Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Benjamin Frank]

Finstad +4.15 with write-ins included; +4.17 w/o write-ins. It was Hagedorn +3.07 & Trump +10.1 in 2020.

I wonder if Dan Feehan would have won.

[philly09]

Brad Finstad GOP   60,261   51.1%
Jeff Ettinger DEM   55,341   46.9

Still a little bit of Olmstead and Nicollet left.

[MT Treasurer]

It's interesting how mediocre the GOP's special election performances have been so far during the Biden era, especially when compared to how the Democrats did post-Trump inauguration leading up to the 2018 midterms. The KS-04 special in 2017 saw a 26 point shift leftward, SC-05 saw a 17 point shift, and PA-18, which voted for Trump by nearly 20 points, was an outright flip. We've seen nothing close to that so far from the Republicans and yet we're supposed to believe that they're going to have a 2010-style red wave election victory.

Yes, this is a very important point — were you never surprised by the magnitude of those shifts, esp. when comparing them with the November results?

Democrats won the HPV by ~7 points in November 2018, a swing of about 8 (House PV) or 5 (presidential PV) percentage points from 2016, whereas their overperformances in those special elections tended to be at least twice as large. Now it’s up to you -

Hypothesis I (conventional interpretation) — The swing in those special elections was particularly pronounced mostly because the more energized party (quite clearly the Democrats in 2018) tends to turn out at a higher rate in special elections.

Hypothesis II (unconventional interpretation) — The swing in those special elections was particularly pronounced mostly due to unrepresentative turnout patterns which speak to a fundamental change in party coalitions in a way that benefits Democrats more so than to different levels of base engagement/excitement.

Can you make a case for hypothesis I? Sure. Can you definitely rule out hypothesis II? I don’t think so.

This is where primary turnout comes into play, and this is where there has been a marked shift in favor of Republicans since 2018/2020. Make of that what you will (we’ll all find out soon enough).

Even accounting for a potential "inherent D bias" in special elections, however, I agree that the HPV will be a lot closer to GOP +1-2 than +4-6, resembling 2016 more so than 2010/2014, but still a problematic outcome for Democrats because they likely still lose the House, a few swing state governorships, and (in my opinion) the Senate even if the popular vote is fairly close overall.

[Adam Griffin]

It's interesting how mediocre the GOP's special election performances have been so far during the Biden era, especially when compared to how the Democrats did post-Trump inauguration leading up to the 2018 midterms. The KS-04 special in 2017 saw a 26 point shift leftward, SC-05 saw a 17 point shift, and PA-18, which voted for Trump by nearly 20 points, was an outright flip. We've seen nothing close to that so far from the Republicans and yet we're supposed to believe that they're going to have a 2010-style red wave election victory.

Yes, this is a very important point — were you never surprised by the magnitude of those shifts, esp. when comparing them with the November results?

Democrats won the HPV by ~7 points in November 2018, a swing of about 8 (House PV) or 5 (presidential PV) percentage points from 2016, whereas their overperformances in those special elections tended to be at least twice as large.

Just for the record, Democrats won the HPV by closer to 9 points (53.4-44.8; D+8.6) in 2018. Not that it necessarily disproves your assertion, but it's a fairly big difference.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter because even if we lose MN special Walz is on the ballot in Nov and we can win the seat I am counting on that and all our D's will be on the ballot same with FL 13 even if we lose that we can win it but it's an R seat

The good news is Kleefisch lost

[Gracile]

It's interesting how mediocre the GOP's special election performances have been so far during the Biden era, especially when compared to how the Democrats did post-Trump inauguration leading up to the 2018 midterms. The KS-04 special in 2017 saw a 26 point shift leftward, SC-05 saw a 17 point shift, and PA-18, which voted for Trump by nearly 20 points, was an outright flip. We've seen nothing close to that so far from the Republicans and yet we're supposed to believe that they're going to have a 2010-style red wave election victory.

Yes, this is a very important point — were you never surprised by the magnitude of those shifts, esp. when comparing them with the November results?

Democrats won the HPV by ~7 points in November 2018, a swing of about 8 (House PV) or 5 (presidential PV) percentage points from 2016, whereas their overperformances in those special elections tended to be at least twice as large.

Just for the record, Democrats won the HPV by closer to 9 points (53.4-44.8; D+8.6) in 2018. Not that it necessarily disproves your assertion, but it's a fairly big difference.

I assume that figure is an estimate to account for the high number of uncontested Democratic House seats in 2018 - adjusting for this would undoubtedly put the final HPV margin below 8.6%.

[Brittain33]

Where’s SnowLabrador?

[SnowLabrador]

Where’s SnowLabrador?

I was asleep.

[Brittain33]

Where’s SnowLabrador?

I was asleep.

We are all looking forward to your outlook for November following yesterday’s special election!

[Xing]

So are there any more votes left to count, or is 4.2% the final margin? If so, definitely a decent outcome for Democrats, though the higher turnout for Republicans in Wisconsin shouldn’t be discounted as a data point, and I don’t see why NC would be a better pick-up opportunity than WI. I’d say that if the midterms were held today, there’s a good chance it would look more like a neutral year than a red wave, but Democrats shouldn’t get cocky (in the same way Republicans seemed to after 2021), since there are still three months to go, and things could start to look better again for Republicans. Not going to shift my expectations much just yet, though if things continue to look this way in October, I might.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So are there any more votes left to count, or is 4.2% the final margin? If so, definitely a decent outcome for Democrats, though the higher turnout for Republicans in Wisconsin shouldn’t be discounted as a data point, and I don’t see why NC would be a better pick-up opportunity than WI. I’d say that if the midterms were held today, there’s a good chance it would look more like a neutral year than a red wave, but Democrats shouldn’t get cocky (in the same way Republicans seemed to after 2021), since there are still three months to go, and things could start to look better again for Republicans. Not going to shift my expectations much just yet, though if things continue to look this way in October, I might.

The Ukranian war helps Rs but Biden killed AL Zawahri and another Taliban leader after Rs said that Taliban would attack us if they took power in Afghanistan that didn't come true, there has been zero terrorist attacks since Taliban took over, this leaves no doubt Bin Laden was taken out by OBAMA, plus gadls prices are going down

Kleefisch isn't the Nominee for Gov Johnson is much weaker since Michel's is the Nominee

We can win MN 1 in Nov when Gov Walz is on the ballot and R turnout is more than D's in the primary because Females vote for Rs in the primary and D's in the GE, they did it here they got rid of Sullivan the stronger opponent and Pritzker got Bailey whom did this females, not white men, same on PA R Primary Females like Dr Oz and got rid of McCormick and MD the females voted for Cox but lesser degree because of Schultz alot of Atlas users forget we have an even split in this nation 150 Females and 150 men and most females and Minorities are D

[SnowLabrador]

Where’s SnowLabrador?

I was asleep.

We are all looking forward to your outlook for November following yesterday’s special election!

I don't think the special election is a bad sign for Democrats, but it's not of much use when you consider that Republican turnout in Wisconsin was through the roof.

[Brittain33]

Where’s SnowLabrador?

I was asleep.

We are all looking forward to your outlook for November following yesterday’s special election!

I don't think the special election is a bad sign for Democrats, but it's not of much use when you consider that Republican turnout in Wisconsin was through the roof.

Thanks, this was what we had been missing.

[wbrocks67]

So are there any more votes left to count, or is 4.2% the final margin? If so, definitely a decent outcome for Democrats, though the higher turnout for Republicans in Wisconsin shouldn’t be discounted as a data point, and I don’t see why NC would be a better pick-up opportunity than WI. I’d say that if the midterms were held today, there’s a good chance it would look more like a neutral year than a red wave, but Democrats shouldn’t get cocky (in the same way Republicans seemed to after 2021), since there are still three months to go, and things could start to look better again for Republicans. Not going to shift my expectations much just yet, though if things continue to look this way in October, I might.

I get people don't want to give a "W" to the Democrats, but objectively, an R+4 result last night is a terrific result for Democrats. They nearly duplicated their 2020 performance which was a D+3 year. Democrats anywhere close to a D+3 year is pretty stunning during a Biden midterm where Rs have been huffing and puffing about a red wave.

Not just that, but turnout was higher in the bluer / suburban areas which continues to show that Democrats are not only engaged, but keeping up with (and even expanding) their college+ white base, which again, Rs on here told me that the GOP would win some back again.

Also not sure why Wisconsin turnout keeps getting brought up when Republicans had a very contentious GOV primary on their side while Democrats really had no reason to come out once Barnes was consolidated for the nominee.

[UncleSam]

Special is definitely good for Dems, indicates that as of now there is a sizable portion of the base super energized over abortion.

[Xing]

So are there any more votes left to count, or is 4.2% the final margin? If so, definitely a decent outcome for Democrats, though the higher turnout for Republicans in Wisconsin shouldn’t be discounted as a data point, and I don’t see why NC would be a better pick-up opportunity than WI. I’d say that if the midterms were held today, there’s a good chance it would look more like a neutral year than a red wave, but Democrats shouldn’t get cocky (in the same way Republicans seemed to after 2021), since there are still three months to go, and things could start to look better again for Republicans. Not going to shift my expectations much just yet, though if things continue to look this way in October, I might.

I get people don't want to give a "W" to the Democrats, but objectively, an R+4 result last night is a terrific result for Democrats. They nearly duplicated their 2020 performance which was a D+3 year. Democrats anywhere close to a D+3 year is pretty stunning during a Biden midterm where Rs have been huffing and puffing about a red wave.

Not just that, but turnout was higher in the bluer / suburban areas which continues to show that Democrats are not only engaged, but keeping up with (and even expanding) their college+ white base, which again, Rs on here told me that the GOP would win some back again.

Also not sure why Wisconsin turnout keeps getting brought up when Republicans had a very contentious GOV primary on their side while Democrats really had no reason to come out once Barnes was consolidated for the nominee.

If the election were next week, I’d agree that the Democrats would be headed for a better night than expected, but since there are three months left, it’s important to be cautious.

As for Wisconsin, the competitiveness of the gubernatorial primary partially explains the differential in turnout, but it was still pretty large, and we didn’t see the same gap in Minnesota.

[Senator Incitatus]

So in the end this turned out to be exactly where I expected. No change in outlook whatsoever.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I recall having been reliably informed by the good blue avatars of this wonderful forum that the NE-01 underperformance was solely due to Fortenberry's scandal carrying over to the next special election somehow. I wonder what the excuse will be this time. Perhaps this time, too, voters confused Finstad with the old representative and thought he was dead.

It'd be interesting to see Politician try to spin this but shockingly he disappeared two days ago. Just like ElectionsGuy disappeared in June.

[Devils30]

Hot take: With GOP's underperformance even compared to 2020 in suburbs, is NC a more likely Senate flip than WI?

Another hot take: Texas Governor more likely to flip than Ohio Senate. Suburban trends are real.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not that it matters much but the MN-01 margin has narrowed to 4.0% from 4.2%. Not sure if it is new votes or just post election canvasing that changed.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

[Minnesota Mike]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2004.

[wbrocks67]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2006.

This wasn't "expected" though. Most prognosticators had it Likely R, and given that this is a Democratic midterm with Rs constantly telling me about Bidens approval, inflation, gas prices, etc., an R winning by 4.0 when they won by 3 in 2020 in a D+4 prez/+3 house year, is a terrible result for Republicans.

Not just that, but if the Republican trends are real, you'd expect it be closer to Trumps +10 and not Hagedorns +3.

Bottom line IMO here is that we've now had numerous results that shown that this doesn't look like a red wave year at all, and Democrats are clearly engaged, with strong turnout in the blue areas of this district.

It's too bad Ds didn't put more effort here. Glad they aren't making the same mistake in NY-19.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2004.

If a devastatingly large red wave was coming, then they would’ve won this district by far more than just 4 points. They didn’t and that’s why the results were good for the Democrats.

[Minnesota Mike]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2006.

This wasn't "expected" though. Most prognosticators had it Likely R, and given that this is a Democratic midterm with Rs constantly telling me about Bidens approval, inflation, gas prices, etc., an R winning by 4.0 when they won by 3 in 2020 in a D+4 prez/+3 house year, is a terrible result for Republicans.

Not just that, but if the Republican trends are real, you'd expect it be closer to Trumps +10 and not Hagedorns +3.

Bottom line IMO here is that we've now had numerous results that shown that this doesn't look like a red wave year at all, and Democrats are clearly engaged, with strong turnout in the blue areas of this district.

It's too bad Ds didn't put more effort here. Glad they aren't making the same mistake in NY-19.

There is a difference between reality and the hive mind of election enthusiasts. Reality is the "red wave" is likely either wishful thinking or people who clung to one data point (Biden midterm) without looking at other factors. Just because people are surprised by the result does not make it impressive.