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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #25 on: December 12, 2020, 03:51:44 PM »

BUTTE COUNTY (Write-ins included in final percentages for both 2016 and 2020)
Biggs
2016: Trump 57.67% — Clinton 35.67% = R+ 22.00
2020: Trump 61.54% — Biden 36.25% = R+ 25.29
SWING: R+ 03.29

Chico
2016: Clinton 54.68% — Trump 32.85% = D+ 21.83   
2020: Biden 61.89% — Trump 34.96% = D+ 26.93
SWING: D+ 05.10

Gridley
2016: Trump 47.03% — Clinton 44.25% = R+ 02.78 
2020: Trump 51.13% — Biden 46.50% = R+ 04.63
SWING: R+ 01.85

Oroville
2016: Trump 53.47% — Clinton 36.76% = R+ 16.71 
2020: Trump 56.42% — Biden 40.39% = R+ 16.03
SWING: D+ 00.68

Paradise
2016: Trump 53.10% — Clinton 36.90% = R+ 16.20 
2020: Trump 59.61% — Biden 37.58% = R+ 22.03
SWING: R+ 05.38
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Skye
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« Reply #26 on: December 12, 2020, 04:04:35 PM »

Berkeley
2016: Clinton 89.09% — Trump 3.13% = D+ 85.96*
2020: Biden 93.73% — Trump 3.99% = D+ 89.74
SWING: D+ 03.78
*Jill Stein finished with 4.55% in second place ahead of Trump ("Sad!"), but used the D-R margin to keep the swings intact

Ah, good ol' Berkeley, where George W. Bush placed third (behind Ralph Nader) in 2000.
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #27 on: December 12, 2020, 04:13:28 PM »

MODOC COUNTY (Write-ins included in final percentages for both 2012 and 2016)
Alturas
2016: Trump 65.56% — Clinton 26.18% = R+ 39.38
2020: Trump 65.71% — Biden 30.66% = R+ 35.05
SWING: D+ 04.33
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
MONTEREY COUNTY (Write-ins included in final percentages for both 2012 and 2016)
Carmel-by-the-Sea
2016: Clinton 62.93% — Trump 30.08% = D+ 32.85  
2020: Biden 68.64% — Trump 29.65% = D+ 38.99
SWING: D+ 06.14

Del Rey Oaks
2016: Clinton 63.97% — Trump 27.83% = D+ 36.14  
2020: Biden 66.45% — Trump 31.26% = D+ 35.19
SWING: R+ 00.95

Gonzales
2016: Clinton 78.89% — Trump 15.92% = D+ 62.97  
2020: Biden 74.61% — Trump 23.23% = D+ 51.38
SWING: R+ 11.59

Greenfield
2016: Clinton 79.62% — Trump 14.25% = D+ 65.37  
2020: Biden 78.98% — Trump 18.55% = D+ 60.43
SWING: R+ 04.94

King City
2016: Clinton 68.74% — Trump 24.47% = D+ 44.27  
2020: Biden 66.81% — Trump 30.51% = D+ 36.30
SWING: R+ 07.97

Marina
2016: Clinton 66.35% — Trump 25.68% = D+ 40.67  
2020: Biden 69.94% — Trump 27.28% = D+ 42.66
SWING: D+ 01.99

Monterey
2016: Clinton 68.36% — Trump 24.08% = D+ 44.28  
2020: Biden 72.84% — Trump 24.79% = D+ 48.05
SWING: D+ 03.77

Pacific Grove
2016: Clinton 70.83% — Trump 22.05% = D+ 48.78  
2020: Biden 76.39% — Trump 21.63% = D+ 54.76
SWING: D+ 05.98

Salinas
2016: Clinton 71.71% — Trump 21.69% = D+ 50.02  
2020: Biden 72.53% — Trump 25.39% = D+ 47.14
SWING: R+ 02.88

Sand City
2016: Clinton 58.49% — Trump 27.67% = D+ 30.82  
2020: Biden 62.50% — Trump 33.50% = D+ 29.00
SWING: R+ 01.82

Seaside
2016: Clinton 71.09% — Trump 21.11% = D+ 49.98  
2020: Biden 73.21% — Trump 24.10% = D+ 49.11
SWING: R+ 00.87

Soledad
2016: Clinton 79.09% — Trump 14.18% = D+ 64.91  
2020: Biden 75.69% — Trump 21.97% = D+ 53.72
SWING: R+ 11.19

Another county sweep for Joe Biden in Monterey! Cheesy
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #28 on: December 12, 2020, 04:37:20 PM »

NAPA COUNTY (Write-ins included in final percentages for both 2016 and 2020)
American Canyon
2016: Clinton 70.70% — Trump 22.52% = D+ 48.18
2020: Biden 71.38% — Trump 26.65% = D+ 44.73
SWING: R+ 03.45

Calistoga
2016: Clinton 71.71% — Trump 20.98% = D+ 50.73
2020: Biden 77.53% — Trump 20.24% = D+ 57.29
SWING: D+ 06.56

Napa
2016: Clinton 64.45% — Trump 27.77% = D+ 36.68
2020: Biden 70.09% — Trump 27.56% = D+ 42.53
SWING: D+ 05.85

St. Helena
2016: Clinton 70.00% — Trump 23.14% = D+ 46.86
2020: Biden 75.21% — Trump 22.76% = D+ 52.45
SWING: D+ 05.59

Yountville
2016: Clinton 65.25% — Trump 29.02% = D+ 36.23
2020: Biden 69.73% — Trump 28.87% = D+ 40.86
SWING: D+ 04.63
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
PLACER COUNTY (Write-ins included in final percentages for 2012, 2016, and 2020)
Auburn
2012: Romney 50.90% — Obama 45.17% = R+ 05.73
2016: Clinton 45.65% — Trump 43.28% = D+ 02.37
2020: Biden 51.59% — Trump 45.64% = D+ 05.95
SWING (12-16): D+ 08.10
SWING (16-20): D+ 03.58

Colfax
2012: Romney 53.92% — Obama 41.37% = R+ 12.55
2016: Trump 52.87% — Clinton 36.14% = R+ 16.73
2020: Trump 52.49% — Biden 44.35% = R+ 08.14
SWING (12-16): R+ 04.18
SWING (16-20): D+ 08.59

Lincoln
2012: Romney 59.80% — Obama 37.94% = R+ 21.86
2016: Trump 53.88% — Clinton 38.27% = R+ 15.61
2020: Trump 54.38% — Biden 43.55% = R+ 10.83
SWING (12-16): D+ 06.25
SWING (16-20): D+ 04.78

Loomis
2012: Romney 65.13% — Obama 31.13% = R+ 34.00
2016: Trump 59.10% — Clinton 29.74% = R+ 29.36
2020: Trump 62.47% — Biden 34.70% = R+ 27.77
SWING (12-16): D+ 04.64
SWING (16-20): D+ 01.59

Rocklin
2012: Romney 58.75% — Obama 38.26% = R+ 20.49
2016: Trump 50.01% — Clinton 39.56% = R+ 10.45
2020: Trump 51.14% — Biden 46.25% = R+ 04.89
SWING (12-16): D+ 10.04
SWING (16-20): D+ 05.56

Roseville
2012: Romney 56.57% — Obama 40.77% = R+ 15.80
2016: Trump 48.71% — Clinton 42.03% = R+ 06.68
2020: Trump 49.49% — Biden 48.09% = R+ 01.40
SWING (12-16): D+ 09.12
SWING (16-20): D+ 05.28
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #29 on: December 12, 2020, 04:57:22 PM »

SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY (Write-ins included in final percentages for 2012, 2016, and 2020)
Arroyo Grande
2012: Romney 50.90% — Obama 45.89% = R+ 05.01
2016: Clinton 45.86% — Trump 42.98% = D+ 02.88
2020: Biden 54.32% — Trump 42.93% = D+ 11.39
SWING (12-16): D+ 07.89
SWING (16-20): D+ 08.51

Atascadero
2012: Romney 51.75% — Obama 44.13% = R+ 07.62
2016: Trump 46.66% — Clinton 42.49% = R+ 04.17
2020: Biden 49.37% — Trump 47.87% = D+ 01.50
SWING (12-16): D+ 03.45
SWING (16-20): D+ 05.67

El Paso de Robles
2012: Romney 55.89% — Obama 41.25% = R+ 14.64
2016: Trump 49.76% — Clinton 40.97% = R+ 08.79
2020: Trump 49.92% — Biden 47.68% = R+ 02.24
SWING (12-16): D+ 05.85
SWING (16-20): D+ 06.55

Grover Beach
2012: Obama 51.36% — Romney 44.27% = D+ 07.09
2016: Clinton 49.16% — Trump 39.38% = D+ 09.78
2020: Biden 54.44% — Trump 43.13% = D+ 11.31
SWING (12-16): D+ 02.69
SWING (16-20): D+ 01.53

Morro Bay
2012: Obama 57.59% — Romney 38.20% = D+ 19.39
2016: Clinton 55.60% — Trump 35.18% = D+ 20.42
2020: Biden 63.19% — Trump 34.64% = D+ 28.55
SWING (12-16): D+ 01.03
SWING (16-20): D+ 08.13

Pismo Beach
2012: Romney 49.91% — Obama 47.10% = R+ 02.81
2016: Clinton 48.00% — Trump 43.59% = D+ 04.41
2020: Biden 53.29% — Trump 44.70% = D+ 08.59
SWING (12-16): D+ 07.22
SWING (16-20): D+ 04.18

San Luis Obispo
2012: Obama 63.21% — Romney 31.85% = D+ 31.36
2016: Clinton 66.09% — Trump 21.65% = D+ 44.44
2020: Biden 74.84% — Trump 22.26% = D+ 52.58
SWING (12-16): D+ 13.08
SWING (16-20): D+ 08.14

..an almost county sweep for Uncle Joe in SLO! Ugh, maybe in 2024 we can flip the last red/Atlas blue domino left standing here. "We'll see what happens." Cheesy
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #30 on: December 12, 2020, 05:28:45 PM »

This will be my last big batch of results posted in this thread for awhile. Gotta try to get some sleep before work tonight, but wanted to share this last one with you all as Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr., made history here. Smiley 

SANTA BARBARA COUNTY (Write-ins included in final percentages for 2012, 2016, and 2020)
Buellton
2012: Romney 50.90% — Obama 45.64% = R+ 05.26
2016: Clinton 46.25% — Trump 44.55% = D+ 01.70
2020: Biden 54.92% — Trump 41.96% = D+ 12.96
SWING (12-16): D+ 06.96
SWING (16-20): D+ 11.26

Carpinteria
2012: Obama 64.13% — Romney 32.73% = D+ 31.40
2016: Clinton 65.97% — Trump 25.25% = D+ 40.42
2020: Biden 71.62% — Trump 25.65% = D+ 45.97
SWING (12-16): D+ 09.02
SWING (16-20): D+ 05.55

Goleta
2012: Obama 61.77% — Romney 34.54% = D+ 27.23
2016: Clinton 65.13% — Trump 25.93% = D+ 39.20
2020: Biden 71.62% — Trump 25.34% = D+ 46.28
SWING (12-16): D+ 11.97
SWING (16-20): D+ 07.08

Guadalupe
2012: Obama 73.28% — Romney 23.99% = D+ 49.29
2016: Clinton 71.40% — Trump 21.11% = D+ 50.29
2020: Biden 66.83% — Trump 29.88% = D+ 36.95
SWING (12-16): D+ 01.00
SWING (16-20): R+ 13.34

Lompoc
2012: Obama 50.81% — Romney 45.96% = D+ 04.85
2016: Clinton 50.65% — Trump 39.95% = D+ 10.70
2020: Biden 56.14% — Trump 40.64% = D+ 15.50
SWING (12-16): D+ 05.85
SWING (16-20): D+ 04.80

Santa Barbara
2012: Obama 71.14% — Romney 25.59% = D+ 45.55
2016: Clinton 73.14% — Trump 18.50% = D+ 54.64
2020: Biden 78.81% — Trump 18.65% = D+ 60.16
SWING (12-16): D+ 09.09
SWING (16-20): D+ 05.52

Santa Maria
2012: Obama 51.47% — Romney 46.04% = D+ 05.43
2016: Clinton 54.77% — Trump 37.90% = D+ 16.87
2020: Biden 56.85% — Trump 40.50% = D+ 16.35
SWING (12-16): D+ 11.44
SWING (16-20): R+ 00.52

Solvang
2012: Romney 55.31% — Obama 42.38% = R+ 12.93
2016: Trump 46.55% — Clinton 45.37% = R+ 01.18
2020: Biden 53.05% — Trump 44.19% = D+ 08.86
SWING (12-16): D+ 11.75
SWING (16-20): D+ 10.04
For the first time since its incorporation, Solvang has voted for a Democrat for President. Since 1988, every Republican presidential nominee has carried this city. Another engraving on Donald Trump's political tombstone is that he will become the first Republican to lose Solvang, California and lose every incorporated municipality in Santa Barbara County. What a great honor, Donnie! So. Much. Winning!

Put Santa Barbara County in the column for BIDEN COUNTY SWEEPS! #SantaBarbaraBiden Cheesy
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CityByTheValley
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« Reply #31 on: December 12, 2020, 06:54:27 PM »

Thanks for this. Very interesting data!

It's pretty funny that the Central San Jose council district was the most Republican in the city and indeed also more Republican than any municipality in the county...

I didn't even realize this until you mentioned it. It went from a 61 point margin to around 29 points, and indeed is now the most Republican part of the county despite being the center of San Jose. The Vietnamese love of Hillary/hate of 2016 Trump seriously was reversed and I'm sure the same types of trends happened in Orange County.

The Milpitas swing can’t be just from Vietnamese or Filipinos- neither group makes up more than 15-18% of the population there.

I think those groups are the largest two in Milpitas, no? You're right though, and come to think of it there are a lot of Chinese and Indians there as well. It does function as a moving spot for many techies who can't afford Cupertino/Sunnyvale and want a larger home given prices there are more like $500/sq ft versus $1,000/sq ft in most of the West Valley area. I think a similar dynamic will be at play in Fremont and we may see swings like this there. The swing still somewhat confuses me though because other places like this (Dublin, San Ramon, Pleasanton) seem to have swung to Biden.

Yeah let’s hope the Vietnamese and urban Latino swings were a one-time thing. I wonder which group was responsible for more of the swing? And I wonder what the ethnic breakdown of the Asian population in Districts 2, 3, 5, and 8 is...

I think the Vietnamese for sure swung more. District 7 is Latino majority, but I think the Vietnamese are higher propensity voters and clearly swung more than any other Asian group to Trump. It's funny that the best indicator for votes was still non-Hispanic White presence overall though.

In terms of ethnic breakdown, I'm not sure about Districts 2 and 3, but District 8 has a lot of Indians in the Evergreen area which has decent schools and nice homes. I'm somewhat surprised by the swing there since it is similar to 1, 6, 9, and 10 in terms of wealth, but the lack of non-Hispanic whites likely led to this happening. District 5 has a decent Filipino contingent, at least based off the city provided map.
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支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)
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« Reply #32 on: December 12, 2020, 08:20:21 PM »

The Milpitas swing can’t be just from Vietnamese or Filipinos- neither group makes up more than 15-18% of the population there.

I think those groups are the largest two in Milpitas, no? You're right though, and come to think of it there are a lot of Chinese and Indians there as well. It does function as a moving spot for many techies who can't afford Cupertino/Sunnyvale and want a larger home given prices there are more like $500/sq ft versus $1,000/sq ft in most of the West Valley area. I think a similar dynamic will be at play in Fremont and we may see swings like this there. The swing still somewhat confuses me though because other places like this (Dublin, San Ramon, Pleasanton) seem to have swung to Biden.

Those other East Bay cities are much whiter, and have fewer to no Vietnamese or Filipinos. It bothers me that so much of the Asian swing could’ve just been from Vietnamese and maybe Filipinos- but tbh it bothers me that the Asian R swing even happened at all. I suspect it was more of a turnout issue (45 turning out more newly naturalized immigrants and low-propensity voters), but there may have been actual Vietnamese American vote switchers if the overall Viet swing was large enough.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: December 12, 2020, 08:42:29 PM »

This took not too long but I got delayed since I wanted to break down San Jose by district to microanalyze all the swings given that it's basically an amalgamation of suburbs that range from Silicon Valley in the West to hills in the South and East.

Anyways, the swings in Santa Clara County were quite interesting. To paint a demographic picture, the county is 30% non-Hispanic White, 40% Asian, and 25% Latino with a population of around 2 million residents. It is also one of the wealthiest counties in the country with a median home values of $1 million and a median income of $125,000. I'll do a rundown based on city groupings and then breakdown San Jose in the end....

SNIP...

Santa Clara County
2016: 73.39 - 20.77 Clinton
2020: 72.64 - 25.23 Biden (R +5.20)

The county shifted over 5 points to the right, countering most of the smaller swings in the Bay Area. Milpitas and Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 actually were responsible for the entire swing in the area, with the county swinging 0.01 points leftward without them, speaking to how big the urban Latino and Vietnamese swings ended up being. The swing here interestingly makes Santa Clara County the only one out of the 20 wealthiest counties nationwide to move rightward, and indicates a need for Democrats to keep in touch with their urban constituents as much as they try to focus on new ground.


I just wanted to say, as someone who lived in Santa Clara County for a Year (Cupertino) back in the early 2010s with a Tech Sector contract temporary job project assignment, this was a fascinating and well written "Executive Level Summary" of Santa Clara County.

Also, for a relatively new poster this is clearly an effort level and high quality post--- Belated welcome to the Forum!

One item which may have impacted some of the larger swings among working-class Latino and Asian-American voters within Silicon Valley, is the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 employment picture.

There was an article I read several Months back (Politico?) that described the dual structure of employment.

Large Tech Facilities basically shuttered their doors, moved all of their direct employees to working remotely, while simultaneously paying working-class contract employees more heavily involved in Facility Services (Custodial, Food Service, etc...) for a period of time.

Now that arrangement has effectively ended in most tech facilities in the South Bay and direct tech sector employees are basically "permanently" working remotely and "support workers" are out of work and filing for unemployment.

Considering that many of these workers are effectively highly skilled within their occupational categories, and are effectively SMEs in working their respective trades within highly demanding Tech Sector SOWs and MSAs, there really isn't anywhere for them to go without taking significant pay cuts, especially with increased competition for jobs, with similar occupational categories in public schools also shut down.

Thoughts?
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #34 on: December 13, 2020, 12:13:06 AM »

Considering that many of these workers are effectively highly skilled within their occupational categories, and are effectively SMEs in working their respective trades within highly demanding Tech Sector SOWs and MSAs, there really isn't anywhere for them to go without taking significant pay cuts, especially with increased competition for jobs, with similar occupational categories in public schools also shut down.

Thoughts?

I'm guessing SME = Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, SOW = Source of Wealth/Work, and MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #35 on: December 13, 2020, 02:05:40 AM »

Considering that many of these workers are effectively highly skilled within their occupational categories, and are effectively SMEs in working their respective trades within highly demanding Tech Sector SOWs and MSAs, there really isn't anywhere for them to go without taking significant pay cuts, especially with increased competition for jobs, with similar occupational categories in public schools also shut down.

Thoughts?

I'm guessing SME = Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, SOW = Source of Wealth/Work, and MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area?

Close but not close to any Cigar:

SME= Subject Matter Expert
SOW= Scope of Work
MSA= Master Service Agreement

These are typical MNC 500 terms which are typical contract law sort of scenes...

Many of these companies shipped all of our MFG and Testing Ops Overseas in some cases (25) Yrs back....

I still work in a  Tech sector MFG Facility, despite the off-shoring and sub-contracting of jobs....

Still debates / arguments in the smoking & break areas of the Factory regarding "how bad was Trump really"....

Hell... was talking with fellow smokers in Houston, Texas when Trump was first becoming a "thang"
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #36 on: December 13, 2020, 02:28:38 AM »

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY (Write-ins included in final percentages for 2016 and 2020)

Antioch
2016: Clinton 68.25% — Trump 24.52% = D+ 43.73
2020: Biden 71.69% — Trump 26.20% = D+ 45.49
SWING: D+ 01.76

Brentwood
2016: Clinton 52.37% — Trump 39.21% = D+ 13.16
2020: Biden 57.77% — Trump 40.11% = D+ 17.66
SWING: D+ 04.50

Clayton
2016: Clinton 52.94% — Trump 37.50% = D+ 15.44
2020: Biden 60.19% — Trump 37.67% = D+ 22.52
SWING: D+ 07.08

Concord
2016: Clinton 64.35% — Trump 26.76% = D+ 37.59
2020: Biden 69.47% — Trump 28.06% = D+ 41.41
SWING: D+ 03.82

Danville
2016: Clinton 56.91% — Trump 34.06% = D+ 22.85
2020: Biden 63.38% — Trump 34.62% = D+ 28.76
SWING: D+ 05.91

El Cerrito
2016: Clinton 85.06% — Trump 7.66% = D+ 77.40
2020: Biden 88.85% — Trump 9.35% = D+ 79.50
SWING: D+ 02.10

Hercules
2016: Clinton 78.97% — Trump 15.58% = D+ 63.39
2020: Biden 78.50% — Trump 20.11% = D+ 58.39
SWING: R+ 05.00

Lafayette
2016: Clinton 70.18% — Trump 20.60% = D+ 49.58
2020: Biden 76.63% — Trump 21.10% = D+ 55.53
SWING: D+ 05.95

Martinez
2016: Clinton 63.86% — Trump 26.70% = D+ 37.16
2020: Biden 69.42% — Trump 27.96% = D+ 41.46
SWING: D+ 04.30

Moraga
2016: Clinton 67.25% — Trump 22.94% = D+ 44.31
2020: Biden 75.50% — Trump 22.24% = D+ 53.26
SWING: D+ 08.95

Oakley
2016: Clinton 54.87% — Trump 36.27% = D+ 18.60
2020: Biden 57.80% — Trump 39.75% = D+ 18.05
SWING: R+ 00.55

Orinda
2016: Clinton 72.25% — Trump 19.38% = D+ 52.87
2020: Biden 78.77% — Trump 19.33% = D+ 59.44
SWING: D+ 06.57

Pinole
2016: Clinton 73.83% — Trump 20.00% = D+ 53.83
2020: Biden 75.93% — Trump 22.28% = D+ 53.65
SWING: R+ 00.18

Pittsburg
2016: Clinton 75.87% — Trump 17.84% = D+ 58.03
2020: Biden 76.41% — Trump 21.55% = D+ 54.86
SWING: R+ 03.17

Pleasant Hill
2016: Clinton 67.80% — Trump 22.82% = D+ 44.98
2020: Biden 72.94% — Trump 24.62% = D+ 48.32
SWING: D+ 03.34

Richmond
2016: Clinton 85.76% — Trump 7.94% = D+ 77.82
2020: Biden 87.04% — Trump 11.13% = D+ 75.91
SWING: R+ 01.91

San Pablo
2016: Clinton 86.35% — Trump 7.97% = D+ 78.38
2020: Biden 83.83% — Trump 14.24% = D+ 69.59
SWING: R+ 08.79

San Ramon
2016: Clinton 65.40% — Trump 27.05% = D+ 38.35
2020: Biden 70.42% — Trump 27.68% = D+ 42.74
SWING: D+ 04.39

Walnut Creek
2016: Clinton 68.02% — Trump 24.00% = D+ 44.02
2020: Biden 74.00% — Trump 24.23% = D+ 49.77
SWING: D+ 05.75

Fourth consecutive county sweep for Democrats in Contra Costa County as no Republican presidential nominee has won a city here since 2004 when George W. Bush carried Brentwood, Clayton, and Danville.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #37 on: December 14, 2020, 04:14:26 AM »

Sacramento County would be interesting.  I gather Trump won Citrus Heights and unincorporated while Biden everything else so interesting to see that one.  Marin and Santa Cruz counties I am assuming are all Biden blowouts.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #38 on: December 14, 2020, 08:37:56 AM »

Sorry if it's already been mentioned, but how did Cupertino vote in 2020 compared to 2016?

Off the top of my head, almost one quarter of its population is south-Asian (Indian/Bangladeshi). 
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #39 on: December 14, 2020, 11:22:24 AM »

Sorry if it's already been mentioned, but how did Cupertino vote in 2020 compared to 2016?

Off the top of my head, almost one quarter of its population is south-Asian (Indian/Bangladeshi). 

Swung 2.0% R

Cupertino (63.15% Asian) Santa Clara County
2016: Clinton 74.08% — Trump 19.98% = D+ 54.10   
2020: Biden 75.00% — Trump 22.90% = D+ 52.10

SWING: R+ 02.00
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #40 on: December 14, 2020, 12:01:04 PM »

Sacramento County would be interesting.  I gather Trump won Citrus Heights and unincorporated while Biden everything else so interesting to see that one. 
That would be my guess too as a Sacramento County resident. I’m just waiting until the statement of the vote comes out rather than trying to figure out precincts.
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semocrat08
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« Reply #41 on: December 14, 2020, 12:31:37 PM »

Sacramento County would be interesting.  I gather Trump won Citrus Heights and unincorporated while Biden everything else so interesting to see that one.  Marin and Santa Cruz counties I am assuming are all Biden blowouts.

Here are the official results for Sacramento County. I didn't include the swings since write-in votes were not made available by city in 2016 (and there were a lot here; write-ins made up 1.72% of the final countywide vote in 2016), so take the 2016 results with a grain of salt. Write-ins ARE, however, included in the 2020 final percentages.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY
Citrus Heights
2016: Trump 50.56% — Clinton 42.12% = R+ 08.44
2020: Trump 50.89% — Biden 46.19% = R+ 04.70

Elk Grove
2016: Clinton 60.69% — Trump 33.49% = D+ 27.20
2020: Biden 62.50% — Trump 35.42% = D+ 27.08

Folsom
2016: Clinton 46.59% — Trump 46.09% = D+ 00.50
2020: Biden 52.17% — Trump 45.25% = D+ 06.92

Galt
2016: Trump 50.44% — Clinton 42.76% = R+ 07.68
2020: Trump 53.17% — Biden 44.02% = R+ 09.15

Isleton
2016: Clinton 55.29% — Trump 37.25% = D+ 18.04
2020: Biden 49.53% — Trump 47.04% = D+ 02.49

Rancho Cordova
2016: Clinton 53.98% — Trump 38.31% = D+ 15.67
2020: Biden 56.17% — Trump 41.12% = D+ 15.05

Sacramento
2016: Clinton 73.82% — Trump 20.01% = D+ 53.81
2020: Biden 75.09% — Trump 22.44% = D+ 52.65
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semocrat08
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« Reply #42 on: December 14, 2020, 12:41:36 PM »

Mileslunn, here is Santa Cruz County for you Smiley write-ins by city in 2016 were fortunately made available here, so the swings are more accurate.

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Capitola
2016: Clinton 72.96% — Trump 18.88% = D+ 54.08
2020: Biden 77.01% — Trump 20.01% = D+ 57.00
SWING: D+ 02.92

Santa Cruz
2016: Clinton 81.31% — Trump 9.66% = D+ 71.65
2020: Biden 85.92% — Trump 10.88% = D+ 75.04
SWING: D+ 03.39

Scotts Valley
2016: Clinton 63.52% — Trump 27.38% = D+ 36.14
2020: Biden 70.42% — Trump 26.31% = D+ 44.11
SWING: D+ 07.97

Watsonville
2016: Clinton 80.78% — Trump 13.60% = D+ 67.18
2020: Biden 80.69% — Trump 17.19% = D+ 63.50
SWING: R+ 03.68
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semocrat08
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« Reply #43 on: December 14, 2020, 01:09:46 PM »

HUMBOLDT COUNTY (Write-ins included in the final percentages for 2012, 2016, and 2020)

Arcata
2012: Obama 75.15% — Romney 12.43% = D+ 62.72
2016: Clinton 71.29% — Trump 11.67% = D+ 59.62
2020: Biden 84.46% — Trump 11.62% = D+ 72.84
SWING (12-16): R+ 03.10
SWING (16-20): D+ 13.22

Blue Lake
2012: Obama 64.11% — Romney 26.80% = D+ 37.31
2016: Clinton 60.51% — Trump 24.62% = D+ 35.89
2020: Biden 73.64% — Trump 23.64% = D+ 50.00
SWING (12-16): R+ 01.42
SWING (16-20): D+ 14.11

Eureka
2012: Obama 61.98% — Romney 31.18% = D+ 30.80
2016: Clinton 57.58% — Trump 28.38% = D+ 29.20
2020: Biden 69.03% — Trump 27.67% = D+ 41.36
SWING (12-16): R+ 01.60
SWING (16-20): D+ 12.16

Ferndale
2012: Obama 52.56% — Romney 43.85% = D+ 08.71
2016: Clinton 48.38% — Trump 40.70% = D+ 07.68
2020: Biden 52.20% — Trump 45.02% = D+ 07.18
SWING (12-16): R+ 01.03
SWING (16-20): R+ 00.50

Fortuna
2012: Romney 50.46% — Obama 45.62% = R+ 04.84
2016: Trump 48.75% — Clinton 40.10% = R+ 08.65
2020: Trump 51.25% — Biden 45.25% = R+ 06.00
SWING (12-16): R+ 03.81
SWING (16-20): D+ 02.65

Rio Dell
2012: Romney 49.14% — Obama 45.72% = R+ 03.42
2016: Trump 49.60% — Clinton 36.46% = R+ 13.14
2020: Trump 56.23% — Biden 40.76% = R+ 15.47
SWING (12-16): R+ 09.72
SWING (16-20): R+ 02.33

Trinidad
2012: Obama 75.57% — Romney 19.00% = D+ 56.57
2016: Clinton 69.72% — Trump 17.43% = D+ 52.29
2020: Biden 80.45% — Trump 16.92% = D+ 63.53
SWING (12-16): R+ 04.28
SWING (16-20): D+ 11.24
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #44 on: December 14, 2020, 01:21:32 PM »

Sacramento County would be interesting.  I gather Trump won Citrus Heights and unincorporated while Biden everything else so interesting to see that one.  Marin and Santa Cruz counties I am assuming are all Biden blowouts.

Here are the official results for Sacramento County. I didn't include the swings since write-in votes were not made available by city in 2016 (and there were a lot here; write-ins made up 1.72% of the final countywide vote in 2016), so take the 2016 results with a grain of salt. Write-ins ARE, however, included in the 2020 final percentages.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY
Citrus Heights
2016: Trump 50.56% — Clinton 42.12% = R+ 08.44
2020: Trump 50.89% — Biden 46.19% = R+ 04.70

Elk Grove
2016: Clinton 60.69% — Trump 33.49% = D+ 27.20
2020: Biden 62.50% — Trump 35.42% = D+ 27.08

Folsom
2016: Clinton 46.59% — Trump 46.09% = D+ 00.50
2020: Biden 52.17% — Trump 45.25% = D+ 06.92

Galt
2016: Trump 50.44% — Clinton 42.76% = R+ 07.68
2020: Trump 53.17% — Biden 44.02% = R+ 09.15

Isleton
2016: Clinton 55.29% — Trump 37.25% = D+ 18.04
2020: Biden 49.53% — Trump 47.04% = D+ 02.49

Rancho Cordova
2016: Clinton 53.98% — Trump 38.31% = D+ 15.67
2020: Biden 56.17% — Trump 41.12% = D+ 15.05

Sacramento
2016: Clinton 73.82% — Trump 20.01% = D+ 53.81
2020: Biden 75.09% — Trump 22.44% = D+ 52.65

Awesome! Trump’s support in Folsom went down! Huzzah! Pity that it was the only city where that was true.
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« Reply #45 on: December 14, 2020, 01:59:27 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2020, 02:05:52 PM by DrScholl »

Los Angeles County, CA results (by city)
                        Biden        Trump
Agoura Hills   63.17%   35.03%   3.75%
Alhambra   70.75%   27.42%   -7.02%
Arcadia   59.84%   38.75%   1.74%
Artesia   61.69%   36.26%   -13.66%
Avalon   59.40%   37.89%   9.88%
Azusa   66.72%   30.97%   -5.59%
Baldwin Park   73.61%   24.33%   -15.71%
Bell   78.94%   18.44%   -15.97%
Bell Gardens   80.10%   18.13%   -17.35%
Bellflower   67.15%   30.43%   -7.64%
Beverly Hills   55.07%   43.86%   -19.97%
Bradbury   51.70%   46.90%   5.58%
Burbank   67.63%   30.35%   -1.81%
Calabasas   63.75%   34.52%   -1.06%
Carson   75.09%   23.08%   -10.79%
Cerritos   62.49%   35.82%   -4.46%
Claremont   68.07%   29.83%   1.94%
Commerce   78.35%   19.37%   -12.35%
Compton   86.58%   11.00%   -11.87%
Covina   60.91%   36.95%   -1.00%
Cudahy   80.01%   16.95%   -16.53%
Culver City   83.25%   14.83%   1.51%
Diamond Bar   58.92%   39.54%   -2.14%
Downey   66.52%   31.39%   -9.06%
Duarte   67.07%   31.00%   -3.22%
El Monte   70.28%   27.91%   -17.96%
El Segundo   63.59%    ]33.96%   6.47%
Gardena   75.38%   22.46%   -10.16%
Glendale   58.93%   39.21%   -11.04%
Glendora   48.57%   49.10%   5.82%
Hawaiian Gardens   72.12%   25.30%   -15.91%
Hawthorne   78.28%   19.39%   -9.35%
Hermosa Beach   69.35%   27.89%   4.91%
Hidden Hills   58.33%   40.18%   -3.10%
Huntington Park   80.91%   17.46%   -15.92%
Industry   45.45%   46.59%   -22.30%
Inglewood   88.62%   9.56%   -6.85%
Irwindale   69.78%   29.35%   -10.51%
La Canada Flintridge   62.18%   36.18%   6.11%
La Habra Heights   43.88%   54.49%   6.22%
La Mirada   53.47%   44.57%   -1.36%
La Puente   73.23%   24.28%   -13.96%
La Verne   50.53%   47.52%   3.71%
Lakewood   60.37%   37.45%   1.02%
Lancaster   57.71%   39.54%   5.88%
Lawndale   72.35%   25.30%   -11.09%
Lomita   58.46%   38.86%   1.41%
Long Beach   72.49%   25.01%   -0.67%
Los Angeles   76.56%   21.43%   -6.96%
Lynwood   82.00%   15.10%   -16.71%
Malibu   66.20%   31.85%   0.04%
Manhattan Beach   66.43%   31.14%   3.53%
Maywood   80.02%   17.20%   -17.33%
Monrovia   65.86%   31.71%   3.00%
Montebello   73.96%   23.92%   -9.61%
Monterey Park   68.09%   30.27%   -7.66%
Norwalk   69.27%   28.42%   -11.79%
Palmdale   63.14%   34.56%   -1.53%
Palos Verdes Estates   54.84%   42.94%   6.42%
Paramount   78.32%   19.14%   -14.43%
Pasadena   77.00%   20.84%   0.06%
Pico Rivera   74.81%   23.24%   -12.13%
Pomona   70.82%   26.64%   -9.32%
Rancho Palos Verdes   57.65%   40.15%   6.40%
Redondo Beach   67.56%   30.25%   5.62%
Rolling Hills   43.02%   54.86%   11.77%
Rolling Hills Estates   55.61%   42.58%   8.24%
Rosemead   66.91%   31.62%   -19.95%
San Dimas   50.27%   47.67%   1.66%
San Fernando   76.59%   21.05%   -11.57%
San Gabriel   66.01%   32.08%   -7.53%
San Marino   59.26%   38.71%   5.00%
Santa Clarita   53.07%   44.93%   4.94%
Santa Fe Springs   67.71%   29.82%   -11.32%
Santa Monica   81.45%   16.76%   -1.07%
Sierra Madre   65.89%   31.55%   5.86%
Signal Hill   73.46%   24.26%   1.45%
South El Monte   73.52%   23.81%   -18.53%
South Gate   78.58%   19.08%   -15.62%
South Pasadena   78.98%   18.80%   3.83%
Temple City   59.98%   38.24%   -1.88%
Torrance   60.23%   37.53%   3.27%
Vernon   68.04%   31.96%   -20.17%
Walnut   61.51%   37.04%   -4.44%
West Covina   65.01%   33.23%   -6.67%
West Hollywood   82.20%   16.42%   -6.75%
Westlake Village   57.51%   40.45%   4.79%
Whittier   62.74%   35.01%   -0.50%

I apologize if I made any errors with the colors anywhere. This is a big one.

There are no real surprises here when you look at overall trends everywhere else. Los Angeles County has a great deal of restaurant and retail jobs in the suburban areas that swung towards Trump, so Trump campaigning on re-opening everything probably helped him a great deal. Most of Biden's gains were in areas with higher white populations.
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semocrat08
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« Reply #46 on: December 14, 2020, 02:05:09 PM »

KERN COUNTY (Write-ins included in final percentages for both 2016 and 2020)

Arvin
2016: Clinton 79.55% — Trump 15.43% = D+ 64.12
2020: Biden 74.39% — Trump 23.27% = D+ 51.12
SWING: R+ 13.00

Bakersfield
2016: Trump 49.99% — Clinton 43.68% = R+ 06.31
2020: Trump 50.41% — Biden 47.25% = R+ 03.16
SWING: D+ 03.15

California City
2016: Trump 54.81% — Clinton 37.85% = R+ 16.96
2020: Trump 50.56% — Biden 46.52% = R+ 04.04
SWING: D+ 12.92

Delano
2016: Clinton 75.52% — Trump 19.50% = D+ 56.02
2020: Biden 67.89% — Trump 30.29% = D+ 37.60
SWING: R+ 18.42

Maricopa
2016: Trump 82.02% — Clinton 11.67% = R+ 70.35
2020: Trump 80.10% — Biden 17.80% = R+ 62.30
SWING: D+ 08.05

McFarland
2016: Clinton 76.34% — Trump 17.39% = D+ 58.95
2020: Biden 71.42% — Trump 25.96% = D+ 45.46
SWING: R+ 13.49

Ridgecrest
2016: Trump 59.25% — Clinton 29.47% = R+ 29.78
2020: Trump 59.90% — Biden 35.49% = R+ 24.41
SWING: D+ 05.37

Shafter
2016: Clinton 53.64% — Trump 40.64% = D+ 13.00
2020: Biden 49.53% — Trump 48.42% = D+ 01.11
SWING: R+ 11.89

Taft
2016: Trump 79.96% — Clinton 16.81% = R+ 63.15
2020: Trump 79.46% — Biden 18.45% = R+ 61.01
SWING: D+ 02.14

Tehachapi
2016: Trump 62.48% — Clinton 28.65% = R+ 33.83
2020: Trump 63.15% — Biden 33.98% = R+ 29.17
SWING: D+ 04.66

Wasco
2016: Clinton 60.67% — Trump 31.75% = D+ 28.92
2020: Biden 56.57% — Trump 41.03% = D+ 15.54
SWING: R+ 13.38

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
*Note: Jo Jorgensen received an usually high 3.46% of the vote in Ridgecrest. I think I saw somewhere that this city was also Gary Johnson's best city in California in 2016 (he got 7.36% of the vote here). Anyone know anything about this place and its libertarian penchant?
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« Reply #47 on: December 14, 2020, 02:09:48 PM »

Los Angeles County, CA results (by city)
                        Biden        Trump
Beverly Hills   55.07%   43.86%   -19.97%

Dear Lord, what happened here?! Beverly Hills is like the epitome of the white latte liberal city that generally swung to Biden this year. I remember it swinging pretty Republican in 2008 and 2012 but then it swung pretty hard to Hillary in 2016, now only to swing against Biden pretty substantially. What the heck is going on in 90210?! Sad
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DrScholl
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« Reply #48 on: December 14, 2020, 02:19:29 PM »

*Note: Jo Jorgensen received an usually high 3.46% of the vote in Ridgecrest. I think I saw somewhere that this city was also Gary Johnson's best city in California in 2016 (he got 7.36% of the vote here). Anyone know anything about this place and its libertarian penchant?

Isolated places often have more people who prefer third parties.

Los Angeles County, CA results (by city)
                        Biden        Trump
Beverly Hills   55.07%   43.86%   -19.97%

Dear Lord, what happened here?! Beverly Hills is like the epitome of the white latte liberal city that generally swung to Biden this year. I remember it swinging pretty Republican in 2008 and 2012 but then it swung pretty hard to Hillary in 2016, now only to swing against Biden pretty substantially. What the heck is going on in 90210?! Sad

It's most certainly the closures of businesses and the rent moratoriums. Lots of property owners live in Beverly Hills and hold deeds throughout the county.
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支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)
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« Reply #49 on: December 14, 2020, 02:39:43 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2020, 02:44:22 PM by khuzifenq »

Los Angeles County, CA results (by city)

...
Los Angeles   76.56%   21.43%   -6.96%
...

I apologize if I made any errors with the colors anywhere. This is a big one.

There are no real surprises here when you look at overall trends everywhere else. Los Angeles County has a great deal of restaurant and retail jobs in the suburban areas that swung towards Trump, so Trump campaigning on re-opening everything probably helped him a great deal. Most of Biden's gains were in areas with higher white populations.

Oof, Los Angeles proper swung 7% R... I really don’t know how you can argue that COVID-19 didn’t help Trump electorally.
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