Special Election megathread (AZ-7: primary 7/15, general 9/23; VA-11: 9/9; TX-18: 11/4)

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1907214401045770484

Not every Republican is a carpet bagging Ben Gvir wannabe.. so difficult to do a like for like comparsion.

I mean it's not a solitary data point. The better rebuttal is that in a GE, the swing won't be so large.

But halve it and average with the other special swings and Dems still have a very good 2026

[Don't Tread on Me]

Randy Fine was a uniquely bad candidate. At least wait for FL-01 before making any sweeping assumptions.

FL-01 is also intriguing though because it went more under the radar and the D actually did considerably outspend the R

I have a feeling it’ll be a repeat of the June 20, 2017 SC/GA specials where all the attention was on Ossoff/Handel and meanwhile in SC-06 no one was watching and democrats came a hairs closer to flipping it

Or like how the Dobbs decision energized Dems through at least the midterms. The biggest difference is that the winds were taken out of there by moderates/independents when Trump promised he wouldn't sign a national abortion ban. The most logical way the winds could be taken out of here is if Trump fired Musk which has an extremely slim chance of actually happening.

[Ferguson97]

Fine is automatically a Bottom 10 Congressman, but wow... what a hilarious underperformance. I can see why they pulled the Stefanik nomination.

[Spectator]

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine being bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

[Atlas Force]

Volusia 90% in

Weil +0.7

(Waltz +21, Trump +17)

Oh wow

[Atlas Force]

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine bing bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

Bruh I didn’t even know about the “bisexual” and “Muslim” parts until I saw this post haha

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Volusia 90% in

Weil +0.7

(Waltz +21, Trump +17)

The suburban counties of Wisconsin are about to be a bloodbath. Talk about a bad omen for the GOP.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Given that we're seeing shifts of 14-22% from Trump, it's very clear why Stefanik was pulled. That seat would've 100% been danger of flipping.

And also its in NY, a republican friendly seat... but still in NY.

Yes, but presumably with a nominee who’s stronger than Fine.

There is no guarantee of that with the current GOP.

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine being bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

The arrests part might have helped him.

[wbrocks67]

NYT says the final(ish) turnout in FL-01 was R+29

2024 ws R+39...


They have FL-06 at R+21 turnout for final. Obv Fine +8.3 right now with 82% in

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Volusia 90% in

Weil +0.7

(Waltz +21, Trump +17)

Yikes.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Given that we're seeing shifts of 14-22% from Trump, it's very clear why Stefanik was pulled. That seat would've 100% been danger of flipping.

And also its in NY, a republican friendly seat... but still in NY.

Not backed by facts but it seems like blue state Reps are more likely to remain Republicans since they dislike their state government's leadership. But NY-23 isn't solid enough that it couldn't flip during a particularly strong wave, especially if Stefanik isn't on the ballot.

[Just Some Guy]

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine bing bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

He also hit someone's child as a teacher.

[wbrocks67]

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine being bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

Also clear that Republicans who came out today really didn't care that Fine was awful lol

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Todays turnout is R:52%, D:31%, I:16%
2024 was R:52% D:26% I:22%

So yes R turnout is the same as November, but Dems vs Indies is a decent shift + fine being a weak candidate so naturally he would do worse with them than Trump.

[Duke of York]

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine bing bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

He also hit someone's child as a teacher.

And many clearly didn’t care.

[Eidolon]

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine being bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

Nowadays people don't care. All they look for is either an R or a D next to their name.

[Spectator]

Penn Quaker Girl is officially a Dem now? Might be time for me to formally switch.

[wbrocks67]

Fine seems on track for probably a 10-11% win, which would be a 10% underperformance based on party reg (R+21)

Waltz (R+33) and Trump (R+30) both performed above the baseline in 2024 (R+26)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Penn Quaker Girl is officially a Dem now? Might be time for me to formally switch.

For the next four hours, anyway

[Horus]

Let’s not act like this is solely due to Fine being bad. Weil wasn’t exactly a good fit either as a bisexual Muslim with multiple arrests LOL.

Funny, this entire time I thought he was also Jewish. Just makes his overperformance even more remarkable

[Just Some Guy]

Weil couldn't even keep Volusia. Kind of surprising honestly.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Fine has edged ahead in Volusia.

Most underserved county sweep in awhile

[OSR stands with Israel]

Penn Quaker Girl is officially a Dem now? Might be time for me to formally switch.

For the next four hours, anyway

Do you plan to go back to using a PA avatar or will you keep a TX avatar outside Election Day

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

Weil couldn't even keep Volusia.

The fact he kept it close at all is a miracle enough of the cold water

[Compuzled_One]

Given that we're seeing shifts of 14-22% from Trump, it's very clear why Stefanik was pulled. That seat would've 100% been danger of flipping.

And also its in NY, a republican friendly seat... but still in NY.

Yes, but presumably with a nominee who’s stronger than Fine.

That seat was about to become a 3 way contest, and not because the left split.