Special Election megathread (AZ-7: primary 7/15, general 9/23; VA-11: 9/9; TX-18: 11/4)

[Compuzled_One]

Damn, these third party candidates ain't worth jack.

[Horus]

Why has kakyomeme not been banned?

This place is unquestionably the most fairly moderated political forum I've ever encountered, but center-center left establishment Dems still have a slightly longer leash.

[Eidolon]

Of course there was no chance Weil was winning this, but it's fun seeing how badly Fine is underperforming right now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Congrats to Randy Fine. Horrible candidate and I hope he gets primaried out next year, but Trump needs this house seat for his agenda.

[GALeftist]

I just hope both teams had fun

[Nyvin]

If Fine didn't get the last minute E-Day surge there's a good chance he could've lost.   

That's pathetic really.

[wbrocks67]

We could be looking at about a 10% underperformance for Rs compared to party reg. Prob like R+22 turnout vs. R+12 result

Wonder if we'll see the same in FL-06 or better/worse

[Duke of York]

im never donating a penny to a red district like this again. In a sane country Fine would have lost.

[Atlas Force]

We could be looking at about a 10% underperformance for Rs compared to party reg. Prob like R+22 turnout vs. R+12 result

Wonder if we'll see the same in FL-06 or better/worse

You mean FL-01

[Spectator]

Anyone still doubting Crawford? If Dems are overperforming in Florida by double digits with no real turnout advantage, I can only imagine the slaughter that’s about to happen in Wisconsin.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Someone remind me:  is FL-01 in that part of Florida that follows central time? 

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

im never donating a penny to a red district like this again. In a sane country Fine would have lost.

Our donations mean very little

[Sestak]

Someone remind me:  is FL-01 in that part of Florida that follows central time? 

Yes

[Atlas Force]

Wikipedia is fast they already have Fine as Rep-elect on their page for FL-06 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida%27s_6th_congressional_district

[wbrocks67]

Fully in:

Lake - D+20% overperformance
Flagler - D+17% overperformance

(from Waltz)

[Duke of York]

Anyone still doubting Crawford? If Dems are overperforming in Florida by double digits with no real turnout advantage, I can only imagine the slaughter that’s about to happen in Wisconsin.

I would hope the same over performance happens there but after 2024 i expect to be disappointed until im not.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anyone still doubting Crawford? If Dems are overperforming in Florida by double digits with no real turnout advantage, I can only imagine the slaughter that’s about to happen in Wisconsin.

Now that is what I was truly eager for today.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone still doubting Crawford? If Dems are overperforming in Florida by double digits with no real turnout advantage, I can only imagine the slaughter that’s about to happen in Wisconsin.

Yep, persuasion was still an issue for the Reps in FL, so I'm curious how it ends up in WI.

[Don't Tread on Me]

The thing that is striking to me is not the expected underperformance, it's how poorly he underperformed with similar demographics to the 2024 elections. Special elections rarely correlate with midterms (if that were the case then 2018 would've been a Dem tsunami), but if these trends hold up then it can't be good for the GOP. And this is before most people have been personally impacted by DOGE.

[wbrocks67]

Fully in:

Lake - D+20% overperformance
Flagler - D+17% overperformance

(from Waltz)

St Johns - 95% in

Waltz +36
Fine +10

D+26% overperformance!

[Don't Tread on Me]

Fully in:

Lake - D+20% overperformance
Flagler - D+17% overperformance

(from Waltz)

St Johns - 95% in

Waltz +36
Fine +10

D+26% overperformance!

Florida may have gotten more red, but threatening to cut social security there is just as toxic as ever.

[wbrocks67]

The thing that is striking to me is not the expected underperformance, it's how poorly he underperformed with similar demographics to the 2024 elections. Special elections rarely correlate with midterms (if that were the case then 2018 would've been a Dem tsunami), but if these trends hold up then it can't be good for the GOP. And this is before most people have been personally impacted by DOGE.

Yeah, this special is going to have decent turnout and a reg that is only 4% under last year. R+26 vs. R+22. And yet...

[Duke of York]

Fully in:

Lake - D+20% overperformance
Flagler - D+17% overperformance

(from Waltz)

St Johns - 95% in

Waltz +36
Fine +10

D+26% overperformance!

while i would have liked for Weil to have won if that's what it is in Florida than i wonder if we see the same in Wisconsin.

[wbrocks67]

I assume the demographics are better for Dems in St Johns and Volusia?

[Duke of York]

Fully in:

Lake - D+20% overperformance
Flagler - D+17% overperformance

(from Waltz)

St Johns - 95% in

Waltz +36
Fine +10

D+26% overperformance!

Florida may have gotten more red, but threatening to cut social security there is just as toxic as ever.

yet people still voted Republican.