Special Election megathread (AZ-7: primary 7/15, general 9/23; VA-11: 9/9; TX-18: 11/4)

[Duke of York]

St Johns will likely see the biggest Trump > Fine shift of the night at 22%

Probably means overall swing would not be enough to have swung NY-21, although would have been a next day or later call given how slow NY counts.

So there was no reason to pull the nomination.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Counties that are fully in

Shift towards Ds from Trump

Flagler: 14% shift
Volusia: 15% shift
Lake: 17% shift
St Johns: 22% shift

This might be off-topic and too big for this megathread, but I wonder what Florida would've looked like if these swings were uniformly applied to the state on Election Night 2024....

[Compuzled_One]

I gotta say, at least Weil outdid my expectations. Hopefully Valimont and Crawford do the same.

[wbrocks67]

St Johns will likely see the biggest Trump > Fine shift of the night at 22%

Probably means overall swing would not be enough to have swung NY-21, although would have been a next day or later call given how slow NY counts.

So there was no reason to pull the nomination.

Yes there was lol, the OP is being pretty ridiculous there. We've seen shifts of 14%, 15%, 17%, 22% tonight. That makes NY-21 a complete tossup.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Volusia county is interesting. It's not exactly ancestral Dem since it voted R a decent amount before Bill Clinton. From 1992-2008 it was consistent Dem wins until Romney narrowly flipped it back and Trump extended it into double digits.

[Lief 🗽]

Fine is going to win by like 11-12% it looks like? Pretty bad performance especially considering relatively high turnout and the Democratic candidate turned out to be a grifter who got outspent despite raising 8 figures of cash.

[wbrocks67]

Despite the election day cavalry, it looks like Fine will likely have a worse underperformance than the R did in the PA special last week.

[kwabbit]

Completed Counties:
St. Johns: 30% Bachelor's Degree Attainment, Trump +32 -> Fine +11
Flagler: 27% Bachelor's Degree Attainment, Trump +28 -> Fine +15
Volusia: 27% Bachelor's Degree Attainment, Trump +17 -> Fine +2
Lake: 22% Bachelor's Degree Attainment, Trump +34 -> Fine +17

Still Counting:
Marion: 19% Bachelor's Degree Attainment, Trump +41 -> Fine + ?
Putnam: 13% Bachelor's Degree Attainment, Trump +48 -> Fine + ?

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

St Johns will likely see the biggest Trump > Fine shift of the night at 22%

Probably means overall swing would not be enough to have swung NY-21, although would have been a next day or later call given how slow NY counts.

So there was no reason to pull the nomination.

Yes there was lol, the OP is being pretty ridiculous there. We've seen shifts of 14%, 15%, 17%, 22% tonight. That makes NY-21 a complete tossup.

Yes, Rs did have a valid reason to put her nomination on the chopping block. Losing even one seat makes things harder for Johnson.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Volusia county is interesting. It's not exactly ancestral Dem since it voted R a decent amount before Bill Clinton. From 1992-2008 it was consistent Dem wins until Romney narrowly flipped it back and Trump extended it into double digits.

And it was notably close (for Governor) on otherwise GOP-friendly nights during the 2010 and 2014 midterms.  

[Oryxslayer]

Santa Rosa EV is Patronis+7.

Walton EV is 66/33 Patronis

I think it's already callable, but hey, maybe there will be a measurable swing in a Deep South seat after all.

[Compuzled_One]

How good is this?

[wbrocks67]

Santa Rosa EV is Patronis +7.

Total vote there last year was Gaetz +46, so already looks like there could be another decent overperformance brewing if Patronis even ultimately gets to like +30 by the end.

[Crumpets]

Despite the election day cavalry, it looks like Fine will likely have a worse underperformance than the R did in the PA special last week.

There will come a day when Atlas learns not to put stock in election day turnout reports. But it is not this day.

[Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN Projection:

Jimmy Patronis
Republican   12,300   +56.3%56.3%
Gay Valimont
Democrat   9,338   +42.8%42.8
Stephen Broden
Independent   202   +0.9%0.9

[Just Some Guy]

Santa Rosa EV is Patronis+7.

Walton EV is 66/33 Patronis

I think it's already callable, but hey, maybe there will be a measurable swing in a Deep South seat after all.

DD has already called it.

[Atlas Force]

How good is this?

Santa Rosa isn’t the part of the district that has Pensacola in it so…

[Oryxslayer]

Also, reminder since everyone is over here, Wisconsin discussion is in the gubernatorial board not this one.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Also, reminder since everyone is over here, Wisconsin discussion is in the gubernatorial board not this one.

GM and I are splitting an Uber if anybody wants a ride over. 

[kwabbit]

Santa Rosa EV is Patronis+7.

Walton EV is 66/33 Patronis

I think it's already callable, but hey, maybe there will be a measurable swing in a Deep South seat after all.

The district has been quietly trending Dem for a while now. Trump 2016 > Trump 2024 IIRC. It could be possible for Gay Valimont to win Escambia.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Escambia has flipped blue.

[Oryxslayer]

How good is this?

Santa Rosa isn’t the part of the district that has Pensacola in it so…

Valimont takes the lead with the Escambia(Pensacola) EV!

Yeah it's not gonna last, and prob get smacked down harder than in the 6th, but yeah, another sizable Dem overperformance.

[Atlas Force]

“Gay Valimont” sounds like a steampunk character

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Escambia being blue is also a bad suburban omen for Wisconsin.

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

It’s nice of them to schedule the elections an hour apart each for us election nerds to get maximum mileage out of it