Special Election megathread (AZ-7: primary 7/15, general 9/23; VA-11: 9/9; TX-18: 11/4)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Penn Quaker Girl is officially a Dem now? Might be time for me to formally switch.

For the next four hours, anyway

Do you plan to go back to using a PA avatar or will you keep a TX avatar outside Election Day

Cutting this off before we get off-topic, but I always switch to a PA avatar on election day. Texas is my forever home state, tho. 

[wbrocks67]

Does FL-01 close at 8pm ET?

[Just Some Guy]

Does FL-01 close at 8pm ET?

Yes.

[Atlas Force]

Yeah FL-01 is in the part of Florida that uses Central time

[Duke of York]

Weil couldn't even keep Volusia. Kind of surprising honestly.

It’s clear some people will vote Republican no matter how bad the candidate is.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine being bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

Religious minority and a member of the LGBTQ+ community who has rehabilitated himself.

Sounds like a S tier candidate. 

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

I just realized Fine is a carpet bagger.. how was that not a bigger issue

[Just Some Guy]

Fine seems on track for probably a 10-11% win, which would be a 10% underperformance based on party reg (R+21)

Waltz (R+33) and Trump (R+30) both performed above the baseline in 2024 (R+26)

It's not terrible(for as bad as a Fine is)? I honestly was expecting Fine to do worse; like a single high digit win(5-7%)

[wbrocks67]

St Johns will likely see the biggest Trump > Fine shift of the night at 22%

https://twitter.com/VoteHubUS/status/1907217741334909364

[Arizona Iced Tea]

[Oryxslayer]

Does FL-01 close at 8pm ET?

Panhandle time zones.

Some thoughts: this district is part of the true south, the GOP candidate isn't Fine. I would not be surprised if there is a pitiful swing outside of  Pensacola city cause the Deep south doesn't swing unless really pushed to. But maybe there will, we'll see.

[soundchaser]

Yes, thank you, we established Fine’s win a while ago.

[Just Some Guy]

I just realized Fine is a carpet bagger.. how was that not a bigger issue

Because Weil was also a carpetbagger. The man just kept renting Airbnbs with campaign expenses.

[wbrocks67]

Fine seems on track for probably a 10-11% win, which would be a 10% underperformance based on party reg (R+21)

Waltz (R+33) and Trump (R+30) both performed above the baseline in 2024 (R+26)

It's not terrible(for as bad as a Fine is)? I honestly was expecting Fine to do worse; like a single high digit win(5-7%)

I mean he's not doing a *whole* lot better than that, especially given the R ED surge. The turnout ratio only being 5% below 2024 was never gonna produce Fine +5, even with amazing persuasion

[Atlas Force]

I just realized Fine is a carpet bagger.. how was that not a bigger issue

I mean it’s Florida, it’s not like most of the people in that district were born there

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yes, thank you, we established Fine’s win a while ago.

Sorry, I just love CNN election graphics.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine being bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

Religious minority and a member of the LGBTQ+ community who has rehabilitated himself.

Sounds like a S tier candidate. 

A crappy candidate who kept your crappy candidate to a less than 10% win potentially.

[wbrocks67]

Does FL-01 close at 8pm ET?

Panhandle time zones.

Some thoughts: this district is part of the true south, the GOP candidate isn't Fine. I would not be surprised if there is a pitiful swing outside of  Pensacola city cause the Deep south doesn't swing unless really pushed to. But maybe there will, we'll see.

The turnout was 10% less than 2024, R+39 vs. R+29. So if we're getting a visa-a-vis performance closer to a normal election, Ds looking at likely at least a 10% overperformance

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Yes, thank you, we established Fine’s win a while ago.

Sorry, I just love CNN election graphics.

Whoever does their election graphics deserves a prize, they really are super crisp and clean. 

[Spectator]

Wait so neither Weil nor Fine could vote for themselves? Sounds like Florida got the choice they deserve.

[Just Some Guy]

Yes, thank you, we established Fine’s win a while ago.

Sorry, I just love CNN election graphics.

Whoever does their election graphics deserves a prize, they really are super crisp and clean.  

They're great! I just hate the stupid panel.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

St Johns will likely see the biggest Trump > Fine shift of the night at 22%

Probably means overall swing would not be enough to have swung NY-21, although would have been a next day or later call given how slow NY counts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Penn Quaker Girl is officially a Dem now? Might be time for me to formally switch.

It's her April Fool tradition.  But you're both welcome to switch!

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Weil couldn't even keep Volusia. Kind of surprising honestly.

It’s clear some people will vote Republican no matter how bad the candidate is.

To be expected in a two-party system.

[wbrocks67]

Counties that are fully in

Shift towards Ds from Trump

Flagler: 14% shift
Volusia: 15% shift
Lake: 17% shift
St Johns: 22% shift