Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[coloradocowboi]

This will be a VERY low turn-out election. Turner will be the front runner in a fractured field, and the establishment lane sure looks like it will be crowded.

Yeah the delusion about this is unreal. I don't think she's a lock, but I think all the people who just assume she's polarizing and bound to lose this district are 100% trippin. She starts as the front-runner for sure, unless the establishment lines up ASAP behind a credible challenger (i.e. not the party chair of Cuyahoga county lol)

Yeah, but she’s pretty unpopular and it’s to the point where folks will rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her in the unlikely event that she looks like one of the frontrunners.  It’s not an ideological thing, she’s just spent the past years burning every bridge in sight and now it’s gonna come back to bite her.  You might be able to get a Justice Dem elected by finding some Cori Bush-type pastor or community activist and then running a stealth campaign, but Turner doesn’t really have serious chance of winning.

Can we get some receipts about this y'all, because I really only hear it on this forum and I want to know specifically what Nina's done to alienate the local Dem base in Cleveland?

[GALeftist]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

[redjohn]

Turner's the very clear front-runner. Obviously it's extremely premature to discuss any aspirations for higher office she has, but if she wins this race she has a very bright future ahead of her.

It'll be nice to have another progressive in Congress.

[Not Me, Us]

Turner's the very clear front-runner. Obviously it's extremely premature to discuss any aspirations for higher office she has, but if she wins this race she has a very bright future ahead of her.

It'll be nice to have another progressive in Congress.

While I agree that she's probably the frontrunner for now, she has no future beyond this House seat. Ohio is only getting less friendly to Democrats, especially one like Turner, so she has no path to statewide office. She doesn't really have nay national appeal either, especially compared to other Squad members like AOC and Ayanna Pressley.

[GALeftist]

She's also been endorsed by the Ohio state senate minority leader Kenny Yuko fwiw.

[brucejoel99]

Turner's the very clear front-runner.

I wouldn't go that far yet. She's got the national name, yes, but she's a big progressive in a district that hasn't been all that progressive to date. She's also gonna be going up against whomever Fudge & the Cuyahoga Democratic Party put their support behind, & that sure as hell won't be Turner. That's carried a TON of weight in this district before. This'll certainly be a fascinating & interesting primary to watch, though, but Turner definitely has an uphill battle in it.

[Donerail]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

[GALeftist]

Turner's the very clear front-runner.

I wouldn't go that far yet. She's got the national name, yes, but she's a big progressive in a district that hasn't been all that progressive to date. She's also gonna be going up against whomever Fudge & the Cuyahoga Democratic Party put their support behind, & that sure as hell won't be Turner. That's carried a TON of weight in this district before. This'll certainly be a fascinating & interesting primary to watch, though, but Turner definitely has an uphill battle in it.

To be fair, Dennis Kucinich represented a Cleveland district once upon a time, so while this district in particular might have been pretty establishment in the past, Cleveland's record is a lot more mixed. Also, this district also obviously became a mega Dem pack in 2010, so that might have changes the dynamics of it in primaries (pretty sure Fudge has been the representative for the entire decade).

If Turner does pull it off, though, she's probably got the seat for the foreseeable future. That seat is only getting more Titanium after redistricting, especially if the GOP cracks the snake by the lake.

[Bootes Void]

How will redistricting affect this district in 2022? I assume Ohio will lose 2 EVs and I think they might split up Cleveland

[DrScholl]

Turner has won only one contested election in her career so I think it's premature to call her the front runner.

[DrScholl]

How will redistricting affect this district in 2022? I assume Ohio will lose 2 EVs and I think they might split up Cleveland

Cleveland can't be split unless you do a dummymander with a bunch of bacon strips into rural areas.

[KaiserDave]

And why is Nina Turner the frontrunner again?

And no, lining up out of state endorsements and her record of spending time everywhere but the district don't count.

[GALeftist]

How will redistricting affect this district in 2022? I assume Ohio will lose 2 EVs and I think they might split up Cleveland

Cleveland can't be split unless you do a dummymander with a bunch of bacon strips into rural areas.

Also isn't this district majority black? Probably runs into issues with the VRA. The 13th is way more at risk than this district, and like I said if they really want to go for broke they'll just try to nuke the 9th as well.

[kwabbit]

If Republicans are smart they would try to prop up Turner as much as possible in this race. The more visible Berniecrats sowing division in the party and openly discussing unpopular policy ideas the better for them.

Also, an AA district in Cleveland is definitely mandated by the VRA. The Republicans can't get rid of this district, but they can get rid of the Toledo/Lakeshore district and the Youngstown/Akron district.

[lfromnj]

Again there is literally 0 chance a 81% D district gets cracked. It will just retract to Cleveland and pick up Lakewood.

[Babeuf]

She has a shot. I donated to her campaign today, would be great to see her in Congress. She will likely have the most money and the most volunteers in a (potentially) crowded field, so that should be helpful.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1337749046518231040

Oh, I forgot to mention, it looks like Yang endorsed her, for whatever that's worth. Mark Ruffalo did too, adding to the progressive celebs.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/1338940000889569280

Tossup --> Titanium Nina

[If my soul was made of stone]

The Orb Mother has passed judgment, amen.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I'm actually okay with Nina going to Congress. The BS from some in Bernie crowd that they wouldn't vote for Biden unless he selected Turner as VP was just silly. She'd be a positive force for pushing for real policy change--at least more than some generic establishment D. Wishing her luck.

[Pyro]

Nina Turner in Congress would be spectacular. I've heard she is popular in her district, guess we'll see.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

What on earth are you saying? Samples LIVES in OH-11. Nina is the frontrunner here, like it or not. There's already stupid squabbling up in Cuyahoga about whether or not Shontel Brown needs to step down from her role as Cuyahoga County Democratic Chairwoman, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman, or both. The establishment has to avoid this sort of sh**t if they're going to win, and they're not at all on track.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/nina-turner-announces-bid-to-succeed-marcia-fudge-in-congress.html

Turner announced. Looks like she's picked up endorsements from the typical progressive groups as well as Ro Khanna, Cori Bush, and Keith Ellison. Based on comments from yesterday Bernie will also likely endorse soon. Progressives seem to be lining up thus far, let's see if it holds up or can get Turner over the finish line.

Also endorsed by Killer Mike, Danny Glover, and Charlamagne tha God lol

Also endorsing her today: Akron Councilwoman Tara Samples (who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2018), former State Senate Minority Leader Eric Kearney of Cincinnati, and current State Senate Minority Leader Kenny Yuko. I distinctly remember being told in this thread that establishment figures would rally around whoever has the best shot of beating her?

They will.  So far the only endorsement she's gotten that's worth anything in this district is Kenny Yuko's; that was a very good get.  The rest (including Bernie's) aren't really worth much.  Even so, I stand by what I've said before both about her chances and what the Cuyahoga County Democratic establishment will ultimately do.

For example, Eric Kearney is a washed up has-been from Cincinnati who was last seen getting dropped from frigging Ed FitzGerald's ticket due to a series of tax scandals (you could almost say he was FitzGerald's Eagleton).  He has no pull in Cleveland.  Tara Samples is a City Councilwoman from Akron.  That's like bragging about being endorsed by a Staten Island State Rep when you're running in the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor

What on earth are you saying? Samples LIVES in OH-11. Nina is the frontrunner here, like it or not. There's already stupid squabbling up in Cuyahoga about whether or not Shontel Brown needs to step down from her role as Cuyahoga County Democratic Chairwoman, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman, or both. The establishment has to avoid this sort of sh**t if they're going to win, and they're not at all on track.

I’m saying Akron isn’t gonna decide this thing, Cuyahoga County will.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1338970272129572864

Not a surprise by any means, but Bernie endorses Turner