Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)
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Author Topic: Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)  (Read 133570 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #2475 on: February 21, 2023, 07:45:01 PM »

McClellan is doing far better than McEachin across the district. Almost 70% for McClellan.

Margin will probably shrink a little, ED vs Early votes etc, but looks like it will end up around the 22 margin.

I take that back, in the counties that are almost done counting McClellan is outpreforming McEachin.
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #2476 on: February 21, 2023, 07:50:09 PM »

Obviously this is a Safe D district, but McClellan's current overperformance is making me wonder what the 2021 gubernatorial election might've looked like if she had won the primary instead of McAuliffe.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #2477 on: February 21, 2023, 07:55:49 PM »

NYT says Southampton's >95% in and she's winning it by 14 points, wtf
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2478 on: February 21, 2023, 08:01:12 PM »

Wow, this is the first time a McLennan has won battles in Virginia. (the early 1860s doesn't count).
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #2479 on: February 21, 2023, 08:08:08 PM »

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2480 on: February 21, 2023, 08:10:04 PM »

McClellan wins Dinwiddle County, which was over 60% for Benjamin in November
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #2481 on: February 21, 2023, 08:18:08 PM »

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2482 on: February 21, 2023, 08:23:40 PM »



Surprise surprise: all three are in their early 50s.
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Sestak
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« Reply #2483 on: February 21, 2023, 08:31:20 PM »

Wow, this is the first time a McLennan has won battles in Virginia. (the early 1860s doesn't count).

On the other hand, a McClellan fleeing Richmond for DC is a fairly routine sight.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2484 on: February 21, 2023, 08:31:55 PM »

Wow, this is the first time a McLennan has won battles in Virginia. (the early 1860s doesn't count).

On the other hand, a McClellan fleeing Richmond for DC is a fairly routine sight.
True.
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Gracile
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« Reply #2485 on: February 21, 2023, 08:37:12 PM »

Well, I was wrong. This is another impressive showing for Democrats in House special elections.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2486 on: February 21, 2023, 08:40:57 PM »

Damn, these results are wild. I know that low turnout special elections can give strange outcomes, but it's nice to see that Democratic voters continue to be engaged and energetic.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2487 on: February 21, 2023, 08:43:16 PM »

Since specials are weird:
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #2488 on: February 22, 2023, 01:59:33 AM »

Since specials are weird:


Ah I remember Gainesville. Quite Republican area
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2489 on: February 22, 2023, 10:41:26 AM »

Damn, these results are wild. I know that low turnout special elections can give strange outcomes, but it's nice to see that Democratic voters continue to be engaged and energetic.

Yes, also this is not the kind of district where you would expect Dems to overperform in a special.  Could be a very good sign for VA legislative Dems, because there are several swing seats in both chambers that are all or mostly within this CD.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2490 on: February 22, 2023, 11:43:51 AM »

Damn, McLellan might actually hit +50% when the final mail-ins/absentees trickle in!
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #2491 on: February 22, 2023, 02:08:43 PM »

Damn, these results are wild. I know that low turnout special elections can give strange outcomes, but it's nice to see that Democratic voters continue to be engaged and energetic.

Yes, also this is not the kind of district where you would expect Dems to overperform in a special.  Could be a very good sign for VA legislative Dems, because there are several swing seats in both chambers that are all or mostly within this CD.

Everything I have seen recently suggests to me that Northern VA remains solid Dem but it is clear the anti-trump people only people have largely reverted back to the GOP, but Hampton Roads and Richmond area are moving left very consistently.

I do not know if mcclellan could have won statewide in 2021, but may have saved a few southern state legislative seats.

JCF, despite being declared an unbeatable titan by the online left, would have lost by at least five.

But the issues in 2021 would have been challenging for any Democrat in VA.
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
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« Reply #2492 on: February 23, 2023, 11:05:28 PM »

McClellan has mad a comeback in a big way. She got only 58,000 in a statewide gubernatorial primary, but now has gotten 80,000 in a special congressional election, with around 75% of the vote. She’s also 50, so a long career ahead. She could very easily be the next governor or senator if she wants it (and it seems she does). I’d be nice if Warner retires in 2026.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2493 on: February 26, 2023, 04:29:35 PM »

Tiny VA-04 update, nearly 700 more votes counted

McClellan (D) 81,304 — 74.4%
Benjamin (R) 28,040 — 25.6%

McClellan gains from +48.6 to +48.8. Not sure if that was just additional e-day or that was all the extra absentee.
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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #2494 on: February 28, 2023, 05:42:49 PM »

Too early to tell what this might forebode for 2024, but people don't seem to like the GOP Congress that much. A 9 point Swing using 2022 as a baseline leaves us with a 242-193 map. We need more Data but this is Bad news for the GOP in 2024.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2495 on: March 01, 2023, 09:16:45 AM »

Another ~700 votes counted, most go to McClellan. She rises to +49.0

McClellan (D) 82,028 — 74.5%
Benjamin (R) 28,083 — 25.5%
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Sestak
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« Reply #2496 on: March 07, 2023, 06:15:32 PM »

McClellan was sworn in today, putting the House at full contingent.
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JMT
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« Reply #2497 on: May 30, 2023, 12:41:33 PM »

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2498 on: May 30, 2023, 04:12:53 PM »

Cicilline's resignation taking effect Thursday. Expect a primary on September 5 and General on November 7.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2499 on: May 30, 2023, 06:16:51 PM »

Cicilline's resignation taking effect Thursday. Expect a primary on September 5 and General on November 7.

So RI-01 and UT-02 will remain vacant until at least November?
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