes into account the specific vote share % of each party and the % combined for both parties (to account for the influence of third parties).

Here's one version of the actual and correct formula that Cook uses (this particular form assumes that the district and nation at-large were both won by Dems in the last two presidential elections and that the district on average is more Democratic than the nation):

Adjusted national Democratic average across two elections:
(National Dem % in first election + National Dem % in second election) / (National Dem % in first election + National Dem % in second election + National GOP % in first election + National GOP % in second election)

Adjusted district Democratic average across two elections:
(District Dem % in first election + District Dem % in second election) / (District Dem % in first election + District Dem % in second election + District GOP % in first election + District GOP % in second election)

Cook PVI Value:
Adjusted district Democratic average across two elections MINUS Adjusted national Democratic average across two elections

(Use the adjusted national and district Republican averages if the state/district in question is more Republican than the nation)  
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #42 on: January 08, 2021, 05:58:18 PM »

I understand now, the metric is the swing required.

I wasn't missing much: the answer is just that PVI for Montana is
(20.9+22.6)/4 = 10.875 ~ 11

Hence R+11.

Wyoming's R+26 is absolutely insurmountable.
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