Special Election megathread (AZ-7: primary 7/15, general 9/23; VA-11: 9/9; TX-18: 11/4)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The thing that is striking to me is not the expected underperformance, it's how poorly he underperformed with similar demographics to November 2024. Special elections rarely correlate with midterms (if that were the case then 2018 would've been a Dem tsunami), but if trends hold up it can't be good for the GOP. And this is before most people have been personally impacted by DOGE.

1) You look good in blue

2) Yeah despite Trump inevitably claiming that "nobody thought Fine would win" and that it was a sweeping victory, this doesn't necessarily bode well for the GOP in 2026, with the obvious caveat that those midterms are quite a ways away.  

[Duke of York]

I assume the demographics are better for Dems in St Johns and Volusia?

Voulsia is Daytona Beach so yes.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Randy Fine was a uniquely bad candidate. At least wait for FL-01 before making any sweeping assumptions.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Fully in:

Lake - D+20% overperformance
Flagler - D+17% overperformance

(from Waltz)

St Johns - 95% in

Waltz +36
Fine +10

D+26% overperformance!

while i would have liked for Weil to have won if that's what it is in Florida than i wonder if we see the same in Wisconsin.

Crawford is almost certain to win, but I think that Florida's older population caused a bigger swing compared to what we'll see in WI. But anything could happen.

[Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN Projection

Randy Fine
Republican 77,181 +53.7%53.7%
Josh Weil
Democrat 65,552 +45.6%45.6
Andrew Parrott
Libertarian 581 +0.4%0.4
Randall Terry
Independent 457 +0.3%0.3

[wbrocks67]

Randy Fine was a uniquely bad candidate. At least wait for FL-01 before making any sweeping assumptions.

FL-01 is also intriguing though because it went more under the radar and the D actually did considerably outspend the R

[Atlas Force]

Fully in:

Lake - D+20% overperformance
Flagler - D+17% overperformance

(from Waltz)

St Johns - 95% in

Waltz +36
Fine +10

D+26% overperformance!

Is that where Weil is from lol

[Just Some Guy]

I honestly just feel bad that people donated to Valimont(Especially Valimont considering this will be her 2nd pretty pathetic loss) & Weil. They essentially helped made them more better off in their personal life.

[Existing in the context]

Randy Fine was a uniquely bad candidate. At least wait for FL-01 before making any sweeping assumptions.

Patronis was a high tier candidate tho.

[Don't Tread on Me]

The thing that is striking to me is not the expected underperformance, it's how poorly he underperformed with similar demographics to November 2024. Special elections rarely correlate with midterms (if that were the case then 2018 would've been a Dem tsunami), but if trends hold up it can't be good for the GOP. And this is before most people have been personally impacted by DOGE.

1) You look good in blue

Thanks

[wbrocks67]

NYT - 72% in

Fine +8.1

Fine 53.7%
Weil 45.6%

3 counties left, Marion and Putnam are more R but Volusia is the biggest and could still possibly hang onto a Weil lead by the end by a whisker

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

Being kept to 10% in an electorate that favors you by 20% is embarrassing

[Just Some Guy]

Randy Fine was a uniquely bad candidate. At least wait for FL-01 before making any sweeping assumptions.

FL-01 is also intriguing though because it went more under the radar and the D actually did considerably outspend the R

Doesn't matter. Valimont will get crushed.
Patronis probably barely underperforms Gatez by 2-5ish%.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Can't wait for people in 2026 to post ST Pete polls again unironically.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Randy Fine was a uniquely bad candidate. At least wait for FL-01 before making any sweeping assumptions.

FL-01 is also intriguing though because it went more under the radar and the D actually did considerably outspend the R

Doesn't matter. Valimont will get crushed.
Patronis probably barely underperforms Gatez by 2-5ish%.

Expectis Patronis.

[wbrocks67]

Randy Fine was a uniquely bad candidate. At least wait for FL-01 before making any sweeping assumptions.

FL-01 is also intriguing though because it went more under the radar and the D actually did considerably outspend the R

Doesn't matter. Valimont will get crushed.
Patronis probably barely underperforms Gatez by 2-5ish%.

I wouldn't be so sure - last I saw the turnout electorate was like R+29 in FL-01, compared to R+39 in 2024. We'll see.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1907214401045770484

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

Randy Fine was a uniquely bad candidate. At least wait for FL-01 before making any sweeping assumptions.

FL-01 is also intriguing though because it went more under the radar and the D actually did considerably outspend the R

I have a feeling it’ll be a repeat of the June 20, 2017 SC/GA specials where all the attention was on Ossoff/Handel and meanwhile in SC-05 no one was watching and democrats came a hairs closer to flipping it

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Fully in:

Lake - D+20% overperformance
Flagler - D+17% overperformance

(from Waltz)

St Johns - 95% in

Waltz +36
Fine +10

D+26% overperformance!

Florida may have gotten more red, but threatening to cut social security there is just as toxic as ever.

yet people still voted Republican.

It's a red district and Rs are gonna lose WI

[wbrocks67]

Given that we're seeing shifts of 14-22% from Trump, it's very clear why Stefanik was pulled. That seat would've 100% been danger of flipping.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Randy Fine was a uniquely bad candidate. At least wait for FL-01 before making any sweeping assumptions.

FL-01 is also intriguing though because it went more under the radar and the D actually did considerably outspend the R

I have a feeling it’ll be a repeat of the June 20, 2017 SC/GA specials where all the attention was on Ossoff/Handel and meanwhile in SC-06 no one was watching and democrats came a hairs closer to flipping it

SC-06 is def up there with one of my most shocking results in a district that didn't end up flipping. 

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1907214401045770484

Not every Republican is a carpet bagging Ben Gvir wannabe.. so difficult to do a like for like comparsion.

[Just Some Guy]

Given that we're seeing shifts of 14-22% from Trump, it's very clear why Stefanik was pulled. That seat would've 100% been danger of flipping.

And also its in NY, a republican friendly seat... but still in NY.

[wbrocks67]

Volusia 90% in

Weil +0.7

(Waltz +21, Trump +17)

[Roll Roons]

Given that we're seeing shifts of 14-22% from Trump, it's very clear why Stefanik was pulled. That seat would've 100% been danger of flipping.

And also its in NY, a republican friendly seat... but still in NY.

Yes, but presumably with a nominee who’s stronger than Fine.